JTH's Account Talk

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Where are all those Jack-Wagons who love buy and hold? Why aren't they littering my thread with their propaganda?
 
I've been buying and holding short positions for some time now...does that count?! :D

Hoping I'll get an opportunity to cash those in soon...I've learned my lesson on holding those. Relic of life getting in the way for a little longer than I anticipated.
 
PnF Charts, 30-Minute Scale, .25% Box, 3-Box reversal

1) $SPX, Triple Bottom Breakdown, Price Objective 1943.01

2) $EMW, Triple Bottom Breakdown, Price Objective 1022.88 (Met)

3) $Tran, Double Bottom Breakdown following a Bull Trap/Triangle Reversal, Price Objective 7977.65 (Nasty)

4) $NDX, Triple Bottom Breakdown, Price Objective 3919.16 (The last index to hold out)

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You still riding this my friend? Quick question? If you sell at a low and buy at a lower low do you still have more stocks or did you go down in number of stocks because of a sale for a loss before the buy.
 
Bquat said:
You still riding this my friend? Quick question? If you sell at a low and buy at a lower low do you still have more stocks or did you go down in number of stocks because of a sale for a loss before the buy.
Click to expand...

I was preoccupied with other things, by the time the downtrend was identified, it was too late, so I decided to ride it out. It is what it is, this has not been what I'd consider a successful year for myself, but others have proved it can be done. Yes you would accummulate more shares at lower prices.
 
Bquat said:
You still riding this my friend? Quick question? If you sell at a low and buy at a lower low do you still have more stocks or did you go down in number of stocks because of a sale for a loss before the buy.
Click to expand...

# of shares increases, but $ of each share decreases.
 
Yuk, I can barely stand to check the markets anymore. Still trying to figure out if I'm going to hold or fold. I'll admit, I haven't had much time to do analysis and after the last failed buy signal (from what I consider a reliable system) my confidence has faltered. The futures looked good last night but it still didn't materialize into gains, this has been the market's character since this last downturn. One thing for certain, I need to gain an edge and may need to side-step this price action to do so. Only problem is, if I'm wrong, then I may lose the 2% edge against the S-Fund and that wouldn't be fun.

From my current perspective, we need to re-capture and overtake 1985 to put in a reversal for these markets.

View attachment 30505
 
Bquat said:
Me too. Below the 200 day mean we're in a bear market?
Click to expand...

Moving averages don't typiaclly identify a bear market, a 20% decline on the major indexes is the standard most folks use. The 200 Daily Moving Average is currently @ 1903.61
 
The S&P (excuse my math) is only down less than 4% from it's over-inflated September peak. I don't know the ages of most of the members here, but I started investing in 1986 and learned quick on Black Monday, October 19th, 1987 what a "real" correction felt like. I was a young Soldier and saw all my mutual fund contributions vaporize in one day. These up and down days of 1-2% are annoying and can hurt egos of market timers.

That said, outside my TSP, I am 90% cash and if members here have read my posts they know why. I am conservative by nature, so giving some profits back the past two days is fine because I am in the "L2030 Fund" and we all know it's "safe". This site is isn't updated yet, but I figure the L2030 was down .91% and I gained .5% previous two days. :suspicious:

JTH said:
Moving averages don't typiaclly identify a bear market, a 20% decline on the major indexes is the standard most folks use. The 200 Daily Moving Average is currently @ 1903.61
Click to expand...
 
JTH said:
So much more fun to watch the markets bomb when you're not invested...

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This is a high volume weak friday, like January 31; tuesday should be a real bell-ringer; I'm thinking no less than -1.5% by COB 10/14/14, and probably alot more. The superstitious here may think I'm putting the boogie on their sideline positions; but I'm not a believer in boogeymen....at least not this one. The train has left the station and it ain't comin back next week.
 
JTH said:
Should have done this weeks ago

IFT EoB today 100F
Click to expand...

I had an IFT in the cue for 100% F at COB today and canceled it with 2 minutes to spare. Not feeling so groovy about that now. Monday may just flat out be the kind of day where they have to stop trading. Got to paint a grim picture so that anything short of that is a positive lol

-Geaux
 
Only time will tell, but I also am standing pat with 100% equities. Fear Index is like 3, extreme fear. If I wasn't already 100% equities, I would have been going in today. Buy that dip! :blink:
 
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