JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

True. There is also the 0.618 retracement level from the June-September advance that lands in the 1346 area. IMO, it is not out of the question to take a shot down there to get the sentiment more bearish and then a nice little Thanksgiving rally.

Check out the 15minute PnF Price objective

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[JTH]

Good morning

There's a difference between having balls of steel verses sheer stupidity, some times it's a fine line to balance. Tough market to play with, I thought I had a great entry @ 787.08, now it's a decent entry but not a great one. 666 is my line in the sand, I'd like to not absorb more than a 3% loss, the biggest problem is it's early in the month, I'd hate to be sidelined for too long.

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[Steel_Magnolia]

...Tough market to play with...

Good morning, my friend!

Bollinger says that price shouldn't stay below the line for more than four days in a row. Either price will go back above the line or the line will fall to meet price. Looking at the chart, I thought your entry was spot-on. What a crazy market.

 

[JTH]

Good morning, my friend!

Bollinger says that price shouldn't stay below the line for more than four days in a row. Either price will go back above the line or the line will fall to meet price. Looking at the chart, I thought your entry was spot-on. What a crazy market.

Yes, this market is crazy, we've seen some substancial technical damage in a short amount of time, once again limited IFTs are are affecting my ability to make a sound decision...

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[JTH]

I'm buying in my USAA account today. One of my systems triggered a buy yesterday it only triggers 3-6 buys a year and has a fair success rate. It's an overbought/oversold system, but it doesn't speak to embedded conditions. It will either be really right, or really wrong Big brass ones I'd say...

 

[amoeba]

amoeba thinks this is another headfake

Good morning

There's a difference between having balls of steel verses sheer stupidity, some times it's a fine line to balance. Tough market to play with, I thought I had a great entry @ 787.08, now it's a decent entry but not a great one. 666 is my line in the sand, I'd like to not absorb more than a 3% loss, the biggest problem is it's early in the month, I'd hate to be sidelined for too long.

It is actually - today - a good morning; so far....but....as witnessed by the days following our entry on 11/12 (at 687, correct?), were a couple empty intraday headfakes, followed by continued selling. I suppose there's some solice in cutting my losses quickly (market would have to jump ~2% to get back what I would have lost had I stayed in); but the TSP trades don't apply to anyone else but us. So.....to think like those larger masses....that money is going out of stocks and, some of it, into bonds (huge volumes in the AGG). The mild upside reaction, heavy volume for a friday, shows lack of conviction (and belief) in today.

The 666 sandline appear to be holding. Question is.....if it jumps 4% back to 690+.....and there's nothing but hot air on the FC, is that a sell? I think its another headfake...but almost always wrong on these, which is a good sign for you.....but at least I'm about 10% better than last year...ooops, make that 8%.

Good luck. You have more steel than me, apparently.

 

[JTH]

Re: amoeba thinks this is another headfake

Good luck. You have more steel than me, apparently.

We'll be alright we've been through much worse than this From my perspective SPX 1370 & EMW 680 are the key levels to watch (50% Jun-Sep Retracement) if we can get back above (and hold) these levels, than we 'll finish out the year just fine.

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[JTH]

Good morning

I realize most are stoked about the recent appearance of a reversal in the markets. Bear in mind many of us are already in (and under) so we have a vested interest in being excited about the reversal. If you're sitting on the sidelines you may want to take notice, we have 3 consecutive lower highs & lows (yellow circles) and often a strong downslide can get a 50% bounce to the SPX 1388 area, then fall back down or meager about and settle into a trading channel. Point being, until we firmly establish a higher low & high, this market is in a downtrend and should be treated as such. If you take an entry here, be prepared to accept the downside risk that goes with it, the Bears control prices. (Jason steps off his soap box, thanks for reading.)


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[goforit]

are you moving because what tom wrote in his column that next week is showing a buy 100s? i have sat in the G entirely to long but 8 months ago i was at -8/9% played with ift's to get within -.5% for the year and decided to sit in G until after election and let NOV/DEC/JAN do as they seem to always do but because of all the bs uncertainty out there i am now wondering if i should wait for just a little longer. i know we have seen about 3/4% drop the last couple days and now today it wants to give a little back. i think this is a fake out and just people thinking they are getting a bargain so some are investing. i do not have anything to back up my next statement and i should not base it on feelings but i got this feeling next week will be the sam as this because people are not over the election yet but the week of thanksgiving will be the turn around week. i wish i could chart but i do not know how. thanks for listening good luck investing.

so i just revisited this opinion i had above and from what the market did it seems i may have been right. yesterday i put 100% S and friday if all goes well i will jump before the deadline. i see today started well and then... WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED... like yesterday the market was just crazy up and down and barely positive. two days of positive. is this going to be the year the day before and the day after are JUNK oh 50 years of data... most people tell me to stay the long road. i agree but for the last 3-5 years its been hard too when your so close to retirement(5-7 yrs). when my guts and N#@$ are up to it i still think hit-an-run work too .. i just have to rely on people like yourself and all the news channels, finacial channels and so on and so forth.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING. finally out of the garage 100% S

 

[JTH]

Good morning

The upper green line was drawn in a few days ago. It is based off the distance from the lower red line to the lower green line. This area coincides with where the drop occured. Often times TA matches up in several areas, when it does, you know the odds favor you.

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[JTH]

Good morning

Black Friday will now be called Black Thursday. I went to Walmart last night to gather some Intel on the economy. If there is something wrong with the economy, walmart shoppers don't know it. The place was packed, lines everywhere, carts full of crap of stuff they don't need. American consumers are absolute whores, it is downright shameful.

Anyways, back to stuff you and I care about, money...

On the Dailys AGG is in a rising wedge, and the dollar is putting in a rounded top. At this point in time the markets have exceeded my expectations, I'm not going to question it, I'm just going to line my pockets with cash and look the other way....

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[burrocrat]

ha! i too was planning on doing black thursday but had a change of heart, was looking forward to rubbing shoulders with the huddled masses, and i'm not talking about church. it started snowing and blowing and looking at the fuel, time, and end up in the frozen ditch costs i decided to fire up the computer. here's what i found. honestly, it has something to do with investing at the end.

i got all the video games and extra controller for $5-$10 cheaper each with gauranteed selection and free shipping, +$50 burro. i got an equivalent jumbotron tv with free shipping for $50 more, -$50 burro. i also picked up everything i wanted for myself with nobody pawing it over first at break even price, plus free shipping again. i got everything i was after with no out of stocks or jostling, and i saved the fuel and time. only things that are left are jammies socks underwear and stocking stuffers picked up in the normal course of travel/business.

bottom line is i blew 3/4 of my christmas wad already and never left the house. no
matter how good the black friday numbers come in i think that is an important figure. most of the 'whores' are already spent by now. and there's no more free checks coming between now and then. and even if there were it'd get spent on cigarrettes and booze anyway seeings how the kids have been taken care of.

by the way, did you happen to get any whore's phone numbers down at the wallyworld? i miight like to make a donation.

 

[Birchtree]

Ah, give me that last 30 minute push as close to 13,000 as possible. Next week should be profitable.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

IFT EOB today from 100S to 100G. Although I'd rather start off December invested, my charts tell me now is a good time to get out. With a 3.5% MTD return (as of this writing) now is a good time to take a break and re-evaluate the markets from the sidelines.

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[Birchtree]

I just finished looking at the tracker and a song popped into my head - three blind mice, see how they run.

 

[JTH]

I just finished looking at the tracker and a song popped into my head - three blind mice, see how they run.

Some folks may not realize the majority of my 2012 IFTs were in the F-Fund up to September. Reason being, I played the bonds heavily during what is typically called the "Sell in May" season. During that time I stayed in the 500s on the Auto Tracker. Over the last 3 months, I've climbed over 450 slots gaining over 11% , not bad for someone who limited their risk exposure. Now that I'm on the sidelines again, you are more than welcome to catch me if you can...

 

[Birchtree]

I'm up for the challenge and will probably rattle your doors by the end of the week. It's also good to see you back on track.

 

[JTH]

I'm up for the challenge and will probably rattle your doors by the end of the week. It's also good to see you back on track.

Thanks BT, it's good to be taking on risk again, playing the F-Fund is sooooo boring, it's hard to watch others making dollars while you're making pennys.

 

[JTH]

Good afternoon

It will be a busy month for me, so I may not have time to post updates during the intra-day. Having regretfully exited to the sidelines, I am now forced to look for a good entry in December. If the markets start off the month in the red, then I may jump into the F-Fund early in the week, then jump into the S-Fund on 12 December. From there I will either exit on Friday the 28th, or start the new year invested, then exiting on 16 Jan with a possible re-entry on 28 Jan. In case you haven't noticed, my 2013 plan is already in place.

December Outlook: Statistically speaking we are in the best 6 months of the year with December being in the middle of the best 3 months of the year. Within the realm of TSP, timing the month of December is not advised, long & medium-term investors are better off staying invested. For short-term investors, timing the TSP will be difficult, small caps do well in December with the middle of the month being the weakest, I expect a buying opportunity in the 2nd week.

Over the last 20 years the S&P 500 has had 4 negative Decembers. If the December low breaches the November low, then I expect the January low to breech the December low.

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Over the last 5 years the Russell 2000 has outperformed the Russell 1000 during the month of December, meaning the S-Fund should outperform the C-Fund.

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2013 Outlook: At this time (unless we close the month above SPX1440) I believe the 2013-2014 Bear market has already begun (we just don't know it) in 2013 we will visit 1280-1130, that would be a 13-23% correction off the 1475 top.

 

[JTH]

IFT 100F EOB Today