JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

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AGG gave us some exciting price action today (exciting for bonds) and triggered a Long Tail Up. The O column should get created on the open tomorrow, if it adds 2 more Os, then it should trigger a warning.

1) The pink line represents the impeding column of Os I'm expecting
2) Notice the reversal off the overhead resistance from the red 45° line
3) The orange zone is where we expect to see a tug-of-war with price

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[JTH]

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The broader markets put in a strong down day today, with the Transports triggering a Double Bottom Breakdown, along with W4500 & NASDAQ 100 signaling a High Pole warning. For Bonds, AGG saw increased volatility with a substantial price swing both to the upside & downside.

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For myself, I chose to exit to the G-Fund today, and wait this out to see what happens. The previous 13-day C-Fund allocation yielded .90%

 

[JTH]

Not much to report, aside from AGG signaling a High pole Warning. For stocks, the downside did not provide confirmation, so now we look for the upside to provide confirmation.

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[kave]

Jason, I'm 60% f fund. What constitutes high pole warning here? I guess I should ask what does that mean?

 

[JTH]

Jason, I'm 60% f fund. What constitutes high pole warning here? I guess I should ask what does that mean?

A high Pole warning is basically when prices breakout clearly above previous resistance, but then quickly retrace more than 50% of the previous gains. It's giving us a warning that demand has been outstripped by supply. It's only a warning (not a PnF price reversal), basically like saying more than 50% of an up-wave had been overtaken by the bears.

The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future.

 

[kave]

Thank you!!

 

[rktect1]

Waiting for Tuesday or Wednesday, then pulling this plug.

Pulled the plug and watching the bathwater swirl down the drain. 100% G

 

[WorkFE]

rktect1,
If I was at -7% I probably would not have pulled the plug. December is generally a good month. Heck, Monday evening you were probably at -8%.
That's not to say that I am in but I never sell when I'm down hard.
Your reward to stay in is greater than the reward for someone at +7%. And their risk is greater than yours. JMHO.

 

[JTH]

Looking at the past 3 days price action, the markets didn't give us a the flip-over to the hard-sell I was looking for or thinking would happen. With only the Tran giving us a bearish price reversal, we haven't received the confirmation needed from the other indexes. Tomorrow's price action should finalize what I need to see, but as of now, it's "all systems go" unless we can get some decisive bearish action to prove otherwise.

 

[WorkFE]

A little early but its looking like Monday was the buy-in date and Christmas Rally is a go.

FYI- I seen Santa at the Mall. That is so old school.
I wonder if he gets a report on what we Google:laugh:.

 

[burrocrat]

I seen Santa at the Mall. That is so old school.
I wonder if he gets a report on what we Google:laugh:.

actually it the other way around, google gets santa's report, that's how the artificial intelligence knows what pop up adds to show you.

 

[BichonFreeze]

Looking at the past 3 days price action, the markets didn't give us a the flip-over to the hard-sell I was looking for or thinking would happen. With only the Tran giving us a bearish price reversal, we haven't received the confirmation needed from the other indexes. Tomorrow's price action should finalize what I need to see, but as of now, it's "all systems go" unless we can get some decisive bearish action to prove otherwise.

Off of the sour EU news looks like we may be heading downwards now.

 

[JTH]

I'll be honest with you, even if I think this wave is a buy, I might not jump back in until the next wave down. With my current YTD performance, there is no sound reason to try and chase something that isn't going to happen. The year is done, I'm flat, 15 days isn't going to change much.

 

[WorkFE]

Agreed but if the opportunity presents itself I'm there. Otherwise I'll take my pennies into the new year.

 

[WorkFE]

A little early but its looking like Monday was the buy-in date and Christmas Rally is a go.

Dow -84
Nasdaq -11
S&P -10

Or maybe not.

 

[JTH]

Agreed but if the opportunity presents itself I'm there. Otherwise I'll take my pennies into the new year.

On my PnF scale, AGG has officially established a higher low and is working a new column of Xs. Considering prices are still above my last exit, based on the market's price action at this time leading up to the IFT cutoff, I see no compelling reason to jump back in.

 

[rktect1]

F

Agreed but if the opportunity presents itself I'm there. Otherwise I'll take my pennies into the new year.

Those were my pennies though.

 

[Bquat]

On my PnF scale, AGG has officially established a higher low and is working a new column of Xs. Considering prices are still above my last exit, based on the market's price action at this time leading up to the IFT cutoff, I see no compelling reason to jump back in.

What do you think about AGG's longer term chart? Does this seam right?

 

[JTH]

What do you think about AGG's longer term chart? Does this seam right?

If everything matches up then it should be right, but with AGG, it's different because of the dividend that does/doesn't get factored in. Sometimes if you draw trendlines on the Freestockcharts chart and then draw them on Stockcharts, you will get different perspectives and price levels. Also, consider using Log Scale for the longer term charts.

As for it's trend, in the short-term it's up, but there is some serious volatility going on, enough so that for myself I wouldn't try a short-term 3-day play for fear of getting caught on the wrong end of the ugly stick.

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[MrJohnRoss]

Seemed to me that AGG got a little bit ahead of itself on the right side of the cup. Just needed a little dip down to bring it back to normal. Now it's time to resume a mild uptrend.