JTH's Account Talk

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KevinD said:
DCA...
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I do agree, but it seems like you are adding shares to a losing position.

At this point, I would love to have some money to put in the market to offset my losses on what I hope to be a rise in the markets through the end of the year. It only took a week to move me from a trader to an investor... didn't see that coming :(
 
Wouldn't you like to own some C fund shares at a cost of $7.86, some S fund shares at $9.06, and some I fund shares at $10.29? Those were the March '09 lows. If you had been dollar cost averaging bi-weekly you made out like a bandit. You would be buying all the way down and all the way back up. Many TSPers did just that because they had courage and faith in America. You should always be dollar cost averaging on auto-pilot. Slow money is the best money. Besides, it's the number of shares you own that will set you free and pad that retirement.
 
Birchtree said:
Wouldn't you like to own some C fund shares at a cost of $7.86, some S fund shares at $9.06, and some I fund shares at $10.29? Those were the March '09 lows. If you had been dollar cost averaging bi-weekly you made out like a bandit. You would be buying all the way down and all the way back up. Many TSPers did just that because they had courage and faith in America. You should always be dollar cost averaging on auto-pilot. Slow money is the best money. Besides, it's the number of shares you own that will set you free and pad that retirement.
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I agree, but since all my contributions go in at the first of the month... DCA works when the market is low, not just before it drops (this last June and now August). :D
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Why would you do this until the bottom is reached and confirmed?
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We have no way of knowing when the bottom will be reached, only time and price can make that determination. If you've already taken a big hit and don't plan to lock the lose, then a good way out is to lower the cost per share. This way when you get back to the same levels as before your lose, you have more money than before.

The ones who took the biggest hit in 2008 were those who got out after a big loss, than waited too long to get back in. Meanwhile those who stayed in and accumulated more shares actually recovered faster than those who attempted to time the market. Buy & Hold (DCA) requires discipline, it's scary but if it's applied correctly it is an excellent strategy.
 
A reason to look for a bounce is the RSI indicator. The last Time it was at 20 was at the 2008 lows. But in a time like this I would wait for for a new trend to get back in. If your in, you may get a bounce soon.
 
JTH,

If one managed to be on the sidelines for the ride down would it make sense to jump back in at your best guess for the bottom and just hold, however long it took, for the market to get back to even? In your opinion.

JTH said:
We have no way of knowing when the bottom will be reached, only time and price can make that determination. If you've already taken a big hit and don't plan to lock the lose, then a good way out is to lower the cost per share. This way when you get back to the same levels as before your lose, you have more money than before.

The ones who took the biggest hit in 2008 were those who got out after a big loss, than waited too long to get back in. Meanwhile those who stayed in and accumulated more shares actually recovered faster than those who attempted to time the market. Buy & Hold (DCA) requires discipline, it's scary but if it's applied correctly it is an excellent strategy.
Click to expand...
 
pmcint01 said:
JTH,

If one managed to be on the sidelines for the ride down would it make sense to jump back in at your best guess for the bottom and just hold, however long it took, for the market to get back to even? In your opinion.
Click to expand...

Thats what I did, now its a matter of testicular fortitude.
 
pmcint01 said:
JTH,

If one managed to be on the sidelines for the ride down would it make sense to jump back in at your best guess for the bottom and just hold, however long it took, for the market to get back to even? In your opinion.
Click to expand...

If you've avoided this downslide, I'd stay out until an uptrend was established. We could go so much lower that you'd get better prices, so I believe it's worth the wait.
 
This is just plain stupid, it's like every day is a market crash, how many times can you wreck a train before it gets derailed?
 
Do you see that all sectors are flat or neg? There is a lot a cash being called.
I wonder- Is this a manufactured margin call sell-off to trap the speculators?
The Nasdaq is getting hammered.

Looks like I'll be riding this one out. Too late for jumping at this speed.

This is the type of summer action by the youngsters that the "Sell in May and stay away" crowd
uses to compile all those nice statistics. ;)
 
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JTH said:
Putting things into context, this isn't a one year race, this is a lifetime marathon. If you've taken a big hit and plan to stay in, then I'd encourage you to increase your contributions, lowering your cost basis per share. This isn't as bad as it looks, it's ok to cry or shake your fist in anger, so long as you trade with your head, not your heart...

View attachment 14839
Click to expand...

I doubled my contribution starting with today's and moved my contributions to C, I, and S. I honestly didn't see this downturn happening but I may have got lucky. We'll see how much further down this goes though...
 
Can you smell it - the rally has kicked in with bull manure being used as rocket fuel. Go green with bull methane. The VIX topped at 39.08 +7.42 and is now selling off - could be the turn.
 
I didn't get in on Monday, thank god. For us that have stayed out do you guys feel the F fund would be a better place or the G fund.
 
New to the forum but have been a reader for years. Love the technical info and all the talk. I was able to avoid most of the down turn on yesterday and today. Does anyone know a better ETF ticker to track the S fund? Would love to see longer chart patterns.
 
Taller: Yes, if you are going for more of a down turn in this market. Chart pattern is at a top on a few year pattern. On the 2000 down turn it was the place to be. On expert just an opinion
 
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