JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
Baring any drastic changes in market conditions, I'll be looking to stay invested going into November. This week has a seasonally positive bias, but if I were a short-term trader I'd be looking for an exit on Thursday. Next week is seasonally bearish, but the last week of October transitioning into November + the following week tends to be strong. The best guide I have to offer is to watch the weekly charts, last week's bottoming tail is the anchor, if this week closes below last week's 1687.15 open then I'd advice extreme caution.

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JTH, I would like an update on this weekly, if possible. I pretty much decided to stay in today but I'm looking for a midterm outlook.
 
law87 said:
You calling for a pull back to 1687?
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Nope, 1687 was the previous weeks open (sort of a line in the sand for this week) I'm not calling for a pullback just yet, we still have some room to the upside before we get overbought. It was a good week for TSP but I'm stuck on the sidelines in the ROTH, I just wasn't able to get a re-entry in this week.
 
Based on Friday & Monday's price action I would estimate a top is highly probable but I'm not going to call a top just yet because we did make a daily higher high while not making a lower low. Of the previous 5 gap-ups, 3 resulted in further upside price action (see chart below with arrows.) If invested, I would not sell at these levels without confirmation but if I were on the sidelines I would not buy, it's a tough spot to be in...

Note: Due to the fact I'm out of IFT's I am willing to accept more pain. If I did have the ability to jump back in, I would have made the exit on Friday (as previously mentioned in this thread.)

View attachment 25683
 
I'm in the same boat...no IFTs...wanted to get out on Friday but did not. The RSI is at 65 for S and C so one might think there is a little upside room. The question is how much consolidation do we expect and on what timeline? Selling now could mean being forced to buy in at higher prices on 1 November.
 
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gronk007 said:
JTH...just curious...are you thinking about selling here if this day were to hold up?
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I agree with you about the RSI (and many other indicators) I'm finding many of them are just short of getting maxed out, but they havn't maxed out. I would love to sell today, but I already made my decision last night, I usually make my IFT decisions based on End of Day prices.
 
I'm sitting at another YTD high with 23.17% but it doesn't mean a whole lot when the S-Fund is outpacing. Only 2 people are outperforming the S-Fund, that should say something about what type of year it's been. Sometimes it's best just to get out of your own way...

Stat: This current upwave has lasted 10 days. The 10-day price performance sits at 5.93% this is in the top 4% over the last 20 years or 5,053 days.
 
JTH said:
I'm sitting at another YTD high with 23.17% but it doesn't mean a whole lot when the S-Fund is outpacing. Only 2 people are outperforming the S-Fund, that should say something about what type of year it's been. Sometimes it's best just to get out of your own way...

Stat: This current upwave has lasted 10 days. The 10-day price performance sits at 5.93% this is in the top 4% over the last 20 years or 5,053 days.
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Damn JTH, 23% sure beats the general populace.
 
JimmyJoe said:
Damn JTH, 23% sure beats the general populace.
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Thank you, I certainly wish I felt that way, this has been a banner year, very difficult to time. I've had to adopt a DCA strategy over the previous quarter just to stay within striking range. Only 6 years of trading and every year has brought a different experience, I'm already looking forward to the next bear market :)
 
We do have 40 and 60 year Kress cycles looming hard down for 2014 - but I suspect the Fed will push that decline out into 2015 or even 2016. Anyway, that dim light you see approaching is you know who.
 
Birchtree said:
We do have 40 and 60 year Kress cycles looming hard down for 2014 - but I suspect the Fed will push that decline out into 2015 or even 2016. Anyway, that dim light you see approaching is you know who.
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No, I don't know; who is that?
 
JTH said:
AMD reports after the close today, based on the price action I've decided to wait on the sidelines. I do expect it to hit $4.50 but I'd like to see a post-report selloff before I resume the postion. Thus far YTD I'm up 3.04% in this stock.

View attachment 25618
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AMD has taken a beating after the earnings report, I may take an entry today, if I do it will be kept on a short leash.

View attachment 25700
 
You might be right on this one JTH. I got out of this back in 12 and have been reluctant to jump back on the wagon. I was hoping for a little more downward action (with nothing ground breaking on the horizon) but it might be primed right where it's at.
 
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