JTH's Account Talk

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Good evening

Well, it's time to enter the next half of the month (post options expiration.) In January about this time is when my TSP account made an exit and watched the market continue to leave the station. As of this writing, I'm sitting at at YTD high of 6.10% and have been invested 75% 25 of 33 days, which is substantially more than my minimum 50% invested goal.

Enough about me, it's a new week, anything can happen, while I did call the top on 13 Feb, I haven't seen anything concrete that tells me this market is going to pullback. I will however say that closing prices have been losing momentum. Also, the the number of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 SMA has been declining, creating a divergence from price.

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JTH said:
I've notice more than once folks from Hawaii don't care for the lower 48s, it's like they get home sick. TACP, good stuff that's the bread and butter!
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I lived in Hawaii (Oahu) for more than 40 years. I totally miss it . Now I live above the lower 48s.:(
 
Good morning

Markets putting in new intraday highs, on 13 Feb I called the top, it is now obvious I was wrong.
 
JTH said:
Good morning

Markets putting in new intraday highs, on 13 Feb I called the top, it is now obvious I was wrong.
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You are fine guy. It's always better to be wrong calling the top and lose some gain, then to be wrong and get caught for loss like I usually do.
 
Bquat said:
You are fine guy. It's always better to be wrong calling the top and lose some gain, then to be wrong and get caught for loss like I usually do.
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Thanks my friend, it stings a bit but that's what I get for imposing my view upon the markets. One thing is for sure, once again my patience is getting tested.
 
Transports now at all-time highs - let's see a pretty graph. The Dow and SPX should chase to all time highs this week.
 
Jason,

I think your call was close to being right. The charts appear to be in agreement with you. :) The big unknown to me and what I perceive as the market driver is the daily POMO injection by the FED. With 1 to 5 Billion per day this month being injected appears to make the market continue up. One of these days, it will end. Probably when the FED runs out of digital ink.
 
The Fed never runs out of dollars - they own the printing presses. They have committed to keep rates low through 2015 - I don't always necessarily believe everything they say so I watch what they do - and they are buying $85 billion of stuff every month.
 
Good evening

I was looking for a reversal on Tuesday, not only did it not happen, but we pushed into new territory. This means one of two things, either the top is a little further away than I thought it was, or I was completely wrong and should jump back in. Problem is, if I jump back in then it requires a deeper level of commitment on my part, riding it out till the end of the month, starting the new month already invested, thus preserving the oh-so-valuable IFTs.

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What are your thoughts on patterns continuing year after year? We've had similar strong bull markets around this time of year at the beginning of 2011, 2012, and now 2013. 2011 saw a sharp correction in the second week of March, punctuated by the Japan disaster. 2012, there was a moderate pullback in the first week of March. It seems this year we could see another pullback around the same time period, but I'm thinking it might come the last week of February. Am I crazy?
 
Sensei said:
What are your thoughts on patterns continuing year after year? We've had similar strong bull markets around this time of year at the beginning of 2011, 2012, and now 2013. 2011 saw a sharp correction in the second week of March, punctuated by the Japan disaster. 2012, there was a moderate pullback in the first week of March. It seems this year we could see another pullback around the same time period, but I'm thinking it might come the last week of February. Am I crazy?
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I do stay aware of the most recent 3-year patterns, but I also yield to the overall seasonal historical patterns going back to the 1950s. Problem is we are approaching all-time highs in many of the major indexes, there just isn't a sustained history at these levels from which to gauge the markets. The only thing I know for certain is that the trend is up until proven otherwise, and every time I've gone against it this year, I've been left out of the party.
 
JimmyJoe said:
Get back in JTH. I've got some real "spidy" sense going on about this market.
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Thanks my friend, it's more of an IFT issue, I'd love to get in, but once again, the limited IFT clouds my judgement. The good news is I still have 1 IFT, at least having an option is better than standing on the sidelines and being forced to watch others make money. I've scaled back my position in my USAA mutual funds, so if I decide to jump back in the TSP, I'll feel better about it.
 
Re: JTH's Account Talki

Good morning.Sry can't post chart from my tablet. 30 min vix looks like v bottom.
 
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