JTH's Account Talk

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Bquat said:
Well buddy I'm kinda short term neutral but looking for pullback for entry. I do think midterm damage is repaired. I have a late breakfast with former work buddies tomorrow so I was looking for your heads up short to midterm. I really don't expect to have to make a decision tomorrow but as always enjoy your outlooks for the market.:D
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It's difficult for me to ascertain how much higher this market will go, it clearly has its own agenda. Best estimate would be a pullback to 1840 where we have price/volume support, or 1907.30 which is based off the previous red-boxed 112.92 point decline multiplied by 1.5 then added to the 1737.92 low, thus taking us to 1907. New waves generally don't exceed 1.5 times the previous wave, that's where the 1.5 comes from.

View attachment 27484
 
In January 2013 prices on E_S_E_A formed an Alligator pattern. From the ear's peak of 1.16 prices consolidated, trending slightly down without providing confirmation of a lower low. Both price & volume surged, breaching the bollinger bands at the mouth where 1.07ish was the signal to enter the trade.

View attachment 27485

Fast forward a few days later and prices surged back up to the ear, eventually exhausting @ 1.22 If the trade had been taken @ 1.07 and exited at 1.16 it would have resulted in an 8.4% 1-4 day gain (coulda woulda shoulda)
View attachment 27486

Now it's Jan 2014 and the same formation has taken place. From the ear's peak of 1.64 prices consolidated, trending slightly down without providing confirmation of a lower low. The mouth is at 1.40ish and we have a surge in volume but I'm waiting for a close above the bollinger bands before entering the trade. If you believe any of this, then there is potential for a 15% gain if the trade is executed correctly. This is an inexpensive stock so although the risk is high, the price to play is low.

View attachment 27487

Here are the 2 patterns on the long term chart, I may enter the trade if we can get back up to 1.40

View attachment 27488
 
JTH said:
It's difficult for me to ascertain how much higher this market will go, it clearly has its own agenda. Best estimate would be a pullback to 1840 where we have price/volume support, or 1907.30 which is based off the previous red-boxed 112.92 point decline multiplied by 1.5 then added to the 1737.92 low, thus taking us to 1907. New waves generally don't exceed 1.5 times the previous wave, that's where the 1.5 comes from.

View attachment 27484
Click to expand...

I really appreciate the time you take to share your analysis.
 
Thank you everyone for the kind words :)

As a side notes, the last 4 times the number of S&P 500 stocks above their 200 SMA hit its own the 200 SMA, we received minor pullbacks.

View attachment 27493


Over the last 10 months the number of S&P 500 stocks above their 200 has been declining with each peak.

View attachment 27494
 
Not quite time to put the feather in the cap yet, but this afternoon should be interesting. :) Wish I was as good at investing as I am at analyzing other people's hard work.

OBXTrader said:
Wouldn't today be a feather in your cap with your 1888 (appox) attained, and now back down to your target so BT can get more golden prices?
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Seeing how much individuals on this board supplement their TSP's with holdings in stocks makes me want to start, but really I have no idea where to begin.
 
BichonFreeze said:
Seeing how much individuals on this board supplement their TSP's with holdings in stocks makes me want to start, but really I have no idea where to begin.
Click to expand...

I would start with just saving up a crap-load of money, then read & self-educate yourself while your saving the money.
 
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