2011 Personal Performance Report
YTD Stats: Updated 9 Jun, 38% of days in stocks, 62% days in G-Fund. Of days invested 70% positive, 30% negative. Average daily gain .12%
MTD Stats: Jan .15% -- Feb 4.71% -- Mar 3.49% -- Apr 3.40% -- May .65%
9 Jun: IFT 100% S-Fund. I feel this is the most important entry of the year, if it goes sour a whole lotta folks are going to incur some damage. If it goes North and I escape with a gain, then I'll look like a hero (or at least I'll feel like one.) From a technical perspective I feel this is one the soundest decision I've made this year in regardless to the attempt to pick the bottom. My systems are in alignment with each other, they all agree this is where the entry should be. When I got home, my confidence was somewhat shaken as the youtubers seemed deceivingly bearish, more so than I thought they should be. I have to remember, we don't trade in the same timeframe nor with the same rules. I've entered the S-Fund with a 9.57% edge, the largest edge entering stocks this year. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I have a high probability of making an exit in the next 3-7 days, possibly using my last IFT to enter the F-Fund.
31 May EOM: Finished out the month with .65% not bad for a 1-day play within what turned out to be a terrible month, although you wouldn't think it was due to the strong finish. Looking back I'd rather had made a final exit to the F-Fund instead of the G-Fund. As of 3 Jun price is escalating to the downside, making an entry a bit too risky, but perhaps we'll find a good entry before the month is over.
6 May: I don't mind being a scalper...My first double-tap back to back IFT since the old days of unlimited moves. Something I want folks to understand is when my YTD gains are at these levels, I see no reason to take additional risk (exposure) in the markets. I was not fully committed to making an exit, but when I saw how weak the good news pop was, I wasn't impressed. I was looking for a 2% intraday peak, when we didn't get it, I felt I should attempt to exit with a 1% gain. The plan in my head was executed exactly as I saw it should go, but I will admit that a .42% gain did not meet my expectations.
5 May: Currently #8 on the tracker with 12.27% YTD. The last time I was number 8 on the tracker was 28 March at 8.51%. Today's market action looked favorable going into the 12pm IFT deadline. The latter half of the day put us back in the red, but the good news is the transports managed to hold onto most of it's gains. For most of the indexes this has been a 4 day decline off a 52 week high. Thus far the pullback has been measured, but gaining momentum, either ways we'll have to see how this plays out. For myself, I have high potential of making a hasty exit if I believe I can lock in gains of over 1%
28 Apr EOM: Entered G-Fund, with a 100% allocation. 12 days in the market, with 9 in the green. I'd call 75% up days a great bull trend to ride. My entry was timed 1 day too early, the very next day after my IFT I lost -1.48% it was a tough pill to swallow, but I stuck it out and it turned out for the better, ending the month over 3%. Oh by the way, that partial 25% S-Fund allocation taken on the prior IFT was a complete and utter waste of time.
15 Apr: Entered S-Fund, this time with a 100% allocation. My previous 25% IFT 4-day entry netted me a whopping .07% so I basically took the same entry level with a higher allocation. I did not get the sub 686 target I wanted (key word wanted.) I was not completely happy with this setup, but sometimes happiness and timing don't go hand in hand together. I took on some additional risk on this last trade, we'll see how it plays out.
11 Apr: Entered S-Fund, this time with a 25% allocation. I've spent some time thinking about how I wanted to play this month out. I'd like to finish the month fully invested, but don't want to be fully invested for the remainder of this month just yet. This was the best compromise given the circumstances I have to work with. There are 3 things, of which any 1 of those can get me fully invested. With 25% in, I can afford to absorb some pain, or partially enjoy a bounce. From there, a good entry with the remaining 75% can play well, if well played.
31 Mar EOM: Ending the month with a 3.49% gain ending the month in the G-Fund. We have a double-top breakout on the leaders, the Transports & the W4500. My entry into stocks was 2 days too early, my exit was (and still is) too early. All in all it was still a very good month and all my goals were met, patience was well rewarded. My expectations for next month are uncertain.
25 Mar: Entered G-Fund. Ended up staying in S-Fund position a bit too long, but adding a little patience worked out. 2.82% over 9 trading days. Needed a mental break, watching the markets as intensely as I do, takes it's toll.
15 Mar: Entered S-Fund. Earth Quake devastates Japan, but watching the news over the weekend I'm optimistic the people of Japan (more so than other peoples) can overcome these tragedies. The ability of the markets to hold ground under these strained Middle Eastern & Japan conditions is nothing short of amazing. As I write this, Futures are down hard, so be it, I can't be right on everything all the time, but I can avoid being wrong for too long. Off the last major wave shown in the chart, if we retrace more than 50% (1258.85) for more than 3 days, I will be forced to consider an exit.
3 March: Entered G-Fund. The night before I had decided to make an exit, only if I thought I could escape with more than 1.37% This would (at a minimum) afford me the opportunity to outperform the G-Fund for the month should I decide to stay out of stocks for the remainder of March. It was a calculated risk that paid off and I'm happy with the outcome, having made .67% more than my lowest expectation. A 5 day investment in the S-Fund yielded a 3.04% gain.
28 Feb EOM: Ended the month with a 4.71% gain, remaining 100% S-Fund. Bonds are tracking with stocks (who will blink first), I'll be looking to make a minimum level before making an exit. My personal belief is the downtrend has already began, only a double-top breakout will change my mind.
24 Feb: Entered S-Fund. I had sat on the sidelines for 13 days, prices pulled back over 3% so I felt like I was jumping in at a slightly discounted price. Just managed to get in a lower price than my last exit.
4 Feb: Entered G-Fund. Started the month out invested 100% S-Fund. After making a 4-day 2.13% gain I headed to the sidelines to rest out the oil-based news and wait for another buying opportunity.
31 Jan EOM: I managed to end the month with a slight profit at .15% not even enough to outpace the G-Fund or inflation
Today's bounce gives me concerns going into February, the bounce was very weak on the transports and weak across the S&P 500 & Wilshire 4500. The good news (if you can call it that) is I managed to meet my goal of starting the month invested...
26 Jan: Entered S-Fund. I didn't really want to enter the markets at this level, but I felt the pullback had already occurred and since the trend is up I felt perhaps we were ready for another breakout. This time I was 2 days early, as the Egypt crisis began to emerge. My first day in the S-fund I gained .41% and on the second day I lost -2.15%
11 Jan: Entered G with 1.01% At the time I made this decision both C & S had been down 4 of 5 days, and the dollar have been down 5 of 6. I felt the I fund had taken a downturn and I didn't want to get dragged down into the red. Turns out my decision was 1 day too early, although I escaped with a .43% gain that day, I missed out on a 1.15% gain the next day. I ended up sitting in the G-Fund for the next 10 trading days.
1 Jan: Started out from 2010 with a 1G, 26C, 52S, 21I allocation. I had reservations about this allocation because I felt it was a mistake to split my resources across multiple funds. The reason behind my thinking? How certain can you be about a position if you're so inclined to spread your risk? If you take a position you should have proof this is the best position you can take, and by spreading your risk you're showing you have doubt about the position you're taking.
