JTH's Account Talk

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Here are some market meters illustrating the relative health of the individual stocks trading within the indexes. There are 500 stocks in the S&P 500 & 1812 in the Russell 2000. Based on this data we can see there has been a slight but shallow pullback, with the bulls clearly in control of prices.

View attachment 27607

View attachment 27608
 
After the initial spike in price this morning, volume seems to have subsided, it looks like a typical spike & vade move, those have been very deceptive during this bull market. Bear in mind the 50 SMA hovers alongside the previous up wave's Fibonacci level at 1830 so if we were to pullback further, we might expect buyers to step in here.

View attachment 27627
 
JTH said:
After the initial spike in price this morning, volume seems to have subsided, it looks like a typical spike & vade move, those have been very deceptive during this bull market. Bear in mind the 50 SMA hovers alongside the previous up wave's Fibonacci level at 1830 so if we were to pullback further, we might expect buyers to step in here.
Click to expand...

As I suspected, volume was at a 49 day low, it wasn't a clear low, but low nevertheless. For the hourly chart we can see that on the latest down-wave's red & green box, we met resistence at the 50% level, failing to close above it.

View attachment 27635
 
Khotso said:
Man, you are amazing! I almost feel guilty having access to and getting the benefit of your analyses, insights and stats for free JTH! I've learned so damn much from your posts -- an incredible education frankly.
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Thank you for the kind comments, somebody has to keep those premium services on their toes :toung:
 
I read this late last night, I thought it was a very interesting article concerning the Historical instances of the Market's reactions to news events.

Why stocks rallied in face of new cold war

"The result was a list of 49 distinct events, such as Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, Kennedy’s assassination, and so forth. The professors then measured the average absolute return of the S&P 500 index on these days."
 
You know, when I hear that Microsoft's stock is at a 14-year high, I wonder 2 things.

1) WTF has this stock been doing for the past 14 years, if I were a long-term investor, I'd be pissed!

2) Is the Market top in...
 
JTH said:
You know, when I hear that Microsoft's stock is at a 14-year high, I wonder 2 things.

1) WTF has this stock been doing for the past 14 years, if I were a long-term investor, I'd be pissed!

2) Is the Market top in...
Click to expand...

You know I was scratching my head on this one too. But I suppose it makes sense if you consider that the first couple of Xbox systems set back the company ( i.e. Red Ring of Death with X360 ), the last few Operating Systems did not release with the success of Win95, or XP (I'm looking at you Win8), and finally projects like Zune out right failed.
 
JTH said:
Macro view across the 15-minute chart, an execution of the second Tilt Flag should take us to the 1883.57 top
Click to expand...

Pattern busted
__________________________________

Today's observations

1) Today's Daily price action saw a -1.27% price swing
2) The Hourly chart's last candlestick saw a -.93% or 17.41 point swing, of the last 500 bars this one ranks in 6th place
3) The Hourly chart's last candlestick tail was unusually long, of the last 500 bars this one ranks in 1st place
4) The Hourly chart's last candlestick bounced off the most recent trendline
4) On SPY's Hourly Volume, of the last 500 bars this one ranks in 4th place

Warning: On the hourly timeframe we have a lower low & lower high but I would consider heavy volume on a deep tail, on a major index to be a positive sign of a bottom, if we break back through the recent flat 1874 top, I would think we could climb fast. Conversely, if we fall below the previous 1839.57 swing low, then I expect us to fall equally fast...

View attachment 27671
 
jkenjohnson said:
Are you looking at a certain entry point?
Click to expand...

Truth is I'm not, these prices are just not all that appealing to me. There may come a day of reckoning and if I'm fortunate, when this day comes I'll be in a position to capitalize on it. I'm already 78% invested in the IRA, so it's not like I'm not in this market, just not in TSP. I would entertain taking a position under SPX 1810/W4500 980, my preference would be to jump in on a flash crash. I do realize with a 1.41% YTD & AT #560 that I'm underperforming, for some reason I just don't care enough about it to force a trade.


I see you are doing rather well this year with a ,with a 6.27% YTD & AT #58 perhaps I should be following you, where are you looking for an entry?
 
Spread the fear


Why it could get even worse for the markets

"[In] 2011, [there] also [was] an erosion in the emerging markets just like we're seeing today with Russia breaking down, Mexico, Brazil, China," says Ross. "It's not pretty out there. Copper is breaking down to a fresh, multiyear low. We're seeing the same type of macro erosion in the back drop that we had that precipitated a 20% pullback in the S&P back in 2011…. That's the cause for concern."
 
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