JTH's Account Talk

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Bquat said:
Well Birch would say, where is he anyway?, As the bullish rally continues it will be followed by the economy which strengthens the dollar which strenghten the rally until they both perpetuate each other. Least I think that's what He would say. Just giving it a try.:D
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Birchtree said:
"Looking back to the last period in which the dollar strengthened sustainably, the 1990s, the greenback rose in tandem with stock valuations as part of an investment led recovery in the U.S. economy."
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SAME THING!!! Amazing! :laugh:
 
Bquat said:
Well Birch would say, where is he anyway?, As the bullish rally continues it will be followed by the economy which strengthens the dollar which strenghten the rally until they both perpetuate each other. Least I think that's what He would say. Just giving it a try.:D
Click to expand...

Sounds like a perpetual motion machine.

Where can I buy this stock!??
 
For those of you who have concerns over Monday's action, I'll leave you with these tidbits.

Over the last 2 years, for the S&P 500, there have been 20 occasions where the last trading day of the week, and the first trading day of the week were down, for an accumulative average of -1.75% (average percentile returns of those 20 occasions, each occasion being 2 days)

The following day (usually a Tuesday) there is a 75% probability of a down day for an accumulative average of .25% (average percentile returns of those 20 days)
The following day there is a 45% probability of a down day, followed by the next a 30% probability

Of those 20 occasions, the accumulative 3-day average is -.59% (average percentile returns of those 60 days)

Bottom line, if a 2 year 20 occasion 3-day -59% probability doesn't settle well with you, then you may want to consider leaving the markets. If you decide to jump in, then Tuesday may present you your best opportunity

I really could care less about whats going on in Europe, overreactions have a way of correcting themselves, best of luck...Jason
 
rktect1 said:
Can a TSPer hope for a five percent drop?
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Um no, you would not be able to short the markets during that time......

You might "ask" for a 5% drop if you had unlimited IFT's :notrust: but no, please don't hope for 5%, then there are worse things going on! :blink:
 
me thinks rktect1 is looking for a better price point to move more into equities, but with a 5% drop would you want to? :cool:
 
Im only 35% in right now so a drop of 5% is a loss of less than 2% for me. No big whoop if at that point I jump all in with my remaining 65%. ASSuming the market then heads higher.
 
JTH said:
For those of you who have concerns over Monday's action, I'll leave you with these tidbits.

Over the last 2 years, for the S&P 500, there have been 20 occasions where the last trading day of the week, and the first trading day of the week were down, for an accumulative average of -1.75% (average percentile returns of those 20 occasions, each occasion being 2 days)

The following day (usually a Tuesday) there is a 75% probability of a down day for an accumulative average of .25% (average percentile returns of those 20 days)
The following day there is a 45% probability of a down day, followed by the next a 30% probability

Of those 20 occasions, the accumulative 3-day average is -.59% (average percentile returns of those 60 days)

Bottom line, if a 2 year 20 occasion 3-day -.59% probability doesn't settle well with you, then you may want to consider leaving the markets. If you decide to jump in, then Tuesday may present you your best opportunity

I really could care less about whats going on in Europe, overreactions have a way of correcting themselves, best of luck...Jason
Click to expand...

rktect1 said:
Im only 35% in right now so a drop of 5% is a loss of less than 2% for me. No big whoop if at that point I jump all in with my remaining 65%. ASSuming the market then heads higher.
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I don't find it probable we will get such a deep drawdown, of those 20 occasions, the the top 2 were in the -3% range.

In addition, for the S&P 500, over the last 2 years, there have been 213 negative 3-day price performance occasions, the average being -1.53% (down days only, 3-day price performance over 213 occasions)

As always, past performance is not indicative of future results...
 
Mar 15
JTH said:
I'm not going to guess when the top will happen, could be now, days, or weeks, frankly it's of no concern, just make the money while the opportunities are there. Putting some cash to work, ENPH @ 5.96

View attachment 22921
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I suck, I didn't wait for a good setup so I went in at a position of known disadvantage, and paid the price. Had a -.10% stop at 5.53 and it triggered going as low as 5.50, the good news is it sold at 5.60 but it's still a loss of -.089%

View attachment 22960
 
JTH said:
For those of you who have concerns over Monday's action, I'll leave you with these tidbits.

Over the last 2 years, for the S&P 500, there have been 20 occasions where the last trading day of the week, and the first trading day of the week were down, for an accumulative average of -1.75% (average percentile returns of those 20 occasions, each occasion being 2 days)

The following day (usually a Tuesday) there is a 75% probability of a down day for an accumulative average of .25% (average percentile returns of those 20 days)
The following day there is a 45% probability of a down day, followed by the next a 30% probability

Of those 20 occasions, the accumulative 3-day average is -.59% (average percentile returns of those 60 days)

Bottom line, if a 2 year 20 occasion 3-day -59% probability doesn't settle well with you, then you may want to consider leaving the markets. If you decide to jump in, then Tuesday may present you your best opportunity

I really could care less about whats going on in Europe, overreactions have a way of correcting themselves, best of luck...Jason
Click to expand...

Good evening

Thank you everyone for the multiple likes, it is appreciated. It took about an hour to crunch those numbers and make it sound somewhat intelligible, time well spent. Today's pullback was light and considering how the futures played out, I'd call it a win for the bulls. It looks like I'm stuck in the pullback, I'm still above the entry, but not by much, it will be fun to see how this plays out.

The transports look healthy :)

View attachment 22966
 
Good afternoon

The markets are still within my expectations, I do have some minor short-term concerns over the recent lower high/lows. I originally thought next week would be the pullback we now know this isn't the case. I did not purpose my IFTs correctly this month, so I've been forced to absorb this pullback, it looks like I'll be riding out the month invested.

We have minor support on the transports

View attachment 22986
 
JTH said:
Good afternoon

The markets are still within my expectations, I do have some minor short-term concerns over the recent lower high/lows. I originally thought next week would be the pullback we now know this isn't the case. I did not purpose my IFTs correctly this month, so I've been forced to absorb this pullback, it looks like I'll be riding out the month invested.

We have minor support on the transports

View attachment 22986
Click to expand...

It looks like all the supports are becoming more "minor". Flags are starting to droop.
 
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