JTH's Account Talk

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There isn't enough data prior to the IFT cutoff to convince me to jump in, I'll sit this out and see how the rest of the day unfolds.
 
JTH,

Maybe it's me but the S fund seems to be under performing on days we are in the green, and over performing on days in the red. Could this be an omen?
 
I took a chance at market low and bought a couple index ETF's in my IRA. Not a huge amount, but farther from my 100% cash position I had in all my investment accounts on Friday morning. Get ready for Birchtree.

JTH said:
Sorry my friend, the markets today are unimpressively predictable, you can have this price action, I'll wait for something better...


View attachment 28149
Click to expand...
 
BichonFreeze said:
JTH,

Maybe it's me but the S fund seems to be under performing on days we are in the green, and over performing on days in the red. Could this be an omen?
Click to expand...

Very observant of you. I would speculate it's a flight to quality, institutions are rotating out of small caps into large caps.
 
OBXTrader said:
I took a chance at market low and bought a couple index ETF's in my IRA. Not a huge amount, but farther from my 100% cash position I had in all my investment accounts on Friday morning. Get ready for Birchtree.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I may entertain an entry on TNA if we get the right setup :)
 
JTH said:
Thanks, I may entertain an entry on TNA if we get the right setup :)
Click to expand...

JTH,

TNA and TZA are 3x leveraged bull/bear ETFs that generally have 3x the gains/losses of IWM. Based on your experience, are these leveraged ETFs highly manipulated by traders and/or programs to the point where they would be unreliable instruments to trade consistently, or do you think that they perform close to the behavior of IWM? Reason I ask is because some people believe the aforesaid. It would seem to me, however, that if one can correctly identify the direction of the upward or downward move, the added risk would be justified. Thanks in advance.
 
airlift said:
JTH,

TNA and TZA are 3x leveraged bull/bear ETFs that generally have 3x the gains/losses of IWM. Based on your experience, are these leveraged ETFs highly manipulated by traders and/or programs to the point where they would be unreliable instruments to trade consistently, or do you think that they perform close to the behavior of IWM? Reason I ask is because some people believe the aforesaid. It would seem to me, however, that if one can correctly identify the direction of the upward or downward move, the added risk would be justified. Thanks in advance.
Click to expand...

I've made these arguments before, over the course of time, some leveraged ETFs lose tracking. I had posted some examples a few years back in Tom's ETFTalk forum. The shorter the play the better the tracking, the longer the play the bigger the loss. I agree IWM is the better choice, I just happen to enjoy playing the leveraged ETFs for short-term plays.

Here's a 3-day example where $RUT's -3.85% X 3 = -11.55% ($RUT loses .02% more than TNA) Break even
View attachment 28155


Here's a 1-Month example where $RUT's -5.59% X 3 = -16.77% ($RUT loses .04% less than TNA) Break even
View attachment 28156


Here's a 6-Month example where $RUT's 2.3% X 3 = 6.9% ($RUT gains 2.64% more than TNA) WTF happened???
View attachment 28157
 
airlift said:
JTH,

TNA and TZA are 3x leveraged bull/bear ETFs that generally have 3x the gains/losses of IWM. Based on your experience, are these leveraged ETFs highly manipulated by traders and/or programs to the point where they would be unreliable instruments to trade consistently, or do you think that they perform close to the behavior of IWM? Reason I ask is because some people believe the aforesaid. It would seem to me, however, that if one can correctly identify the direction of the upward or downward move, the added risk would be justified. Thanks in advance.
Click to expand...

They only track it 3x DAY TO DAY. The longer you hold it, the less it tracks IWM/RUT especially if the market is choppy (up day, down day, up day, down day, etc)...
 
I've been having technical difficulties at work, if I don't like the price action tomorrow, I'll cancel the IFT, otherwise I'm in.

IFT 100S EoB 4/15/2014
 
JTH said:
I've been having technical difficulties at work, if I don't like the price action tomorrow, I'll cancel the IFT, otherwise I'm in.

IFT 100S EoB 4/15/2014
Click to expand...

ravensfan said:
Now I'm feeling good.:) JTH is back.:D
Click to expand...

I'll tell you a secret, I don't have an F'in clue as to what I'm doin, I just grab an empty beer and play "spin the bottle" with my IFTs :cheesy:
 
JTH said:
I'll tell you a secret, I don't have an F'in clue as to what I'm doin, I just grab an empty beer and play "spin the bottle" with my IFTs :cheesy:
Click to expand...

Geez! I thought I was the only one who felt that way. 2014 has certainly been a tough nut to crack.:nuts:
 
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