JTH's Account Talk

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Mixed price action today, it looked to me like we're fixing to take the next leg down but it's a bit too early to call it.

AGG revises its price objective upwards again for the 2nd time.

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Modest gains for the Wilshire 4500 this week, in my view, the small caps are still underperforming. We can see that not only do we have overhead resistance to deal with, but we also have considerably more price congestion at these levels (when compared to the S&P 500).

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AGG loses .56% for the week and .43% on the day, with the F-Fund losing .51% for the week.

Friday we triggered another price reversal with a Double Bottom Breakdown, this is the third price reversal in 12 days (something we might find unusual) which reflects the recent expanding volatility. With that, we have a new bearish price objective at 109.16 which is a short -.42% away, next to the previous B trough from November and in the same area of heavy price congestion.

In the short-term AGG establishes 1 lower X & O.

In the long-term, we have a major high established at peak A, followed by the next lower high at peak C (coinciding with 45° trendline resistance.) Based on this, we may be on the cusp of establishing a major downtrend with a break below the B bottom.

What do I think? I think I'll avoid this fund until we figure out what's going on. I don't play the F-Fund looking for quick gains, I play it looking for slow & easy gains to be had over many days, and right now it's too volatile to make a stable play.

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There are times when we get a shift in the market's behavior (transitions) between indexes such as bonds, stocks & commodities. Today's leaders become tomorrow's losers and so the cycles goes. I believe we are now experiencing one of those times where the markets are working through a transition. What the outcome will be, I don't know, but I do know that it's our job to look for, identify, accept & choose.

AGG flips over to a sell and the Transports remain on a sell, otherwise everything else is in the green.

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AGG, revises its bearish price objective slightly upwards to 109.05

Transports erase the 6 higher Xs, and replaced them with 1 lower X and 2 lower Os.

NASDAQ 100 puts in a bearish price reversal with a Double Bottom Breakdown, this puts the two leading indexes in the bear camp.

View attachment 31490
 
JTH said:
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AGG, revises its bearish price objective slightly upwards to 109.05

Transports erase the 6 higher Xs, and replaced them with 1 lower X and 2 lower Os.

NASDAQ 100 puts in a bearish price reversal with a Double Bottom Breakdown, this puts the two leading indexes in the bear camp.

View attachment 31490
Click to expand...

SPX & W4500 put in bearish reversals this morning....
 
JTH said:
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W4500, declines -1.50% creating a new column of Os and giving us a High Pole Warning (demand yields to supply). Price retraces nearly all of the minor Fibonacci wave, another -.37% should trigger a Double Bottom Breakdown. Afterward we have strong support to test at 1025 (an area with 4 low Os)[/ATTACH]
Click to expand...

View attachment 31498
 
Looks like we tested it this morning but I missed the opportunity to pick up some TNA for the bounce. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
 
rspring said:
So my question to you is when do we buy the reversal?
Click to expand...

Depends on the trading timeframe, theoretically speaking, when the markets put in a reversal in unison, I wouldn't go against it with a contrarian TSP trade. Factor in the compressed Bollinger bands, 52-week highs, ect and I'll sit this out.
 
JTH said:
Depends on the trading timeframe, theoretically speaking, when the markets put in a reversal in unison, I wouldn't go against it with a contrarian TSP trade. Factor in the compressed Bollinger bands, 52-week highs, ect and I'll sit this out.
Click to expand...

Ok JT, with today's reversal from the test of the wilshire @ 1025 does this change your decision from a trading perspective (IRA not TSP) Thanks for your insight
 
rspring said:
Ok JT, with today's reversal from the test of the wilshire @ 1025 does this change your decision from a trading perspective (IRA not TSP) Thanks for your insight
Click to expand...

Hi Rspring

I'm not counting the 1025 reversal because it didn't trigger a bullish reversal on the .25% box scale PnF charts, those triggered with bearish price objectives and this is the scale I'm focused on. As for the more recent price action, over the past 8 days many of the indexes have produced descending parallel price channels, and I happen to think there is ample evidence for an explosive move to the downside. Right or wrong, this is my current perspective, one thing is certain at the moment, volatility is increasing...great for the scalping day-traders, not so great for the long-term folks looking for a decisive direction.

View attachment 31502
 
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Evening folks

It takes me a long time to crank out the PnF charts, so I'll keep this part out tonight. I've been busy cranking out next year's analysis, getting my 2015 trading plan in place, so my time is limited for the remainder of the year.

Five PnF signals triggered over the past 2 days

AGG: Higher X, lower O (trendless) Triggered Double Top Breakout today

SPX: 3 higher Xs, 1 lower O (strongest of the bunch) Triggered Bullish Signal Reversed/Double Bottom Breakdown today

W4500: Lower X, lower O (downtrend) Triggered Double Bottom Breakdown today

Tran: Lower X, 3 lower Os (escalating downtrend) Triggered Double Bottom Breakdown today, 2nd Double Bottom Breakdown in 9 days

NASDAQ 100: Lower X, lower O (downtrend) Triggered Double Bottom Breakdown on 8 Dec

View attachment 31503
 
JTH and Bquat - Had personal concerns to work through, but glad to say I am on the mend. For better or worse, I was left sitting on the sidelines during the past nearly two months. Managing finances and timing market entries was not high on my list of things to do.

No sense playing catch-up, every day is a new adventure now.

Thanks for your valued insight JTH.



JTH said:
Hi Rspring

I'm not counting the 1025 reversal because it didn't trigger a bullish reversal on the .25% box scale PnF charts, those triggered with bearish price objectives and this is the scale I'm focused on. As for the more recent price action, over the past 8 days many of the indexes have produced descending parallel price channels, and I happen to think there is ample evidence for an explosive move to the downside. Right or wrong, this is my current perspective, one thing is certain at the moment, volatility is increasing...great for the scalping day-traders, not so great for the long-term folks looking for a decisive direction.

View attachment 31502
Click to expand...
 
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