JTH's Account Talk

[shitepoke]

Wow- i know stock futures dont hold two days out but wtf...
is it some country defaulting or what? E

 

[bmneveu]

Wow- i know stock futures dont hold two days out but wtf...
is it some country defaulting or what? E

Wow is right! S&P futures are at 1990, down 33 points. Jeez.

 

[JTH]

Wow- i know stock futures dont hold two days out but wtf...
is it some country defaulting or what? E

Wow is right! S&P futures are at 1990, down 33 points. Jeez.

Futures are closed, you're not looking at the futures, you're looking at Friday's close, it will stay the same until the futures open.

 

[bmneveu]

Futures are closed, you're not looking at the futures, you're looking at Friday's close, it will stay the same until the futures open.

Pre-Market Data

Says we are sitting at 1990 (1994 after fair value). I guess that is where the aftermarket trading took us to on Friday evening. That's where premarket will resume trading early Monday morning?

 

[JTH]

Wow- i know stock futures dont hold two days out but wtf...
is it some country defaulting or what? E

Pre-Market Data

Says we are sitting at 1990 (1994 after fair value). I guess that is where the aftermarket trading took us to on Friday evening. That's where premarket will resume trading early Monday morning?

Don't know, just know it's not moving and won't move again till we're open. I watch the futures often, they haven't moved since the close on Friday.

 

[JTH]

A quick view of what can happen when the Bollinger Bands get compressed, as illustrated with the Bollinger Band Width Indicator.

If things go as this chart would seem to suggest, if prices continue to fall rapidly, then we should continue to see an expansion of the Bollinger Band Width indicator.

View attachment 31558

 

[MrJohnRoss]

If things go as this chart would seem to suggest, if prices continue to fall rapidly, then we should continue to see an expansion of the Bollinger Band Width indicator.

I certainly think volatility could go very high. Not only is there a concern for stocks, but the oil shock is still playing out. Lot of global instability thrown in there for good measure.

 

[JTH]

I certainly think volatility could go very high. Not only is there a concern for stocks, but the oil shock is still playing out. Lot of global instability thrown in there for good measure.

Oil needs to take a stand this week...I find it difficult to believe these energy based large cap companies are willing to use a "scorched earth" policy, just to make a few extra nickles. That's right folks, the oil giants care more about profits, than the world economy....

 

[JTH]

Five PnF signals triggered over the past 2 days

Phrase of the day, confirmation pending.

Last week the PnFs posted sell signals for the major indexes, that signal was on target. I posted "Confirmation Pending" and the next day the downside confirmation was confirmed.

Now back in September, the Indexes took on some major damage and I never did like how we handled it. From a TA standpoint, we never re-tested those lows, this is what kept me out for the markets for too long, and this is one of the main reasons my performance this year is below average. For the long-term projections, there are a few arguments I could make.

1) We are forming the Head of a MAJOR Head and Double Shoulder formation, which ultimately leads to a 2015 Summer Top @ 2015, with a Winter Low at 1745

2) We fill the 1905 gap, then rally above 2300 for the year

3) We test 1930 and rally to 2222 for the year

But for now, I'm more focused on the short-term, and what I am currently seeing is a good place for the bulls to take a stand this week, meaning this week we put in the lows and rally into year's end. The chart below is the SPXS ETF, the 3X inverse of the S&P 500. We need to fail to overtake 23.18's 50% retracement of the 2042-26.13 wave. From there, we need to upset the current uptrend and breakdown the higher Xs & Os. Also, if you look at the candlestick chart, you'll see a ramp-up in volume, we need volume to drop off because volume is confirming the bullish price action.

View attachment 31560
View attachment 31561

 

[airlift]

Last week the PnFs posted sell signals for the major indexes, that signal was on target. I posted "Confirmation Pending" and the next day the downside confirmation was confirmed.

Now back in September, the Indexes took on some major damage and I never did like how we handled it. From a TA standpoint, we never re-tested those lows, this is what kept me out for the markets for too long, and this is one of the main reasons my performance this year is below average. For the long-term projections, there are a few arguments I could make.

1) We are forming the Head of a MAJOR Head and Double Shoulder formation, which ultimately leads to a 2015 Summer Top @ 2015, with a Winter Low at 1745

2) We fill the 1905 gap, then rally above 2300 for the year

3) We test 1930 and rally to 2222 for the year

But for now, I'm more focused on the short-term, and what I am currently seeing is a good place for the bulls to take a stand this week, meaning this week we put in the lows and rally into year's end. The chart below is the SPXS ETF, the 3X inverse of the S&P 500. We need to fail to overtake 23.18's 50% retracement of the 2042-26.13 wave. From there, we need to upset the current uptrend and breakdown the higher Xs & Os. Also, if you look at the candlestick chart, you'll see a ramp-up in volume, we need volume to drop off because volume is confirming the bullish price action.

View attachment 31560
View attachment 31561

JTH,

Do you think that the 3x leveraged SPXL and SPXS are good proxies to use for the SPX, instead of using the SPY? Tia.

 

[JTH]

JTH,

Do you think that the 3x leveraged SPXL and SPXS are good proxies to use for the SPX, instead of using the SPY? Tia.

From what I see, yes but I should also add I haven't been tracking the SPXL/SPXS ETFs for very long.

Putting SPXY/SPX/SPY side-side, with SPXL on a .75% box scale with the other 2 on a .25% box scale, they look almost identical.

View attachment 31563

 

[JTH]

A place of previous support and now resistance, watch the 2025 area.

View attachment 31571

 

[JTH]

Bla bla, I just make this stuff up!

Using the previous descending parallel price channel as a reference, we can use the Measured Move Down technique to surmise a 990 price target.

View attachment 31574

 

[JTH]

It's a new dawn on the horizon, USAA now offers trailing stops/limits, something I have needed to manage my accounts, when I can't be present to execute trades at the tops/bottoms.

 

[WorkFE]

1994 seems to be solid footing.
1984- Dyslexia

 

[JTH]

But for now, I'm more focused on the short-term, and what I am currently seeing is a good place for the bulls to take a stand this week, meaning this week we put in the lows and rally into year's end. The chart below is the SPXS ETF, the 3X inverse of the S&P 500. We need to fail to overtake 23.18's 50% retracement of the 2042-26.13 wave. From there, we need to upset the current uptrend and breakdown the higher Xs & Os. Also, if you look at the candlestick chart, you'll see a ramp-up in volume, we need volume to drop off because volume is confirming the bullish price action.

Bearish S&P 500 Leveraged 3X ETF SPXS gained more than my initial expectations, overtaking the 23.18 level, but settling at red-line A. I don't expect to pop over this resistance, but if we do, then I wouldn't be surprised to test 50% of the major wave at 25.17 (which happens to be the bullish price objective).

At this moment in time, I'm inclined to believe we will close tomorrow up, with Wednesday continuing the wave, but that wave has strong potential be a short-term bounce.

View attachment 31601
View attachment 31602

 

[99percent]

Never mind.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Bla bla, I just make this stuff up!

Using the previous descending parallel price channel as a reference, we can use the Measured Move Down technique to surmise a 990 price target.

View attachment 31574

990 would be a nice Christmas gift. Wrap that up and put that under the tree for me, will ya JTH?

 

[JTH]

___
After a sell signal 7 days ago, the NASDAQ 100 reaches its price objective.

If you look at the far right column, you will see the gap between the current price, and percentage away from a reversal. This is with the current columns of Xs & Os, if more columns get added, then it will change where the price reversal signal gets triggered. As it stands now, for the S&P 500 it would cost us 4.36% to wait for a bullish reversal.



View attachment 31620

___
After the 9 December breach of 2053.6 triggered a sell signal, the S&P 500 is within -.06% from reaching its price objective. Bottom picking is an art, some have chosen to jump in, while others such as myself choose to wait it out. Last Wednesday, this index lost 1.64% here's what I can tell you.

1) Santa's Seasonality starts now

2) Of the last 11 Wednesdays, only 3 closed up, with an average 11-day gain of -.17%

3) Of the last 11 Thursdays, 8 closed up, with an average 11-day gain of -.08% (4 of those days closed flat)

4) Of the last 11 Fridays, 8 closed up, with an average 11-day gain of .18% (last Friday closed down -1.62%)

What this might be suggesting is that an entry this Wed/Thur is best (if this is the window and type of data you are looking for)

View attachment 31621
View attachment 31622

 

[burrocrat]

What this might be suggesting is that an entry this Wed/Thur is best (if this is the window and type of data you are looking for)

i wish you had told me that yesterday.