JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Yuk, just evaluated my performance from September, I wish I'd spent more attention, losing 5% is nothing to sneeze at! The good news is I'm within acceptable parameters of performance vs. the S-Fund, the bad news is I allowed the C-Fund to pass me up, and the F-Fund has a significant lead on my putrid 2.15% return. Good stuff, I enjoy a challenge...

 

[JTH]

Alright, I'm calling it, with 4 of 7 Indexes dipping below -10% and the average of the 7 at -10.88% this is a correction (duh).

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[amoeba]

Not quite yet, if you look at the closing price, which is what affects our TSP. I say we need to get close at solid 10% off the closing price on the SPY, or around 1,800 even, before this is termed a correction.....maybe tomorrow. I'm not trying to guess the bottom or trend (bear/bull) at this point.

 

[JTH]

Not quite yet, if you look at the closing price, which is what affects our TSP. I say we need to get close at solid 10% off the closing price on the SPY, or around 1,800 even, before this is termed a correction.....maybe tomorrow. I'm not trying to guess the bottom or trend (bear/bull) at this point.

Your humorous argument to me seems invalid, I did not discuss SPY nor TSP, nor did I imply the damage is finished. I think the numbers speak for themselves, if anyone else wants to disagree, they are more than welcomed to chime in, but as is, I'm calling this a correction.

 

[JTH]

20-Year perspective on the NYSE 52-Week lows, shows we've pushed higher numbers going back to 2011. Check out the 2007 bear market as a comparison.

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[JTH]

Perhaps you've noticed $EMW's percentage decline has slowed down some.

Chart of the S&P 500 vs. the Wilshire 4500 shows the recent 3-day's price performance difference has equalized with the 20 SMA. However, the 20 SMA is still rising, meaning the S&P 500 is still outperforming the Wilshire 4500 on a percentage scale.

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[JTH]

One last thing to consider, that deck has a wild card...

In the September FOMC meeting, Yellen put the final nail in the QE coffin by confirming the money-printing would end in October. This is what has happened since then...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

One last thing to consider, that deck has a wild card...

In the September FOMC meeting, Yellen put the final nail in the QE coffin by confirming the money-printing would end in October. This is what has happened since then...

We all knew the punch bowl would be taken away. Let's see how long they keep it away before they bring in a fresh bowl. The economy is like an addict that needs to find it's next fix. Somewhere. Anywhere.

 

[TradingJoe]

Bullard just announced, "we may keep the 3/4 empty punch bowl out a little longer, like to December." Think this put the temporary floor in?

 

[amoeba]

Bullard just announced, "we may keep the 3/4 empty punch bowl out a little longer, like to December." Think this put the temporary floor in?

I think the program traders that are buying into this suckerdom, need to add some code that says "we don't care what non-voting doves on the Fed say." I sure don't.

1,800 here we come.

 

[JTH]

I did contemplate jumping in over the past 2 days, but the timing for me isn't right. Problem is, if an IFT into stocks turned out to be a temporary oversold bounce, I don't want to be forced to jump back to the G-Fund for the remainder of the month. For me, the limitations within this account force me to be a bit more long-term in my strategic thinking and sometimes this is a handicap we all have to deal with.

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[ILoveTDs]

I did contemplate jumping in over the past 2 days, but the timing for me isn't right. Problem is, if an IFT into stocks turned out to be a temporary oversold bounce, I don't want to be forced to jump back to the G-Fund for the remainder of the month. For me, the limitations within this account force me to be a bit more long-term in my strategic thinking and sometimes this is a handicap we all have to deal with.

My thoughts exactly. Will likely save my last trade to decide if I want to be in equities going into November.

 

[Bquat]

Isn't this a possible Inverse H&S waiting for the right shoulder:

 

[JTH]

Isn't this a possible Inverse H&S waiting for the right shoulder:

Hi Bquat

That white line drawn across the chart is where the 0% price performance line is over the past 10 days. So in essence, prices are down -.07% over the past 10 days. As for head & Shoulders patterns, I look for diminished volume on the right shoulder, and for both shoulders to be at least 50% of the head, in this case, the shoulders a both shallow in depth and short in time.

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[Bquat]

Thanks

 

[JTH]

Thanks

No problem, I've seen there are more than a few folks who took trades this week, while some of us chose to wait it out. With 1 IFT left, you're in a great place with that extra option. At the moment I'm focused on the long-term view and with the recent extensive damage done, I've chosen not to take on the additional risk until we define a higher low. Truth be told, educated risk takers make money, if this trade breaks out, you'll look like a hero, get it wrong and you'll look like me. But I think you have your levels and trends right and so as long as you watch them objectively you'll be alright. The information I've evaluated thus far is mixed, there are still issues left to be resolved, but at the same time I think there are some encouraging signs.

The biggest issue I'm dealing with is Oil vs. QE, I believe which ever of these two win the battle will ultimately determine the direction of the markets.

 

[Bquat]

No problem, I've seen there are more than a few folks who took trades this week, while some of us chose to wait it out. With 1 IFT left, you're in a great place with that extra option. At the moment I'm focused on the long-term view and with the recent extensive damage done, I've chosen not to take on the additional risk until we define a higher low. Truth be told, educated risk takers make money, if this trade breaks out, you'll look like a hero, get it wrong and you'll look like me. But I think you have your levels and trends right and so as long as you watch them objectively you'll be alright. The information I've evaluated thus far is mixed, there are still issues left to be resolved, but at the same time I think there are some encouraging signs.

The biggest issue I'm dealing with is Oil vs. QE, I believe which ever of these two win the battle will ultimately determine the direction of the markets.

Thanks again. I went in because I saw one up tick after taking the 200 Day and took the chance. By the way I hate the deadline. I also was above my confirmation level in two charts. I am trying to catch the up swing earlier than normal because of missing the first couple of percent gains by waiting to see a trend before entering. If I jumped early so be it. I have missed a lot of loss lately and don't want to miss gain. So thanks for the explanations and sometimes you read my charts better than me. I like to give others something to look at.

 

[amoeba]

Could you explain further what you see with QE and oil? As far as I'm concerned, both of those are knowns; QE will end November 1, and the world is now awash in over-developed, moderately-priced energy, both oil and gas, with no-one willing to curb production; and that's without touching the largest untapped fracking reserve (Monterrey formation in California). Not that I think continued reliance on fossil fuels is a good idea environmentally - but there are many decades of supply left. Prices can't get too much lower than $60-70 bbl; due to the cost of extraction of alot of this.

 

[JTH]

Could you explain further what you see with QE and oil? As far as I'm concerned, both of those are knowns; QE will end November 1, and the world is now awash in over-developed, moderately-priced energy, both oil and gas, with no-one willing to curb production; and that's without touching the largest untapped fracking reserve (Monterrey formation in California). Not that I think continued reliance on fossil fuels is a good idea environmentally - but there are many decades of supply left. Prices can't get too much lower than $60-70 bbl; due to the cost of extraction of alot of this.

You never just give me the easy ones do you?

There are the issues with QE, most of us know it will end and needs to end, but we should also wonder how the markets are going to price it in. "In the September FOMC meeting, Yellen put the final nail in the QE coffin by confirming the money-printing would end in October." This is what has happened since then... Let's suppose the recent oversold bounce can be attributed to the expectation that QE will be extended, Dow Surges 400 Points After Fed's Bullard Prevents Plunge With QE4 Bluff. Recently, we've seen volatility ramp up, if the markets decided to throw a "I want my QE" temper tantrum" then I wouldn't be surprised to see some wild price swings until this QE issue gets priced in.

Then we have multiple issues with surplus oil production & the falling US Dollar. We know Saudi Arabia wants to flush oil prices down, some think this is to get US producers to shut down our shale production (not good for the US economy), while others think the US is using them as a proxy to hurt Syria & Russia. The other point of view, if there is surplus oil, then this means the global economy is contracting, if this is the case, what more can we do that we haven't already? Conversely, at some point in time we may need to defend the dollar, much of the earnings our American stocks get, is based on the value of the dollar, too expensive and we'll be less competitive with our exports, too cheap and we'll lose profit on the currency conversion.

I don't purport to know how any of this will play out, I only know that it is getting priced in and I'm not certain what the outcome will be. The only thing I can do is trade what I see and be mindful of what is happening behind the scenes, while at the same time not letting the fear of those unknowns wreak havoc on my trading decisions.

 

[JTH]

Price action certainly looked better today, but it wasn't enough to push me into these markets. Such a shame that I'll have to settle with the F-Fund's table scraps but .76% in 8 days ain't nothing to complain about. Under normal circumstances I would already jumped in, but with the recent extensive damage we've seen, I'd rather take a conservative approach and wait for a higher low to be defined.

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