JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
Thank you for the kind words, it helps keep me motivated on those days when I'm just too tired to do my homework. There are so many methods I use but it isn't any one method which singularly works, it is the accumulation of those methods working with a synergistic effect and a steady hand guiding the till. Here are some of the methods I deploy and traits I find successful among traders, it is much the same approach I took when I was an avid chess player.

1) Researching, reading, watching, creating, back-testing and concluding the results. Sometimes I'll spend 20-40 hours a week doing just this.
1a) Read anything and everything you can get your hands on, also look for and filter out bias when you find it.
1b) Watch about 3-4 hours of videos a week, mostly on YouTube, if you find something you like, subscribe to it.
1c) Create systems based on any idea you come across, the more reading and watching you do the more ideas you create.
1d) Back-testing is very important and often time consuming, understand how it is very easy to skew the results by changing the variables.
1e) Make a conclusion of the system, either trash it, or add it as 1 tool (IMHO there is no 1 system which works for all situations.)

2) Make a plan, if it's too ridged it will snap or too flexible and you will get bent over
2a) The Long-game, map out your IFTs a full year in advance, with broad seasonal zones.
2b) The Mid-game gets mapped out about 30 days in advance, this falls in line with the 2 IFT limit. I've found many folks don't think about the mid game, this is the most important timeframe for TSPers. Hence, it is typically better to start off the month already invested, then jumping to G/F while still having 1 IFT to jump into the markets with. This is where many folks get left behind, there is nothing worse then watching the markets take off without you and being unable to deploy an IFT.
2c) The Short-game gets mapped out 3-7 days in advance, I scout potential entries and exits based on what the markets are doing now and how it fits into the Mid & Long term plans. I don't know what I'm going to do the next day, but I do know how I'm going to react to what happens.

3) Perspective, watch price and volume over multiple indexes over multiple timeframes, get a feel for the action
3a) Nothing substitutes time spent watching the price action, get into the pocket and stay there. If you take a break, you'll lose the feel.
3b) Every night I'll review the major indexes on the 15-minute, hourly, and daily timeframes. Sometimes (if I have a question) I'll dig into the 5-minute charts to see the interaction with trendlines. Weekly, I review the Weekly & Monthly Charts (stepping back to view the forest.)
3c) The Futures play an important role on determining the personality of the markets. I watch the futures at least every hour until I go to bed, then any time I wake up (usually 2am & 4am.) Think of the markets as a bi-polar patient, sometimes they are happy, or vice versa. It's important to understand and correlate the futures vs. that day's price action, sometimes those relationships change. Just like with the markets, if you have a good night's sleep, then you may have a great day at work. But if you tossed and turned all night long, then the next day you might have some volatility.
3d) The most important thing for us to understand is that we cannot impose our will on these markets, we can only choose to accept the outcome and find the proper reaction. "Being wrong and moving on" is an important part of not getting stuck in a bad position for too long.
3e) Being in the pocket. Every night, you should ask yourself at least 3 questions about how you think the price action will go. Ask yourself about the upside, downside, and middle, look at every possibility without bias. Then wait for the markets to reveal the answers with the price action. If you had guessed the price action correctly, then you are in the pocket and reacting correctly. If you are out of the pocket, don't try to force it, just try to figure out either what you missed or what you didn't accept (meaning your bias.)

4) Confidence gained from experience and planning. As an example, if you look at Intrepid Timer, he is usually confident to the point where he comes off as being arrogant. Yet he also understands the markets are not going to bend to his will, he has the flexibility to adapt, yet stay within the confines of his plan. You can't buy that sort of confidence but you can rent it through his Premium Service :)

I hope this answers your questions




As to the Premium service, I have not been offered one and would likely decline any offers at this juncture in my life. Reason #1, I have not yet met my own standards. Reason #2, I am a member of the USAF and a SNCO, my primary duties are to take care of those under me and I take that responsibility seriously. When work calls, I turn off the TSP switch, that switch gets turned off various times of the day and is very unpredictable. It would not be fair to have so many folks dependent on someone who could not give them their undivided attention.
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I do all this by proxy through the JTH free service.:D At least I wish I did.:o
 
JTH said:
Reason #2, I am a member of the USAF and a SNCO, my primary duties are to take care of those under me and I take that responsibility seriously.
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JTH,

I was so proud of you when you made the above statement. I'm so happy to see the core values of the USAF SNCO alive and well. I spent 32 years in the Air National Guard both as a full time military technician and as a traditional guardsman. I retired in 2011 with the rank of SMSgt and also took my responsibilites as a SNCO very seriously. I demanded alot from my troops and expected thier best, but I always took care of them.There was no greater compliment for me than having my troops give testimony at my retirement ceremony, of how much they had accomplished because of my influence. Keep up the good work, it is well worth the effort and thank you for your service.
 
ravensfan said:
JTH,

I was so proud of you when you made the above statement. I'm so happy to see the core values of the USAF SNCO alive and well. I spent 32 years in the Air National Guard both as a full time military technician and as a traditional guardsman. I retired in 2011 with the rank of SMSgt and also took my responsibilites as a SNCO very seriously. I demanded alot from my troops and expected thier best, but I always took care of them.There was no greater compliment for me than having my troops give testimony at my retirement ceremony, of how much they had accomplished because of my influence. Keep up the good work, it is well worth the effort and thank you for your service.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I couldn't agree more, taking care of the mission as a technician is fun but taking care of people is more rewarding. I'm currently knocking out the CCAF & Course 14, afterwards I plan on applying to be a First Sergeant. :)
 
JTH said:
As illustrated with this 5-Minute chart, we saw some interesting price action today across the 6-Month trendline. With lots of volatility, there was a 2.15% price swing today. Volume was questionable, not the kind of exhaustive selling we like to see as confirmation of a bottom. For myself, I'll do what I usually do, look for a 50% retracement bounce which is about a 2.4% gain off my entry price today. Regardless of what I think, we had a legitimate chance to take these markets down and for whatever reason, buyers stepped in with somewhat convincing fashion.
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JTH said:
The Wilshire 4500 put in a solid performance, volume was on par with the previous two days, with today showing reduced volatility. Within the orange zone, I'm halfway to my minimum 1,000 price target, with expectations to get there on Monday. In the short-term, I can see making an exit on Tuesday, otherwise the preference is to exit early next month.
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My expectations here are simple

Closing price above the lower red line @ 987 keeps me interested, under those conditions I’ll be looking for a breach of both the 20 & 50 SMAs this week. As previously mentioned, I’m looking for a minimum price target of 1,000 which is .90% from Thursday’s closing price. After a successful test of the 20-SMA in the 1,000 area, I’ll be looking to test the 50-SMA in the 1010 area, followed by a Fibonacci retracement bounce in the 1020 area, from which point I’ll definitely be looking for an exit, perhaps in early May.

For downside potential, a lower low on Monday, below Thursday’s close stands a fair chance of pushing me out on Tuesday’s traditional pop. I don’t have hard & steadfast rules for an exit, it is dependent on my impressions of the price action across the various indexes. I can say a close below 15-Apr’s 975 steers me towards thinking we will test the 5-Feb bottom at 939.

For guidance, watch the NASDAQ 100 & Transports, usually they lead the markets by a day when price action is mixed and uncertain. In addition, as of late, AGG has been a fairly reliable indicator as to the overall direction of stocks. Remember, the next month is around the corner, you may want to review my signature block, which has been updated with May’s stats.

View attachment 28260
Volume below from TNA
View attachment 28261
 
Last edited:
JTH said:
Thanks, I couldn't agree more, taking care of the mission as a technician is fun but taking care of people is more rewarding. I'm currently knocking out the CCAF & Course 14, afterwards I plan on applying to be a First Sergeant. :)
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This old SeaBee tips his hat!

-Geaux
 
JTH said:
Thanks, I couldn't agree more, taking care of the mission as a technician is fun but taking care of people is more rewarding. I'm currently knocking out the CCAF & Course 14, afterwards I plan on applying to be a First Sergeant. :)
Click to expand...
Go for it JTH, I got my CCAF in 1993. Being the Shirt is a hard position, because it means it is ALL ABOUT THE PEOPLE. I recently got told, I'd probably wouldn't be a group superintendent because of no Shirt time. Oh, well...waiting for my Chief to retire to see if I get the position. If not, I'll probably retire after 26 years of fun!

Keep the financials coming, great insight.
 
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