JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Some random thoughts. From current levels and time, if you wanted to live through a test of the 19 Dec trendline, it will cost you 2% to see the outcome, and 4.5% from the 25 Nov trendline.

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[JTH]

Good morning

While the S&P 500 and Wilshire 4500's engines are stalling on thin air, the Transports have shown they are in fact pulling back. Check out the transports, they are fighting back today, if these levels hold, then I'm looking for the next 2-3% pop...

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[Birchtree]

I'm sure really glad that I qualify for the earned income tax credit - so many kids and so little working hours.

 

[JTH]

Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.

Interesting...

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[crommie]

Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.

Interesting...

Okay JTH, I'll bite...what is so interesting?
Wasn't the general idea that the Fed was going to make bond prices go up driving rates down so their sale today would be more successful? :suspicious: By the way, with all of the Greek news today, I never saw a bond sale new item...I wounder how that went?
Thanks HAL...ops I mean JTH.

 

[JTH]

Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.

Okay JTH, I'll bite...what is so interesting?
Wasn't the general idea that the Fed was going to make bond prices go up driving rates down so their sale today would be more successful? :suspicious: By the way, with all of the Greek news today, I never saw a bond sale new item...I wounder how that went?
Thanks HAL...ops I mean JTH.

Well, to make a long story short, 110.27 has been a key level and I wasn't expecting to close below it. Instead, I was expecting to "round" back up the circle, eventually closing the last price gap AGG created on 1 Feb. All-in-all this market (both stocks & bonds) have been uneasy yet predictable...

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[JTH]

This is a great open, confirming the pullback the transports have been working through. I'd rather take the hit early on in the morning, giving the markets a chance to recover some of what's been lost. Either ways, with a 20% allocation in the S-Fund and 10% in the F-Fund, the F-Fund will offset some of the loss.

 

[Khotso]

This is a great open, confirming the pullback the transports have been working through. I'd rather take the hit early on in the morning, giving the markets a chance to recover some of what's been lost. Either ways, with a 20% allocation in the S-Fund and 10% in the F-Fund, the F-Fund will offset some of the loss.

So JTH, are you saying you suspect the markets will climb from the gap down this morning?

 

[bmneveu]

So JTH, are you saying you suspect the markets will climb from the gap down this morning?

Sorry to interject! The last few days we've seen the market dip lower only to watch it slowly climb back over the course of the day.

 

[Khotso]

Sorry to interject! The last few days we've seen the market dip lower only to watch it slowly climb back over the course of the day.

Yeah, that's exactly why I asked bmn... Thanks! :toung: I'm also wondering whether that's what JTH expects today since he's got a lot more experience and insight than me. I'm actually hoping for a red day since I've been sitting in F since late January.

 

[bmneveu]

Yeah, that's exactly why I asked bmn... Thanks! :toung: I'm also wondering whether that's what JTH expects today since he's got a lot more experience and insight than me. I'm actually hoping for a red day since I've been sitting in F since late January.

I'm short with TZA so I would like some red as well I was considering getting into F a few days ago as a shorting play for the dip. I may be a little late now, but I do expect to see lower prices than this in the near-term.

 

[JTH]

Wasn't pleased with the bounce we got off the lows, it seems indicative of a bear flag, meaning we'll gradually float up then some catalyst will suddenly push us down further. I wouldn't take an entry just yet, I'd like to see more downside action with confirmation of a reversal before doing so.

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[Birchtree]

I did some buying this morning - wouldn't a flash melt up be precious. Just what the market could do to freak the bears - but I won't hold my breath.

 

[MaStA]

I did some buying this morning - wouldn't a flash melt up be precious. Just what the market could do to freak the bears - but I won't hold my breath.

Well when Birch starts showing signs of loss in the bull compression meter I think we all better start getting worried. Lately Birch has been stating things I am not accustomed to hearing.

I'm worried... :worried:

 

[JTH]

Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.

If we are truly to see a legitimate pullback in stocks, then I'd expect to see some form of confirmation from AGG, and IMHO we haven't seen this yet. Although we did get a small gap up this morning, it wasn't overly impressive, so I'll wait to see what happens. With one IFT left, I can afford to wait.

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[JTH]

Re: JTH Account Talk Thread.

Sorry I didn't notice this earlier, here's that beautiful channel, seeing a nice reversal off the trendline makes me a bit more optimistic.

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[Bquat]

JTH wake up!
Is this in inverse head and shoulders or is the head too thick. I'm thinking of increasing my position and want a little advice. Thought I would post here too.

 

[JTH]

JTH wake up!
Is this in inverse head and shoulders or is the head too thick. I'm thinking of increasing my position and want a little advice. Thought I would post here too.

Sorry, I wish I could be more help, it's really hard to give accurate advice on a small time frame, IMHO all bets are off within the TA world. The best thing to do is just manage the positions you have based on where your cost basis is, waiting for this next move to unfold. For myself, I'm looking for a better entry and a better exit, prices are currently in void.

 

[Bquat]

Sorry, I wish I could be more help, it's really hard to give accurate advice on a small time frame, IMHO all bets are off within the TA world. The best thing to do is just manage the positions you have based on where your cost basis is, waiting for this next move to unfold. For myself, I'm looking for a better entry and a better exit, prices are currently in void.

Thanks

 

[JTH]

Will the rising parallel price channel hold?

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