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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!JTH's Account Talk
- Thread starter JTH
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JTH
Well-known member
Yes, markets look strong today, we also put in a higher low on the .25% box $EMW, it's sad for me, I won't be chasing today's price action.
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fedgolfer
Well-known member
VIX has some gaps at ~18 and ~24. It will fill those again prior to Nov elections, IMHO. You may have a strong chance to buy again. Upward trend in indices may last until the ~13'ish range on the VIX tho -- a small gap fill may happen there before a solid downturn (less of chance than those bigger gaps previously mentioned). GL JTH, you're about the only one I read anymore on here.
Birchtree
Well-known member
You may have lost some selfconfidence - we all experience those emotions at some point.
JTH
Well-known member
Thanks, it's good to see you drop in, and I'm glad you mentioned the VIX, I don't always track it unless I believe the fear is legitimate, on the weekly chart we can see recent fear levels breaching all the way back to the end of 2011. I don't know what it means, but I find it hard to believe we won't revisit some levels again.
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JTH
Well-known member
JTH
Well-known member
Well, 1 day does not a pullback make, for me, what was missing was upside confirmation from bonds. Sellers took profits, but that's to be expected after such a strong run-up. The truth may be told on this next rundown, best advise I have is to follow the winners who are in tune with the market's conditions. I wish I had more to offer, and it's not that I don't, it's more that I'm trying very hard to use the 1 IFT I have to the utmost of its ability. Sometimes not taking a risk is still a risk, and in my situation this has been the case.
I have been reading a book called The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure it's an extensive read and with it, I've been spending some time analyzing and adapting it to work within the TSP realm. For the major indexes, I have been evaluating .25% box PnF charts. When you convert box size into percentage, it tends to equalize charts with each other and makes them easier to compare side-by-side. What the chart below is showing you, is a series of lower highs. For the bulls, if we can pierce the red line and breakout, then I believe the markets can surge further. But as it stand now, if you count from the highest X, you can see we have 4 lower highs, with the last column of Xs yet to be determined. Here's the thing, with the yellow box at 1929, we triggered a triple bottom, followed by a double bottom at 1905 and another triple bottom at 1863. This is a great deal of long-term technical damage my experience does not give me the capacity to ignore.
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JTH
Well-known member
JTH,
As per your chart, the bearish price objective of 1933.51 was met. Can you please update the SPX chart to see where it might be going from here? Tia.
JTH
Well-known member
Hi Airlift
First off, thank you.
You always challenge me with questions that force me to confirm/deny the positions I take. I do not believe a new price objective will be triggered until the next double top breakout at 1968.2, or double bottom breakdown at 1817.1 Now I realize this is a huge range, but this is a PnF thing. There are two types of price objective methods, one is the vertical count, the other the horizontal count and I'm not 100% sure how stockcharts.com crunches their numbers, because there is some art involved alongside the science.
One of the problems I've encountered is that price objective formulas are based off of set price-sized boxes, where percentage-based boxes vary based on price (the bigger the price, the bigger the box size and each box size is different.) In my studies, a common theme I have found is that I can project a price, but I cannot predict how it will get there. If I induce Fibonacci theory into the PnF charts, it leads me to believe that on the downside, 1895 gets tested because it's a 50% retracement. On the upside, past 2018, 2093 is the next Fib projection, but I believe you can round this off to 2100.
Having said all this, speaking to just the S&P 500 is not a fair assessment of the overall conditions of the markets. Some of the other indexes are fairing much better, so those variables should be taken into consideration when determining how to best position yourself within TSP.
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JTH
Well-known member
Still here, still sucking wind, still waiting for the next open-ended opportunity. The good news is that I do nothing half-azz, when I'm wrong, I'm very wrong. At this point I've just been stubborn, but as we approach the end of the month, it will be a matter of where the wave is and if I'll decide to use the last IFT to enter stocks. The markets look great, everything is firing on all cylinders, I essentially have no valid reason not to enter, except for the fact I want a lower price than my last exit.
When a strong and well-defined trendline gets broken, I generally expect to see a stall before (1) we head back down, or (2) we overtake the line, that is precisely where I think we are at the moment.
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