JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

I don't know who John Roque is, but I read this article and it made me feel a little better that someone that knows what they are talking about seems to think things are going to be going up soon...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44038676

Long-term perspectives are a good way to keep from getting hyper-focused on the short-term drama. This is precisely why I like to look at the long-term 6-month charts. It may take 3-6 months to recover prices. I suppose I should have protected myself, but I've seen too many sucker bounces, I have a 6.33% edge on the S-Fund and I'd like to not lose that edge.

 

[FAB1]

Long-term perspectives are a good way to keep from getting hyper-focused on the short-term drama. This is precisely why I like to look at the long-term 6-month charts. It may take 3-6 months to recover prices. I suppose I should have protected myself, but I've seen too many sucker bounces, I have a 6.33% edge on the S-Fund and I'd like to not lose that edge.

The fear in the air is so thick you can cut it with a knife - But at this point I somehow feel at peace, I dont know which way the short-term is going but I know I will recover my losses if I dont give in to fear.

So I say Happy Days are Here Again...Ive got my eye on a new solidbody electric guitar and going to for a test drive today - may spend a couple of thou to help boost the ecomony. Rock ON!

 

[SteelSaving]

Details please, Fab...

 

[Happy_Trails]

The fear in the air is so thick you can cut it with a knife - But at this point I somehow feel at peace, I dont know which way the short-term is going but I know I will recover my losses if I dont give in to fear.

So I say Happy Days are Here Again...Ive got my eye on a new solidbody electric guitar and going to for a test drive today - may spend a couple of thou to help boost the ecomony. Rock ON!

Awesome way to look at things Fab. I think I will break out my Tele today or maybe the D18. Have fun.

 

[Nate]

- Not trying to hijack your thread JTH, question for birch but hoping for all opinions.
Why not "I" fund? I see they both have room to grow, but theres a big green "buy" in the I fund for YTD (and oversold RSI)...indicating "smart money" is buying it up, right? With our rating being downgraded, shouldnt world money move up on us a bit?
We all know by now im no economist, just asking questions to learn.


Ive been sitting F fund for months trying to dig out of a -2.5% hole. Undecided what move to make now....

 

[Birchtree]

I'm holding my I fund position until I get $22.50 a share and then I'll move 10% into the C fund. I only want to be in large caps in my tugboat (TSP).

 

[JTH]

"gone fishing"

 

[Bquat]

"gone fishing"

Ok my friend, take today off. Relax and clear your head and get yourself back in the right place. Beginning tomorrow I need you back in the game. This last couple of drops got everyone suprised. We need you because because in the long term your analysis is spot on and this is just one defeat in our life long battle against the market. So some time soon the correction will be over and the bad news will subside and we'll begin again. When you have seen the worst of the news all we can do is look up.

So today off and tomorrow start charting and see if we can fight this market.

 

[JTH]

Thanks Bquat, I need that.

In studies I've done of the Simple Moving Average, the 493rd SMA is the most profitable, I round it out to the 500SMA. Based on today's current price action we will close below this average, that's what I consider to be a strong Bear Market Signal.

View attachment 14883



In Dec 2010 I made my projections for 2011, most of the levels I identified are of and have been of significant importance. If 1171 breaks I will not ride this train down to 1100.

View attachment 14884

 

[clester]

Looks like 1050 range is next support.

 

[Bquat]

Looks like 1050 range is next support.

Me, I'm guessing 1145 and Live with Oscar was showing this also, buy he's using maybe more as of late after his bad cup and handle call.

 

[weatherweenie]

Me, I'm guessing 1145 and Live with Oscar was showing this also, buy he's using maybe more as of late after his bad cup and handle call.

The fact that the 'experts' on both TV and radio were caught completely off guard gives pause for concern. While I want to believe 1145 is the bottom, the market is going to have to show us that's the case. Otherwise, we're just shooting in the dark.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Thanks Bquat, I need that.

In studies I've done of the Simple Moving Average, the 493rd SMA is the most profitable, I round it out to the 500SMA. Based on today's current price action we will close below this average, that's what I consider to be a strong Bear Market Signal.

View attachment 14883



In Dec 2010 I made my projections for 2011, most of the levels I identified are of and have been of significant importance. If 1171 breaks I will not ride this train down to 1100.

View attachment 14884

S&P is below 1170 now, does that mean you're bailing today or are you talking about s&P below 1170 at close?

 

[JTH]

Sorry folks, I've failed to manage this position, some might say I've lost too much, I say I've made more than most so had more to lose. And so the story goes those who climb the highest hit the ground the hardest when they fall. There is a high probability I'll make an exit today, with another IFT I can still come back in if I so choose. At the very least I can attempt to gain more shares. All distasters bring with it a glimmer of opportunity.

 

[Birchtree]

Stick it out - don't let nonsense rule.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Stick it out - don't let nonsense rule.

I agree, I just don't think we'll fall much further, barring some disasterous news.

 

[malyla]

Sorry folks, I've failed to manage this position, some might say I've lost too much, I say I've made more than most so had more to lose. And so the story goes those who climb the highest hit the ground the hardest when they fall. There is a high probability I'll make an exit today, with another IFT I can still come back in if I so choose. At the very least I can attempt to gain more shares. All distasters bring with it a glimmer of opportunity.

Not to muddy the waters.... If we close above 1168 today, I will start looking for an entrance in the next day or two. The trick is to close above 1168 (long tail from Friday). However, Uptread's analysis has me worried that this is the fifth wave and not the third as some have stated. I'll need a few more indications to be sure, but closing above 1168 is the first.

 

[PEP]

Just wondering, and I am no expert on stocks, I barely know how to look up quotes. If you have at least 10 - 15 years before retirement, wouldnt it be better to just stick it out until the share price is at least back to when you jumped in? Still buying shares while theyre low right now? I know it will take awhile for that to happen but at least no money would have been lost.

 

[Birchtree]

You've discovered the beauty of dollar cost averaging - so let prices fall and accumulate the shares of your choice.

 

[malyla]

Just wondering, and I am no expert on stocks, I barely know how to look up quotes. If you have at least 10 - 15 years before retirement, wouldnt it be better to just stick it out until the share price is at least back to when you jumped in? Still buying shares while theyre low right now? I know it will take awhile for that to happen but at least no money would have been lost.

No money lost - just time.

A lot of us have goals for where we would like our ending balance at retirement to be to allows us that magical 60%-80% of salary so we can pay to live and enjoy our retirement. To reach that goal, a constant growth is required. If that growth is zero, then that year of zero growth did not contribute to reaching the final growth and you either get more aggressive, hope the market is like the 2003-2007 where 20% B&H growth was the norm, wait another year working to reach your goal, or retire with a lower payment.

Buy and Holders (B&H) went to zero growth over the last 10 years of the market. If you moved to safety in 2008, then you saved yourself time to retirement as you didn't go to zero growth. I lost all my profits in the 2001-2003 recession as I was a buy and holder. Looking at my retirement growth curve during that time had my balance decrease down to the contribution balance which said that I could have hid my money under a mattress (assuming the gov gave me the matching contributions) and been even. Maybe I had more shares for the 2003-2007 ride up (as I bought those shares as a B&H from 1990-2001) than I would have if I had just purchased them in 2003, but if I had been a swing trader back then and sold in 2001 to rebuy in 2003, I would be ahead on the growth curve instead of where I am now due to being a B&H. I lost time being a Buy & Holder. Swing trading does take time, but time spent now saves me time in meeting my retirement goal.

The weakness I see with DCA is that you have to be lucky to retire when the market is at the height to take full advantage of DCAing. If you are unlucky enough to retire when the market has a reset to decadal lows, then you have made no profits at best and lost some savings at worst. That was why I looked into the business cycle TA to see where the business cycle was predicted to be in 2020 to 2025. That wasn't giving me a warm fuzzy feeling so I changed to a trend/swing trading TA system and have heavily relied on the members of this board to learn how to do this type of trading to build my nest egg. My goal is to avoid loss, for loss takes 1.5% more time to recoop than no loss. Once again, it's a loss of time to your goal (10% growth curve for me).

Helps?