JTH's Account Talk

[mayday]

Great timing on your trades this month Jason.

 

[Gumby]

Well in the grand scheme of things going sideways is hella better than backwards. We're in the Top 50, that's very respectable and there's just over 3% difference between #1 & #50 so it can change real fast. I should know, in Jan 2010 I was #1 week one and in the bottom 50 by week 4



Thanks Gumby it's going to get tricky from here. From my perspective I've met 70% of my 12% YTD minimum goal. Furthermore, I'm not above thinking this market has hit it's top for the year, we have just 5 weeks till May, where we get out final answer. I see you're in the G-Fund at spot #36, that's a good spot to be. If we get a pullback from here you'll be thrust into the top 20.

I agree... I look for some volitility in the next few months. It has been a good year so far. I would be happy with 10% for the year... a little more wouldn't hurt.
With the POMO operation/manipulation winding down... I don't know what will happen. The technicals in the market look good now and it was one of the reasons I took the contrarian view and went to G for the last week of the month. 6 up days out of 7 was a little beyond believable.
It would be nice if we had a couple of bear funds for TSP.
It would be nice to stay in the top 50 for the year...Good luck

 

[crws]

Good work, man. Your new system looks like a winner for this type of year.
Could be one that needs active participation, unlike the majority of the previous one.

 

[JTH]

Thanks for dropping in everyone, I'm looking forward to planning our entries for next month! F-Fund was flat today, following 7 down days, with above average negative volume on AGG over the last 3 days, I'd think we are getting close to consolidation. I have no plans for playing the F-Fund, but that doesn't mean it won't be a viable option over stocks. What do you'll think?

View attachment 10841

 

[vegasmith]

I think the good US economic reports (earnings, consumer spending) will continue to keep the F fund down in the long term. Short term F fund moves, anticipating dips, are viable but perhaps not worth the hassle. My own 2011 tracker is an example that: one F-fund move I timed right and bought the dip. This last one I missed the +2% day.

 

[crws]

Thanks for dropping in everyone, I'm looking forward to planning our entries for next month! F-Fund was flat today, following 7 down days, with above average negative volume on AGG over the last 3 days, I'd think we are getting close to consolidation. I have no plans for playing the F-Fund, but that doesn't mean it won't be a viable option over stocks. What do you'll think?

View attachment 10841

In anticipation of the end of QE2, and if QE3 is not in the cards, i.e. given PIMCO's hint that a reentry to the US Bond market will be when they can get a better rate-
I suppose you could speculate (maybe too strong a term, perhaps "theorize") that ST bonds would get a boost as the recovery is weighed vs. realistic equity valuations heading into the weaning days of abundant liquidity.

 

[JTH]

Some thoughts to ponder, both short-term & long-term.

Dusting off an old favorite, we have the number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average. The good news is there is room to the upside before hitting the red-line resistance. The bad news is the red-line is declining showing weaker tops.

View attachment 10847

 

[JTH]

Thus far my exit from the S-Fund 3 days ago has cost me 1.74%. As a result, there will be a new crop of winner's emerging on the tracker, and I will be discarded like an old newspaper used to keep the bird cage clean. Tomorrow will be the last day of the month & 1st quarter. Mr. Market appears to favor a winner "duh"

I present to you the Transports, leader of many follower of few. So go the transports, so go the markets... Today she broke higher ground, therefore a new green trendline has emerged and all other trendlines are erased.
View attachment 10850

 

[crws]

and I will be discarded like an old newspaper used to keep the bird cage clean.

Sounds like personal experience.....
-I'm sorry

Hey- you could look at it from the perspective that you kept that 1.74% too, when the whipsaw comes sailing through the woods!

 

[JTH]

Sounds like personal experience.....
-I'm sorry

Hey- you could look at it from the perspective that you kept that 1.74% too, when the whipsaw comes sailing through the woods!

I'm low-balling...

 

[JTH]

2011 Personal Performance Report

1 Jan: Started out from 2010 with a 1G, 26C, 52S, 21I allocation. I had reservations about this allocation because I felt it was a mistake to split my resources across multiple funds. The reason behind my thinking? How certain can you be about a position if you're so inclined to spread your risk? If you take a position you should have proof this is the best position you can take, and by spreading your risk you're showing you have doubt about the position you're taking.

11 Jan: Entered G with 1.01% At the time I made this decision both C & S had been down 4 of 5 days, and the dollar have been down 5 of 6. I felt the I fund had taken a downturn and I didn't want to get dragged down into the red. Turns out my decision was 1 day too early, although I escaped with a .43% gain that day, I missed out on a 1.15% gain the next day. I ended up sitting in the G-Fund for the next 10 trading days.

26 Jan: Entered S-Fund. I didn't really want to enter the markets at this level, but I felt the pullback had already occurred and since the trend is up I felt perhaps we were ready for another breakout. This time I was 2 days early, as the Egypt crisis began to emerge. My first day in the S-fund I gained .41% and on the second day I lost -2.15%

31 Jan EOM: I managed to end the month with a slight profit at .15% not even enough to outpace the G-Fund or inflation Today's bounce gives me concerns going into February, the bounce was very weak on the transports and weak across the S&P 500 & Wilshire 4500. The good news (if you can call it that) is I managed to meet my goal of starting the month invested...

4 Feb: Entered G-Fund. Started the month out invested 100% S-Fund. After making a 4-day 2.13% gain I headed to the sidelines to rest out the oil-based news and wait for another buying opportunity.

24 Feb: Entered S-Fund. I had sat on the sidelines for 13 days, prices pulled back over 3% so I felt like I was jumping in at a slightly discounted price. Just managed to get in a lower price than my last exit.

28 Feb: Ended the month with a 4.71% gain, remaining 100% S-Fund. Bonds are tracking with stocks (who will blink first), I'll be looking to make a minimum level before making an exit. My personal belief is the downtrend has already began, only a double-top breakout will change my mind.

3 March: Entered G-Fund. The night before I had decided to make an exit, only if I thought I could escape with more than 1.37% This would (at a minimum) afford me the opportunity to outperform the G-Fund for the month should I decide to stay out of stocks for the remainder of March. It was a calculated risk that paid off and I'm happy with the outcome, having made .67% more than my lowest expectation. A 5 day investment in the S-Fund yielded a 3.04% gain.

15 Mar: Entered S-Fund. Earth Quake devastates Japan, but watching the news over the weekend I'm optimistic the people of Japan (more so than other peoples) can overcome these tragedies. The ability of the markets to hold ground under these strained Middle Eastern & Japan conditions is nothing short of amazing. As I write this, Futures are down hard, so be it, I can't be right on everything all the time, but I can avoid being wrong for too long. Off the last major wave shown in the chart, if we retrace more than 50% (1258.85) for more than 3 days, I will be forced to consider an exit.

25 Mar: Entered G-Fund. Ended up staying in S-Fund position a bit too long, but adding a little patience worked out. 2.82% over 9 trading days. Needed a mental break, watching the markets as intensely as I do, takes it's toll.

31 Mar: Ending the month with a 3.49% gain ending the month in the G-Fund. We have a double-top breakout on the leaders, the Transports & the W4500. My entry into stocks was 2 days too early, my exit was (and still is) too early. All in all it was still a very good month and all my goals were met, patience was well rewarded. My expectations for next month are uncertain.

MTD Stats: Jan .15% -- Feb 4.71% -- Mar 3.49%

YTD Stats: Updated 31 March, 28 days Invested 34 days sidelined, of days invested, 68% positive, 32% negative. Average daily gain .137%

 

[JTH]

Fair warning, anyone think we'll break out of this channel?

View attachment 10868

 

[tsptalk]

Fair warning, anyone think we'll break out of this channel?

Up 9 of last 11 days with sentiment over 2 to 1 bulls??? Probably.

I sold on Friday but wouldn't bet against this market for too long. I'm looking for a 2 to 3 day pullback before buying again.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Up 9 of last 11 days with sentiment over 2 to 1 bulls??? Probably.

I sold on Friday but wouldn't bet against this market for too long. I'm looking for a 2 to 3 day pullback before buying again.

- this sounds about right, Tom. Everything from a contrarian perspecitive seems to say sell but it will probably go higher.

 

[TSPIntel]

I am also playing safe than sorry.

 

[JTH]

This is my thread, I'm starting and stopping a discussion with this single post. I say that so some of you don't whore-up my thread with your useless drivel.

I realize most of us don't care for the various politically slanted messages posted by James the moderator. Myself included, let's focus on the topic, and not the messenger. James is the minority, and as such we should foster a relationship of love, understanding, and acceptance, where we can agree to disagree and be civil about it.

I also realize James is a moderator, and most of us expect our moderators to be above reproach. Speaking for myself, I can say James has not once unfairly silenced my views. If you feel you've been wronged, then take it up with Tom and let him sort it out. Today's post set aside, James' wealth of TSP knowledge contributes a great deal to this forum, enough so that I'm willing to overlook his political flaws.

 

[JTH]

Would love to see a 50% retracement, creating a right shoulder peak around the 105.60 area. Perhaps somewhere in the right circle?

View attachment 10878

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I was thinking the same thing yesterday JTH. Great minds!!

 

[JTH]

That's awesome!

And that's sitting out a robust January...when the -C- fund was up 2.4%.

You're just proof that if you (or anyone) misses the train at some point on a quick market run-up...being patient over being a pig pays off big-time.

Thanks, it was a choir to say the least, I'm a continuous work in progress, hopefully remembering each of the painful lessons learned, patience being an important one.

I was thinking the same thing yesterday JTH. Great minds!!

Thanks IT, watching the bonds have been interesting, tricky, but played right can be very rewarding. This year I've noticed (roughly) a 22% inverse relationship to stocks. This is lower than the previous 33% studies I've researched, meaning it can make for some great trades this year.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Thanks IT, watching the bonds have been interesting, tricky, but played right can be very rewarding. This year I've noticed (roughly) a 22% inverse relationship to stocks. This is lower than the previous 33% studies I've researched, meaning it can make for some great trades this year.

I'm hoping! Up about 0.84% on my F fund trades so far this year.