JTH's Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
Gee, don't you all like playing in uncharted territory - where's the courage to blaze the wilderness.
Click to expand...

Today I am 100% I. It is not in uncharted territory. At COB, I will be 100% G. The announcement that Italy formed a governement knocked the I-fund for a fly ball... I'm thinking people will cash in on the quick increase and bring the price down a bit tomorrow then it will continue a nice long rise through the Summer. If I didn't have an unused IFT, I'd stay in but, if I can get an extra thousand or so by moving out an in, Yay! The most I think I'll miss out on if it continues to rise is $6K. My goal is to increase my value $100K this year. I'm up $40K so far which puts me ahead but quite a bit of that was from the 1st week of January.
 
NiteFlyer said:
Today I am 100% I. It is not in uncharted territory. At COB, I will be 100% G. The announcement that Italy formed a governement knocked the I-fund for a fly ball... I'm thinking people will cash in on the quick increase and bring the price down a bit tomorrow then it will continue a nice long rise through the Summer. If I didn't have an unused IFT, I'd stay in but, if I can get an extra thousand or so by moving out an in, Yay! The most I think I'll miss out on if it continues to rise is $6K. My goal is to increase my value $100K this year. I'm up $40K so far which puts me ahead but quite a bit of that was from the 1st week of January.
Click to expand...

I hope the FV is nice to you today... Good luck!
 
An observation: Whenever I post something about the market that is negative, I hardly get a response. Inversely if I post something positive, I get a flood of responses.
 
JTH said:
An observation: Whenever I post something about the market that is negative, I hardly get a response. Inversely if I post something positive, I get a flood of responses.
Click to expand...
How bout that. It's on its own. Grab on to it. Respectfully, the writing is on the wall.
 
the writing is on the wall because most folks prefer not looking directly into the mirror. it's easy to sell warm marshmellows and chocolate.
 
JTH said:
An observation: Whenever I post something about the market that is negative, I hardly get a response. Inversely if I post something positive, I get a flood of responses.
Click to expand...

This is the bias effect. If you are long you blow off any bad news and try to find the positives. Reverse, of course for being bearish.

So, most of us are probably fully invested.

I tend to look for negatives when I'm long to help me exit at the right time. Too many times the bias effect has cost me a lot of money. That's where stop loss targets are handy. But you have to execute the sell not keep moving your stop lower ( I've done this). Don't be afraid to sell if it will be a losing trade. Too many people refuse to take a loss and just hold on against all odds and reason.

Anyway, good observation.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
I hope the FV is nice to you today... Good luck!
Click to expand...

The I-Fund did well but, I think the FV looked like it should have gone the other way and been much better. Oh well. I hope jumping out was the right thing to do. I miscalculated the minimum time I'd be out though. I was thinking I could jump back in COB today but, today isn't the 1st of the month so... I can put the request in after Noon for it to take effect COB tomorrow (or just wait until closer to Noon tomorrow for more of an idea of where the market may be headed then. I hope I miss two down days and not two up days. If they are up, I hope many of you are in to take advantage of them.
 
I liked Toms cheery little talk about the massive debt/cash cycles of the recent past (2000, 2007) and how it appears we are again at near the edge of a looming chasm that B&Hers will see their gains merciessly devoured!!! As investors tumble heedlessly into the greedy maw of the all consuming behemoth thaat is the Stock Market!!! Where your life savings are eaten alive!! nom nom nom burp.

well that was added onto by me a bit.
 
Hypothetical Projection: Using existing trendlines and Fibonacci as a projection tool, this is a Head & Shoulders taking us to 1650, 1560, 1610, 1580, then ultimately 1500 by August. That would be a 3.3% climb to the upside with an overall -10% decline to the downside.

View attachment 23607
 
That's a lot like peein in the wind. 1656 is a for sure. Panic buyers are going to take us for a sweet ride to even higher levels.
 
That projection would be nice, but after the dip today (esp in Transp.) if there are a couple of more down days will you have to redraw the chart??
or is forecast still basically the same.

I would like the ride up even better if the market dips to say...1545 ;)
 
FAB1 said:
That projection would be nice, but after the dip today (esp in Transp.) if there are a couple of more down days will you have to redraw the chart??
or is forecast still basically the same.

I would like the ride up even better if the market dips to say...1545 ;)
Click to expand...

Well, today's action certainly didn't give any validity to the chart I posted last night, but I don't pay much attention to my projections, they are more or less exercises for my imagination. Much like this inverted head & Shoulders with (does this sound familiar) a 1660 price objective. Lookie here, this one at least has a left shoulder & Head...

View attachment 23619
 
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