JTH's Account Talk

[wavecoder]

Dunno... I'm kinda like Birchtree on this one. Jan is typically all green from this point on. Lo, look yonder. There's that big old elephant in the room now. 1500 SPX is within sight, yearning all by buyers. As a friend told me many years ago, "just get in."

not a bad way to go. birch is proof that buying and collecting shares over time will make you rich, he's done really good for himself. if this strategy works for you, and you have years to stay in the game then go for it

in birch's case, it's not chasing the market, it's share accumulation

 

[JTH]

not a bad way to go. birch is proof that buying and collecting shares over time will make you rich, he's done really good for himself. if this strategy works for you, and you have years to stay in the game then go for it

in birch's case, it's not chasing the market, it's share accumulation

I happen to agree, while Buy n Hold is not the strategy for me, if done correctly (with unwavering dedication) it can work rather well (dependent on where the market is when you retire.) The biggest issue I have with it (within the confines of TSP) is the lack of dividends. If Mr. Long would offer dividends to those who keep their money invested for a certain period of time, then I'd be much more inclined to stay (at least partially) invested.

 

[JTH]

Good evening

My intermediate timing showed a pullback starting 1-3 days ago, so far that same projection still holds. But the channels are holding up rather well, and as I've said, I do not predict tops as well as bottoms. At least my price targets were met for the markets, and since I try to play the middle, this month has been a success thus far. I still plan on making an IFT back into stocks this month, I doubt I'll get the ideal price to line up with the IFT, it almost never happens that way.

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[JTH]

This market is plum crazy and I can't fathom it can go much higher without taking a breather. I can't even find statistical data to help me gauge this condition, it's that bullish...

 

[JTH]

This market is plum crazy and I can't fathom it can go much higher without taking a breather. I can't even find statistical data to help me gauge this condition, it's that bullish...

I hate to do this, but I have an appointment tomorrow and may not have access when needed, so I'll IFT into 100S. Some of my indicators are overbought, but most aren't, so I do believe there is still more room to the upside. This is a tough situation to be in...

 

[Birchtree]

You simply can't fight the tape - the money flow will bury you. Remember the SPX is now +120% above the March 9th, 2009 low. I see where Union Pacific hit a new multi-year high in response to earnings releases. It hasn't traded this high since 1969. Tramsports are leading the way forward.

 

[JTH]

You simply can't fight the tape - the money flow will bury you. Remember the SPX is now +120% above the March 9th, 2009 low. I see where Union Pacific hit a new multi-year high in response to earnings releases. It hasn't traded this high since 1969. Tramsports are leading the way forward.

Yep, it was a bad two weeks to be conservative, that was a painful 2.94% lack of gain.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Well, I'm back in the markets for better or worse. I anticipate playing February much like I played January, primarily invested in the first half of the month, and sidelined the second half. I didn't catch that extra 3% but my IRA did, so it wasn't a loss.

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[JTH]

Good morning

As for AGG, it's broken below the lower Bollinger Band 4 times in the last 2 months and has also broken below significant support. The 5/10 day price performance is the lowest we've seen this month at -.48% & -.43% and I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the 200SMA.

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[Birchtree]

I noticed our good natured friend, amoeba, is on the march again. I believe he stated the other day "the cyclical bull market may actually be a secular bull in disguise." Can you imagine the wealth that is going to be made in the next several years? Be in to win.

 

[rktect1]

Where you at jth?

I need a little input for today by someone with lots of common sense.

 

[JTH]

Where you at jth?

I need a little input for today by someone with lots of common sense.

Sorry my friend, I've neglected my usual TSP duties.

February is the weakest of the best 6 months, with the beginning of March being statistically strong. I'm looking for the first half to be flat-to-up with a pullback in the second half. Take note we have Witching on Friday Feb 15th followed by President's day on the 18th. This may prove to be a pivot point, traditionaly to the downside. This is what the historical data tells us.

As to what I think, I think it's time to play the up/down trading range game. Get out on the right day you're a hero, the wrong one you're a zero. In a BULL market it's smarter to be invested, especially starting out a new month (and March.) Anyone who attempts to time these conditions is more likely to be wrong than right. The intermediate charts cry for a pullback, as do the indicators, but of the last 20+ years I've analyzed, I've not seen such conditions, so I have no data for comparison. Look to the futures (2-4am) they have a personality that speaks to the daily markets (what the markets want to do, but not necessarily what they will do), also look at the last 30 minutes of trading, they often speak to the next days action when we are trending.

All-in-all February is a tricky month to play, the best advice I have is to not let this month's view bleed into your March outlook, this is what happened to many during the March 9th 2009 666.79 bottom (the bottom of the bear market that kept many on the sidelines for far too long.)

 

[JimmyJoe]

Sorry my friend, I've neglected my usual TSP duties.

February is the weakest of the best 6 months, with the beginning of March being statistically strong. I'm looking for the first half to be flat-to-up with a pullback in the second half. Take note we have Witching on Friday Feb 15th followed by President's day on the 18th. This may prove to be a pivot point, traditionaly to the downside. This is what the historical data tells us.

As to what I think, I think it's time to play the up/down trading range game. Get out on the right day you're a hero, the wrong one you're a zero. In a BULL market it's smarter to be invested, especially starting out a new month (and March.) Anyone who attempts to time these conditions is more likely to be wrong than right. The intermediate charts cry for a pullback, as do the indicators, but of the last 20+ years I've analyzed, I've not seen such conditions, so I have no data for comparison. Look to the futures (2-4am) they have a personality that speaks to the daily markets (what the markets want to do, but not necessarily what they will do), also look at the last 30 minutes of trading, they often speak to the next days action when we are trending.

All-in-all February is a tricky month to play, the best advice I have is to not let this month's view bleed into your March outlook, this is what happened to many during the March 9th 2009 666.79 bottom (the bottom of the bear market that kept many on the sidelines for far too long.)

JTH.. Those are remarkable suggestions that could not be said any better. You brought forth several positive factors that encourage the investors out here. Using the Bloomberg futures to help a person to decide is a good one. I'll add that if you're unsure of how to invest here using your TSP, then slowly get into the market when you are not sure of how the following day's or week's market will go. Go 50C/S/I, i.e. factors there of, 20F, and 30G, till you can pull the trigger to 80C,S/I, 10F, 10G. Then 90C or S or I, and 10G. All of us have been taken to the cleaners by the market at one time or another, but always believing that you can do better is a lifestyle change as well as a change of approach to the market. Yes Feb is a tricky month but history says that it is either flat, or the recent history of the last 3 years suggests that it is a positive month. With today's bull market, it's very likely to go up. Most of the people on the tracker that have done well so far this year are staying "in it." They don't think it's going down. Think more like an investor. Stay in it for a month, especially in this time of a bull market. I'll have to add, follow Birchtree. He is a seasoned pro. He may make you mad, as he makes big money and taunts or talks directly to some people on this board, but he does it to ultimately encourage people to get in to the market and make some money. We all need the extra cash. Follow the seasonality calender of the month's performance posted by Tom in his market comments. I screen capture them and file them for reference. It is your own responsibility to learn market behavior and move forward according to your own heart. It really is that simple. Trust in your fund selections after carefully analysis. There is not much closer to who you are than how you regard your money. So good luck to you all and I must add that since I spoke a lot on the topic of the stocks and a way to invest in them, I can not be held responsible for how you invest. I'm just an average investor, capable of mistakes in funding, but personally, I plan for very few mistakes in order to make 20%-30% this year, because I'm due. Did you notice how blatantly selfish that sounded? Sorry but that's how it goes on this board sometimes/most of the time. It's just business.:toung:

 

[rktect1]

That is a huge target jimmy joe

good luck

 

[JimmyJoe]

That is a huge target jimmy joe

good luck

Thanks rktect1. I mean it. 25% at the end of the year. My pip for Jan is about 4.5%. I took the advice of someone on this board that said the S fund was losing steam, some time around last week. Just because of that, I'm not messing with my fully locked and loaded fund allotments through the middle of March. Maybe not ever. Like I said, Im making at least 25% by the end of the year. More like 35%. Lookin at the Saturday buzz, led by Birch, before I settle in to reading any of his posts yet, this market is gonna rise above anything foreseen. The SPX is gonna hit 1700 by the end of the year. It's so hot that the analysts are lowering their retoric. An agenda maybe? Whatever. I'm through listening to their trading advice. I'm not here to follow their commentary. I follow the facts of those that know this market is rising, like a jet. Here's some advice, if I had any gold, I'd sell it.

 

[wavecoder]

25-30% is hard to pull off unless the market either has a monster year, or you time a few moves perfectly, which is hard to do also with the IFT limtations, but good luck, it's possible

 

[clester]

Thanks is to ktect1. I mean it. 25% at the end of the year. My pip for Jan is about 4.5%. I took the advice of someone on this board that said the S fund was losing steam, some time around last week. Just because of that, I'm not messing with my fully locked and loaded fund allotments through the middle of March. Maybe not ever. Like I said, Im making at least 25% by the end of the year. More like 35%. Lookin at the Saturday buzz, led by Birch, before I settle in to reading any of his posts yet, this market is gonna rise above anything foreseen. The SPX is gonna hit 1700 by the end of the year. It's so hot that the analysts are lowering their retoric. An agenda maybe? Whatever. I'm through listening to their trading advice. I'm not here to follow their commentary. I follow the facts of those that know this market is rising, like a jet. Here's some advice, if I had any gold, I'd sell it.

My advice to anyone out there Is to listen to yourself. Dont follow anyones advice. Take anything anyone says as just something to consider and make up your own mind. You will be much happier. Eveyone makes mistakes, but you have the responsibility for your money. Trust yourself just dont listen to your emotions.

 

[Birchtree]

I try and read everyone that posts - even the nickel and dime guys. Being a disciplined buy and holder is actually difficult. Snort. So I'm always open to further information that helps with my digestion and right now the bulls are running and I'm in front of them.

 

[JTH]

My advice to anyone out there Is to listen to yourself. Dont follow anyones advice. Take anything anyone says as just something to consider and make up your own mind. You will be much happier. Eveyone makes mistakes, but you have the responsibility for your money. Trust yourself just dont listen to your emotions.

I second that. I do see from time to time information posted that i disagree with, but if I pissed in everyone's Wheaties I wouldn't have too many friends. It is very important to validate the information you base your trades on.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

We have not broken key levels of support just yet, so I see no reason to get defensive. I see lots of folks calling a top, that's good, the more people call a top, the more likely they will be wrong. Keep an eye on the Transports which have put in a slightly lower top.

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