JTH's Account Talk

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Re: letting it ride?

JTH said:
RISK OFF

Anyone remember these charts?

If you are already invested or are going to jump in this Month, this does not apply to you.

Let's speculate...For those of you sidelined, this will be a tough place to take an entry, that 1010 shelf of resistance is strong. Even if we breakout, I can see topping out in the 1015-1020 area and from there putting in a reversal to the downside. Some of us will be starting out the month un-invested, I would ask you to consider for yourself if you are willing to consume a valuable IFT to risk a 1% gain verses a -5% loss. Kindly put, based on TSP's limitations, this is not the place where a rational trader should take an entry. This is my opinion, if I'm wrong I can live with myself (money missed is better than money lost) but if I'm right then I won't lose any sleep if you lose any money.

View attachment 28800
Click to expand...

W4500 pushed higher than my initial 1015-1020 projection to 1040 (which is an area with both a bull flag projection and a major double top.) If you assumed the risk, catching the gains with an exit, congrats, that was a great play. The 1010 red circled/bull flag area still exist as a potential area of support, from the current levels, that's a -1.15% decline.

View attachment 29050
 
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JTH said:
Thanks MrBowl, I agree, I've always kept an eye out for Big John, he uses a great blend of "buy the fear" with "staying consistent." His consistency over the years is one of things which makes him special, he doesn't necessarily fold when things don't immediately go his way, he waits it out, managing time better than the majority of us.
Click to expand...

JtH,

How lyou planing to hold TZA?
 
JTH said:
Picked up some TZA this morning @ 15.14
Click to expand...

airlift said:

JTH,

How long are you planing to hold TZA? Do you have an approximate price level or percent in mind?
Click to expand...

1) Cost basis is at 15.50, just below the the 15.55 gap fill from 5 June (5 days ago)

2) 1st Stop placed @ 14.50 for a -6.43% loss (just below 5 June's low)

3) Minimum Price Target @ 15.89 for a 2.46% gain (previous level of support and resistance)

4) Market's willing, my expected price target is 16.55-16.85 for a 6.78% to 8.78% gain

5) Max expected gain (trend-time based) 17.35 for a 11.94% gain

View attachment 29057
 
suhweet! i made the list at #73! uh huh, that's what i'm talkin bout.

not too shabby for just winging it.
 
Well I was getting all bent out of shape because my name wasn't on this list. Then I realized that I wasn't on the tracker until 2011:laugh:
Now if I only knew what place that was on the 3 year compounded returns spreadsheet ;)
 
JTH said:
1) Cost basis is at 15.50, just below the the 15.55 gap fill from 5 June (5 days ago)

2) 1st Stop placed @ 14.50 for a -6.43% loss (just below 5 June's low)

3) Minimum Price Target @ 15.89 for a 2.46% gain (previous level of support and resistance)

4) Market's willing, my expected price target is 16.55-16.85 for a 6.78% to 8.78% gain

5) Max expected gain (trend-time based) 17.35 for a 11.94% gain

View attachment 29057
Click to expand...

JTH,

I have to applaud your analysis and predictive abilities to see most turns in the market. It appears that your analysis and conclusions will come to fruition. Today, cash futures are quite negative, and all morning at CNBC different analysts are looking at many different factors, including the deteriorating situation in the middle east. They agree that a downturn is definitely in progress. Jeff Saut, Chief Investment Strategist from Raymond James, who has been a respected visitor there for many years, is also looking at this downturn, and he was able to predict an upturn on April 15. Of note, today he opined that the SPX should close this year close to 2100. Not perfect, but excellent also! Again, thanks for your opinion on TZA. Good day.
 
Jason,

I think your spreadsheet didn't use the last year in the compounding. It looks like just the first 3 years were included in the computation.
Run it through manually and see what you come up with....... That last year (2013) makes a huge difference in the total.





JTH said:
More of the same, here are the top 145 compounded returns over the past 4-years, I did not post anything under the G-Fund's returns.

View attachment 29058
View attachment 29060
View attachment 29059
View attachment 29061
View attachment 29062
Click to expand...
 
You might be right, it wouldn't be the first time I've messed up a stat, I'll check it when I get home, and re-post the results.

Thanks...Jason
 
061614a.gif
Click to expand...

Thanks for adding the sentiment_system data to the list. I'm not sure if it's because the system went thru some name changes (sentiment_survey, sentiment_system, etc.) but it looks like the 2013 return is wrong. These are the numbers I have:

[TABLE="width: 120"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2013 | +28.56%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2012 | +20.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011 | -10.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2010 | +35.16%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2009 | +6.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Oh, never mind. It just looks like they are inversed - 2013 is really 2009's return, 2012 is 2010, etc.
 
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Gumby said:
Jason,

I think your spreadsheet didn't use the last year in the compounding. It looks like just the first 3 years were included in the computation.
Run it through manually and see what you come up with....... That last year (2013) makes a huge difference in the total.
Click to expand...

tsptalk said:
Oh, never mind. It just looks like they are inversed - 2013 is really 2009's return, 2012 is 2010, etc.
Click to expand...

You are both correct, someone should fire my Quality Control guy...

Here are the updated results, at my current rate of success...

View attachment 29125
View attachment 29126
View attachment 29127
View attachment 29128

Sorry about the quality of the pictures, they exceeded the size limits.
 
One of these years when I grow up I'll have 5 years. So I better do better as I grow the next two years.:D
 
Jason, TZA looking very weak again this morning, I'm thinking we may be stopped out soon.
If FED offers no surprizes tomorrow, as expected, Markets may rally and push TZA to 1450 area, minimum..
 
Dutchy said:
Jason, TZA looking very weak again this morning, I'm thinking we may be stopped out soon.
If FED offers no surprizes tomorrow, as expected, Markets may rally and push TZA to 1450 area, minimum..
Click to expand...

This would be terrible for my TZA position and for the bottom line. JTH, can you please give your opinion? Tia
 
airlift....This would be terrible for my TZA position and for the bottom line. JTH, can you please give your opinion? Tia
Click to expand...

I was stopped out on TZA @14.65, I thought Jason's stop he discussed at 14.50 was to low..

I went LONG the SPX, after reading news this morning, the likelihood of FED shaking up the Markets is low..

And Banks will want to rally into month/quarter end..
 
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