JTH's Account Talk

[MaStA]

I just keep telling myself that there must be a u turn in sight...

I don't want to bail to the G fund after these losses to miss out on an 800 point rally, but at the same time I don't want to keep losing all of my limbs. So I don't know what I should do at this point...4

Typically when I jump ship after losing a lot, I end up missing the gains and screwing myself. I told myself a couple months ago that I would not sell unless it was above what I bought for so maybe I should stick to that and stay in.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Did you bail JTH?

 

[MaStA]

Did you bail JTH?

According to the recent IFT's on the AutoTracker he did not bail unless he is late to submit the IFT.

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php

 

[malyla]

No money lost - just time.

A lot of us have goals for where we would like our ending balance at retirement to be to allows us that magical 60%-80% of salary so we can pay to live and enjoy our retirement. To reach that goal, a constant growth is required. If that growth is zero, then that year of zero growth did not contribute to reaching the final growth and you either get more aggressive, hope the market is like the 2003-2007 where 20% B&H growth was the norm, wait another year working to reach your goal, or retire with a lower payment.

Buy and Holders (B&H) went to zero growth over the last 10 years of the market. If you moved to safety in 2008, then you saved yourself time to retirement as you didn't go to zero growth. I lost all my profits in the 2001-2003 recession as I was a buy and holder. Looking at my retirement growth curve during that time had my balance decrease down to the contribution balance which said that I could have hid my money under a mattress (assuming the gov gave me the matching contributions) and been even. Maybe I had more shares for the 2003-2007 ride up (as I bought those shares as a B&H from 1990-2001) than I would have if I had just purchased them in 2003, but if I had been a swing trader back then and sold in 2001 to rebuy in 2003, I would be ahead on the growth curve instead of where I am now due to being a B&H. I lost time being a Buy & Holder. Swing trading does take time, but time spent now saves me time in meeting my retirement goal.

The weakness I see with DCA is that you have to be lucky to retire when the market is at the height to take full advantage of DCAing. If you are unlucky enough to retire when the market has a reset to decadal lows, then you have made no profits at best and lost some savings at worst. That was why I looked into the business cycle TA to see where the business cycle was predicted to be in 2020 to 2025. That wasn't giving me a warm fuzzy feeling so I changed to a trend/swing trading TA system and have heavily relied on the members of this board to learn how to do this type of trading to build my nest egg. My goal is to avoid loss, for loss takes 1.5% more time to recoop than no loss. Once again, it's a loss of time to your goal (10% growth curve for me).

Helps?

There another problem with DCAing our TSP balance that everyone just ignores. It only works to accumulate shares if you never sell those shares. The moment you make an IFT, those shares in whatever fund you have are sold at that COB price and new shares are purchased in whatever fund you requested at those same COB prices. This resets the shares to the current price and you gain and lose depending on what price you originally bought those DCA'd shares at. If you bought at the bottom and sold at the top, hurrah, but if you bought all the way down and sold at the bottom, then you lost money at the time you made your latest IFT. So DCAing is at it's best only when you become a buy and holder at the bottom of a market low and ride it up to a market high. If you continue to be a pure B&H'er, then you risk riding and buying down the next market deflation. It's like buying a ticket on a roller coaster. You committed to staying for the whole ride, as a B&H, with all it's ups and downs and if you are lucky with the timing, you retire on a high market swing and rack in the retirement money. Alternately, if you want to retire but the market is at a low, you wait and retire later when the market swings up again. Time is a non-renewable resource.

I prefer a ride where I miss the water falls (canoeing/kayaking) by carrying my fund around them and getting back in the water for the gentler movements of the market (metaphor doesn't work that well as water still moves downhill and I'm looking for the uphill climb of the market, but you get my drift - miss the falls).

Not even Birchtree is a pure B&H. He does IFT at times (at least from his thread over the years) which locks in gains and losses of whatever DCAing was performed. Just some food for thought.

 

[PEP]

There another problem with DCAing our TSP balance that everyone just ignores. It only works to accumulate shares if you never sell those shares. The moment you make an IFT, those shares in whatever fund you have are sold at that COB price and new shares are purchased in whatever fund you requested at those same COB prices. This resets the shares to the current price and you gain and lose depending on what price you originally bought those DCA'd shares at. If you bought at the bottom and sold at the top, hurrah, but if you bought all the way down and sold at the bottom, then you lost money at the time you made your latest IFT. So DCAing is at it's best only when you become a buy and holder at the bottom of a market low and ride it up to a market high. If you continue to be a pure B&H'er, then you risk riding and buying down the next market deflation. It's like buying a ticket on a roller coaster. You committed to staying for the whole ride, as a B&H, with all it's ups and downs and if you are lucky with the timing, you retire on a high market swing and rack in the retirement money. Alternately, if you want to retire but the market is at a low, you wait and retire later when the market swings up again. Time is a non-renewable resource.

I prefer a ride where I miss the water falls (canoeing/kayaking) by carrying my fund around them and getting back in the water for the gentler movements of the market (metaphor doesn't work that well as water still moves downhill and I'm looking for the uphill climb of the market, but you get my drift - miss the falls).

Not even Birchtree is a pure B&H. He does IFT at times (at least from his thread over the years) which locks in gains and losses of whatever DCAing was performed. Just some food for thought.

Thanks for expanding my knowledge!

 

[Lobo]

There another problem with DCAing our TSP balance that everyone just ignores. It only works to accumulate shares if you never sell those shares. The moment you make an IFT, those shares in whatever fund you have are sold at that COB price and new shares are purchased in whatever fund you requested at those same COB prices. This resets the shares to the current price and you gain and lose depending on what price you originally bought those DCA'd shares at. If you bought at the bottom and sold at the top, hurrah, but if you bought all the way down and sold at the bottom, then you lost money at the time you made your latest IFT. So DCAing is at it's best only when you become a buy and holder at the bottom of a market low and ride it up to a market high. If you continue to be a pure B&H'er, then you risk riding and buying down the next market deflation. It's like buying a ticket on a roller coaster. You committed to staying for the whole ride, as a B&H, with all it's ups and downs and if you are lucky with the timing, you retire on a high market swing and rack in the retirement money. Alternately, if you want to retire but the market is at a low, you wait and retire later when the market swings up again. Time is a non-renewable resource.

I prefer a ride where I miss the water falls (canoeing/kayaking) by carrying my fund around them and getting back in the water for the gentler movements of the market (metaphor doesn't work that well as water still moves downhill and I'm looking for the uphill climb of the market, but you get my drift - miss the falls).

Not even Birchtree is a pure B&H. He does IFT at times (at least from his thread over the years) which locks in gains and losses of whatever DCAing was performed. Just some food for thought.

Good clear thinking. I've never really been a B&H 'er....even when (which is still now) I didn't really know what I was doing. I "missed" 2008. I was one of the lucky ones who barely gained something in 2008....and retired right after that! +3% ain't much...but, it sure as heck beats a -40% or more! Cash preservation should always be a part of the plan. Do we "hang on" forever....losing our shirts....hoping we'll be in for "the big day up"? Miss most of the down, if you can, and catch some of the up....don't be greedy. Greedy was the worst thing I ever did in working with my TSP. Still difficult to hold down greediness. Not a nice word. But, have a nice day, and good luck to us all!!

Lobo

 

[JTH]

Thanks Bquat, I need that.

In studies I've done of the Simple Moving Average, the 493rd SMA is the most profitable, I round it out to the 500SMA (the difference being the holidays.) Based on today's current price action we will close below this average, that's what I consider to be a strong Bear Market Signal.

Take the 500SMA, divide it by 5 you get 100. Take the Daily chart and convert it to a weekly chart and the Daily 500SMA = the Weekly 100SMA.
Take note of the key levels of resistance and support this SMA has provided to the markets. We need to close above 1177 this week.

View attachment 14888

 

[Lobo]

I'm sorry JTH that this thing caught you. I've been watching you and appreciate all your input. You were doing so well, and will again. Just wish we could back it up a few days and all the folks that jumped in for this incredibly bad run could be out. But, it is what it is, and you WILL come back.

Lobo

 

[JTH]

I'm sorry JTH that this thing caught you. I've been watching you and appreciate all your input. You were doing so well, and will again. Just wish we could back it up a few days and all the folks that jumped in for this incredibly bad run could be out. But, it is what it is, and you WILL come back.

Lobo

Thx, this is a black Monday...

 

[clester]

Deja vu 2008 which I rode down for most of the time. Damn those politicians.

 

[JTH]

Posted a short blog http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/entry.php?1366-What-to-do-if-you-ve-taken-the-hit!

 

[JTH]

Law87 we are at support right now it's a 50% retracement from the 2007 top to 2009 bottom after that it's 1015.

View attachment 14902

 

[JTH]

After going over the charts last night, I'm prepared to exit if/when we break below 1100. At which point in time I'll jump back in once I've re-gained an edge. When I last went into the S-Fund I had a 7.4% edge it's now been reduced down to 5.4% percentages are funny like that.

 

[Bquat]

JTH, I think maybe this is a dead cat bounce unless we break the 1157 to 1150 area. What do you think?

 

[JTH]

JTH, I think maybe this is a dead cat bounce unless we break the 1157 to 1150 area. What do you think?

I wouldn't call this a dead cat bounce, such a term should be used for the entire wave. A 50% bounce off the 7 July peak from the bottom would be a true dead cat bounce. First thing is to recapture the previous candlestick, I'm not prepared to make any predictions, but I would like to see the last hour of trading for a clue.

 

[Bquat]

I wouldn't call this a dead cat bounce, such a term should be used for the entire wave. A 50% bounce off the 7 July peak from the bottom would be a true dead cat bounce. First thing is to recapture the previous candlestick, I'm not prepared to make any predictions, but I would like to see the last hour of trading for a clue.

I would like to be able to watch the last hour before my decision time but I can't. But I'm still leaning toward waiting another day because 1150 is holding as resistance. So we watch.

 

[Dutchy]

After going over the charts last night, I'm prepared to exit if/when we break below 1100. At which point in time I'll jump back in once I've re-gained an edge. When I last went into the S-Fund I had a 7.4% edge it's now been reduced down to 5.4% percentages are funny like that.

JTH, Just to be clear. 1100 would be your bottom for a stop loss and bail to G Fund?? What would be your top range 1175-1200? to lock in gains?? Thanks.

 

[Birchtree]

JTH, you are so close to me on the tracker that I can smell your phermones. If you get out - woosh and I'm gone. The top cats in the top 100 will not be there for long. This race is now getting interesting - I feel more like Smarty Jones coming from behind.

 

[twohorsefarm]

Is any one else having problems with TSP wed sight would have been out today if I could have logged in.

I wouldn't call this a dead cat bounce, such a term should be used for the entire wave. A 50% bounce off the 7 July peak from the bottom would be a true dead cat bounce. First thing is to recapture the previous candlestick, I'm not prepared to make any predictions, but I would like to see the last hour of trading for a clue.

 

[Bquat]

JTH, you are so close to me on the tracker that I can smell your phermones. If you get out - woosh and I'm gone. The top cats in the top 100 will not be there for long. This race is now getting interesting - I feel more like Smarty Jones coming from behind.

Thanks Birch, I'm a top cat buy default. You guys visit as you pass me, OK.