JTH's Account Talk

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I pushed the remaining 45% of my chips back onto the board. Seems like I like to do that at the top.

Every now and then I should get it right! S and C are looking too good to be true, i really like where the S is relative to the 30 day sma!
 
With so many people going nuts over the S & C Funds right now I'm thinking we're past due for a pull back. :suspicious:
 
Cactus said:
With so many people going nuts over the S & C Funds right now I'm thinking we're past due for a pull back. :suspicious:
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That was exactly how I felt last year when I was at 4% by January 15-20. But January ended at 7.5% and rolled right into February for another 4%. I can't miss that ride two years in a row. Cross fingers.
 
rktect1 said:
Cactus said:
With so many people going nuts over the S & C Funds right now I'm thinking we're past due for a pull back. :suspicious:
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That was exactly how I felt last year when I was at 4% by January 15-20. But January ended at 7.5% and rolled right into February for another 4%. I can't miss that ride two years in a row. Cross fingers.
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And to get back to what Cactus said, maybe that is exactly what "they" are hoping for...
 
Will we see that pullback anytime soon? Tom says pay attention to the chart formations more than the indicators...but that is pretty hard to do given how long we have been in overbought conditions...

im exhausted and confused (and a rookie)...:confused:
 
gronk007 said:
Will we see that pullback anytime soon? Tom says pay attention to the chart formations more than the indicators...but that is pretty hard to do given how long we have been in overbought conditions...

im exhausted and confused (and a rookie)...:confused:
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after 4q earnings season I would expect a pullback then. usually 4q earnings reports are the strongest of all the 4q's, so usually january is a strong month.

this year maybe even more so with the people selling to avoid the capital gains tax hikes in december, they have all been buying into the market now driving it up. and QE
 
gronk007 said:
Thanks sniper...
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no problem. like clester said though the overall market is getting extremely bullish/greedy. if you're out of stocks right now I would hold my hand and not chase the market yet until the next pullback / consolidation. chasing more often than not gets people into trouble
 
So the follow up question is does one move back into S or is the near term timing uncertainty of a pullback too close? Obviously all responses are considered for educational purposes only..:)
 
gronk007 said:
So the follow up question is does one move back into S or is the near term timing uncertainty of a pullback too close? Obviously all responses are considered for educational purposes only..:)
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It really depends on your strategy and risk tolerance, I don't think anyone can answer that for you. As for me personally, I wouldn't chase (basically terminology for jumping in after a big move), but that's just me. I did make an IFT to 100% S fund today, but that was mainly because I was already invested (C 50%/ S 50%), which is more of a switching allocation than jumping in from cash.

the general consensus though is if you're young, go aggressive because you usually win if you're invested over the long term and have years to make it up. if you're near retirement and protecting a large nest egg, be more cautious. then there's some of us who are traders and like to try to time things with our own system, a lot on this site are willing to share their insights :) When in doubt, follow consistent performers. I lurked for 2 years on this forum following ContrarianJeff and Intrepid_Timer until I felt confident enough to strike out on my own.

Anyway if you have any more questions feel free to PM me or stop by my thread, I don't want to flood JTH's thread with my posts :)
 
gronk007

We are in a bull market, If you are new to trading, I wouldn't try to time it, just ride it through the ups and downs. Trading within the confines of TSP is best resigned for those with comprehensive experience, a set strategy, and some sort of back-tested system(s) they can use to provide guidance. All others should get on the BirchTrain and stay there. Too often, new investors (me included) make mistakes that cost them both time & money, I've done years of reading and research, it's a continuous never-ending learning process I happen to enjoy. For those who don't enjoy that sort of pain and suffering, I recommend Intrepid Timer's Prescription Service, he one of a handful of proven investors within this forum.
 
sniper said:
no problem. like clester said though the overall market is getting extremely bullish/greedy. if you're out of stocks right now I would hold my hand and not chase the market yet until the next pullback / consolidation. chasing more often than not gets people into trouble
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Dunno... I'm kinda like Birchtree on this one. Jan is typically all green from this point on. Lo, look yonder. There's that big old elephant in the room now. 1500 SPX is within sight, yearning all by buyers. As a friend told me many years ago, "just get in."
 
JimmyJoe said:
Dunno... I'm kinda like Birchtree on this one. Jan is typically all green from this point on. Lo, look yonder. There's that big old elephant in the room now. 1500 SPX is within sight, yearning all by buyers. As a friend told me many years ago, "just get in."
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That wasn't around the summer of 2007 was it???
 
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