JTH's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

A catalyst isn't necessary - the market is a future discounting mechanism. Perhaps the market is looking forward to June 5th when the ECB is going to pump in some QE.

 

[JTH]

A catalyst isn't necessary - the market is a future discounting mechanism. Perhaps the market is looking forward to June 5th when the ECB is going to pump in some QE.

It's a beautiful day to see some upside price action which looks to be rather stable. If I were to jump in now, I'd be entering at roughly the same point I exited, I fail to see the point in that, it's a bit too early in the moth for me to jump in here. I do expect some follow-through over the next few days.

View attachment 28600

 

[Frixxxx]

I see your red light is missing (avatar)....new look or is it a signal for your closer friends here at TSPTalk?

 

[JTH]

I see your red light is missing (avatar)....new look or is it a signal for your closer friends here at TSPTalk?

No sir, the colors have no meaning, if I could find yellow than I would perhaps avatar a color-coded decoder ring

 

[JTH]

I am surprised by today's action. Not sure what the cayalyst is?

We are in sync with seasonality

 

[jkenjohnson]

Ah, I did not think of that.

 

[airlift]

We are in sync with seasonality

The seasonality chart posted by Tom some weeks ago supports your statement. But if this is the repeat pattern going on, we have a bounce in progress followed by another drop soon, and a bounce near the close of May:

COPY:

Here's the seasonality issue when taking the mid-term election year into consideration. This is 59-years worth of data ending in 2009. Clearly there is an historical issue with stocks between mid-April and early October. And since we're sitting in mid-April, is it possible that the new high made in early April is going to be the high until the Fall? That's what history might be telling us.

 

[JTH]

The seasonality chart posted by Tom some weeks ago supports your statement. But if this is the repeat pattern going on, we have a bounce in progress followed by another drop soon, and a bounce near the close of May:

COPY:

Here's the seasonality issue when taking the mid-term election year into consideration. This is 59-years worth of data ending in 2009. Clearly there is an historical issue with stocks between mid-April and early October. And since we're sitting in mid-April, is it possible that the new high made in early April is going to be the high until the Fall? That's what history might be telling us.

View attachment 28601

 

[airlift]

View attachment 28601

View attachment 28601

Oh Boy, the probable scenario seems to be well-tracked. As your chart shows, a great possibility is that Options Expiration might be a top, and then a drop!

 

[JTH]

View attachment 28610

 

[JTH]

More of the same, if the markets perform the same actions then we should expect to see the same results. Watch the money flowing into bonds...

View attachment 28642

 

[BichonFreeze]

What's interesting is given today's price action, we're nearing the top of the 52 week range at $110.58.

 

[JTH]

What's interesting is given today's price action, we're nearing the top of the 52 week range at $110.58.

True, but I'm not overly concerned with the recent highs, the all-time highs were put in July 2012 @ 112.71 so we still have plenty of room to the upside.

 

[BichonFreeze]

True, but I'm not overly concerned with the recent highs, the all-time highs were put in July 2012 @ 112.71 so we still have plenty of room to the upside.

Good to know that.

 

[JTH]

1) The 7-Month AB Trendline has been violated 7 times, yet not closed under this line each of those 7 times

2) On 14-May we met the intersection of the AB & CD trendline, this is one of my pivots

3) The Bollinger Band width is at a 37-bar low, prices are compressing, we are at the same levels as points C & D

View attachment 28662

 

[rktect1]

I really wish i knew what that means

 

[airlift]

1) The 7-Month AB Trendline has been violated 7 times, yet not closed under this line each of those 7 times

2) On 14-May we met the intersection of the AB & CD trendline, this is one of my pivots

3) The Bollinger Band width is at a 37-bar low, prices are compressing, we are at the same levels as points C & D

View attachment 28662

JTH,

This is an excellent technical analysis (TA) workmanship that you put out this morning. Thanks. Correct me if my interpretation is wrong. That is, if TA presages the trend correctly, this chart depicts the very high probability that the converging CD and AB trendlines will most likely provide very strong support that, not only will hold the downside of W4500, but that it will follow through with a bounce and rally to the upside today.

Cash Futures are nasty negative now at 8:21 AM. However, once the Markets open at 9:30, we could see the downside of W4500 reach the converging trendlines, and then start to bounce.

 

[rktect1]

Well, right now the markets have tanked with no bounce. But it is real early. I'm not betting on a bounce.

Good luck.

Red light?

 

[jkenjohnson]

JT,

You gonna buy this dip?

 

[WorkFE]

JT,

You gonna buy this dip?

Inquiring minds wanna know