JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

My Daily chart is telling me prices are still embedded to the upside...

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[JTH]

Important potential triple bottom coming up on the Bearish Dollar ETF, check out the last candlestick.

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[nasa1974]

My Daily chart is telling me prices are still embedded to the upside...

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JTH, Sure hope so. If you look at "todays" chart each bounce is lower than the previous high. Hoping we have enough room to finish above the previous days close.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Important potential triple bottom coming up on the Bearish Dollar ETF, check out the last candlestick.

View attachment 17640

Hmmm... definitely another bearish indicator for the stock market.

 

[JTH]

Hmmm... definitely another bearish indicator for the stock market.

I'm afraid you're right, that third low has broken through the previous 2, we appear to be having a broadening wedge going on here, with lower lows and higher highs, I'm not a big fan of these detrended patterns.

 

[JTH]

I'm not the only one who has noticed light volume manipulation in the last half of the day...

 

[JTH]

Transports (not like the others)

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[eccougar]

Thanks JTH, transports are down over .6%. I'm still holding 50G, 20S, 20F.

 

[JTH]

Thanks JTH, transports are down over .6%. I'm still holding 50G, 20S, 20F.

No problem. For myself I'd exit the markets today if I had an extra IFT, but with 1 left, I'll stick it out.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Transports (not like the others)

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Agree. Our leader, $TRAN, is fading fast. I believe it's just a matter of time until we see a minor pullback. I really don't think we'll see more than a 5-10% dip though.

 

[JTH]

I really don't think we'll see more than a 5-10% dip though.

I'm sorta in the same boat, there are so many levels of support I'm not sure buyers won't step in before we can even get a 5% dip.

 

[nasa1974]

I have nothing to back this up and maybe someone can come up with the stats. Think about this. Everyone is getting the feeling that the market is do for a correction or at least some kind of drop. We are coming into a long weekend. Do we see some kind moderate sell off Thursday and Friday going into the long weekend? Protect mode.

 

[Birchtree]

Not the strategy to follow in an early bullish cycle - don't get caught up in the Amoeba myopic loss aversion syndrome. You saw what happened yesterday.

 

[nasa1974]

Not the strategy to follow in an early bullish cycle - don't get caught up in the Amoeba myopic loss aversion syndrome. You saw what happened yesterday.

Good or bad. It does happen because people do not want to hold over a long weekend. Add all the crazy news lately.

 

[JTH]

Good or bad. It does happen because people do not want to hold over a long weekend. Add all the crazy news lately.

Adding to this, key pivots in the markets often take place over over extended weekends...

 

[JTH]

Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.

Good morning

From my perspective we've been working through this pullback over the last 9 days, and from the previous clearly defined pullback the Transports have retraced nearly 38.2% . I do believe the S&P 500 and Wilshire 4500 do not necessarily need to pullback to the same percentile levels as the Transports, we simply need the Transports to resume their uptrend and the others should eagerly follow. As for today (and the rest of the month) if it becomes a strong down day, it means nothing to me, my position sizing strategy is in place and should serve me well.

While it is not easy to see that the S&P 500 has been pulling back, when you look at the number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average, you can see clearly it peaked nine days ago on Feb 3rd. While we do see price continued to rise, we have to take into account low volume is easy to manipulate and the S&P 500 is a weighted index so the bigger companies are able to move price around easier than the smaller ones.
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[MrJohnRoss]

Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.

Good analysis JTH. Looks like the $TRAN is trying to find some support today.

 

[amoeba]

Agree. Our leader, $TRAN, is fading fast. I believe it's just a matter of time until we see a minor pullback. I really don't think we'll see more than a 5-10% dip though.

see ya later after the dip which will follow this gift horse low volume prelongweekend profit-taking festival friday.

 

[JTH]

Good morning (thank you for the comments & likes)

I love the human element, when finely tuned into the market's nuances, a person's gut instinct can be a most valuable asset while their ego can be their greatest ruin. Point being, while I do have several systems in place, all of them could run me out of IFTs if I let them, so regardless of how many systems, I'll still need to manage each trade with my own personal judgment calls. This current market we are dealing with is not a rational market, I know it, you know it, we all know it and while we realize the numbers are manipulated, the only real crime is choosing not to participate. I tell myself "flow with the water" just as in Sun Tzu's The Art of War "Water shapes its course according to the ground over which it flows; the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing."

Last night I drew some trendlines on one of the Wilshire 4500 daily charts, showing what may turn out to be key levels of support and resistance. You can see we are approaching resistance with both a trendline, and the upper Bollinger band.
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[Dutchy]

Thanks for posting JTH... Your allocation appears very reasonabla at this point.. Who would've have believed this chart on Jan 1st? I have to believe this Market will break down soon. But I've been wrong since mid Jan.!!