JTH's Account Talk

[Bquat]

We are at the top of the declining channel, but since it's a highly watched channel, it might represent a sentimental counter-trend. The S-Fund has clearly broken above this trend-line.

Thanks

 

[JTH]

I'll let the big boys duke it out over a new high next week.

For myself, I've met my overall goals but was invested a couple days longer than my preference. I need a mental break from the markets, so out the door I go...

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I need a mental break from the markets, so out the door I go...

I agree, which was about 42.5% of my decision to go to G...

It's been a crazy ride with everything going (and still going) on in the world.

I hope it can settle down and just GROW... :laugh:

 

[nguyensv]

I agree, which was about 42.5% of my decision to go to G...

It's been a crazy ride with everything going (and still going) on in the world.

I hope it can settle down and just GROW... :laugh:

i too met my goals for the year.. but i just started working and need it to growwwwwww exponentially! :toung:

 

[mayday]

IFT EOB Today 100% G-Fund

I see you took the profit before the month ran out.

Only 2 trades next month.

 

[JTH]

I see you took the profit before the month ran out.

Only 2 trades next month.

Yes, always nice to exit on a good note

 

[JTH]

2011 Personal Performance Report

1 Jan: Started out from 2010 with a 1G, 26C, 52S, 21I allocation. I had reservations about this allocation because I felt it was a mistake to split my resources across multiple funds. The reason behind my thinking? How certain can you be about a position if you're so inclined to spread your risk? If you take a position you should have proof this is the best position you can take, and by spreading your risk you're showing you have doubt about the position you're taking.

11 Jan: Entered G with 1.01% At the time I made this decision both C & S had been down 4 of 5 days, and the dollar have been down 5 of 6. I felt the I fund had taken a downturn and I didn't want to get dragged down into the red. Turns out my decision was 1 day too early, although I escaped with a .43% gain that day, I missed out on a 1.15% gain the next day. I ended up sitting in the G-Fund for the next 10 trading days.

26 Jan: Entered S-Fund. I didn't really want to enter the markets at this level, but I felt the pullback had already occurred and since the trend is up I felt perhaps we were ready for another breakout. This time I was 2 days early, as the Egypt crisis began to emerge. My first day in the S-fund I gained .41% and on the second day I lost -2.15%

31 Jan EOM: I managed to end the month with a slight profit at .15% not even enough to outpace the G-Fund or inflation Today's bounce gives me concerns going into February, the bounce was very weak on the transports and weak across the S&P 500 & Wilshire 4500. The good news (if you can call it that) is I managed to meet my goal of starting the month invested...

4 Feb: Entered G-Fund. Started the month out invested 100% S-Fund. After making a 4-day 2.13% gain I headed to the sidelines to rest out the oil-based news and wait for another buying opportunity.

24 Feb: Entered S-Fund. I had sat on the sidelines for 13 days, prices pulled back over 3% so I felt like I was jumping in at a slightly discounted price. Just managed to get in a lower price than my last exit.

28 Feb: Ended the month with a 4.71% gain, remaining 100% S-Fund. Bonds are tracking with stocks (who will blink first), I'll be looking to make a minimum level before making an exit. My personal belief is the downtrend has already began, only a double-top breakout will change my mind.

3 March: Entered G-Fund. The night before I had decided to make an exit, only if I thought I could escape with more than 1.37% This would (at a minimum) afford me the opportunity to outperform the G-Fund for the month should I decide to stay out of stocks for the remainder of March. It was a calculated risk that paid off and I'm happy with the outcome, having made .67% more than my lowest expectation. A 5 day investment in the S-Fund yielded a 3.04% gain.

15 Mar: Entered S-Fund. Earth Quake devastates Japan, but watching the news over the weekend I'm optimistic the people of Japan (more so than other peoples) can overcome these tragedies. The ability of the markets to hold ground under these strained Middle Eastern & Japan conditions is nothing short of amazing. As I write this, Futures are down hard, so be it, I can't be right on everything all the time, but I can avoid being wrong for too long. Off the last major wave shown in the chart, if we retrace more than 50% (1258.85) for more than 3 days, I will be forced to consider an exit.

25 Mar: Entered G-Fund. Ended up staying in S-Fund position a bit too long, but adding a little patience worked out. 2.82% over 9 trading days. Needed a mental break, watching the markets as intensely as I do, takes it's toll.

YTD Stats: Updated 25 March, 28 days Invested 30 days sidelined, of days invested, 68% positive, 32% negative. Average daily gain .14%

 

[JTH]

Yo my blog is fixed now.

Check out the transports. Although the green trendline was broken long ago, it's somewhat reassuring to see it climb back above the line.

View attachment 10834

 

[Dutchy]

Yo my blog is fixed now.

Check out the transports. Although the green trendline was broken long ago, it's somewhat reassuring to see it climb back above the line.

View attachment 10834

Thanks for the great charts and informative commentary. You've locked in some nice gains YTD!

 

[JTH]

Thanks for the great charts and informative commentary. You've locked in some nice gains YTD!

Thanks for dropping in Dutchy, it is nice to have locked it in, now I can sit back, relax, and give a more objective view of the markets.

 

[Birchtree]

Just keep your eyes on the rearview mirror because you know who's coming - I may make gains this week while you are resting. I suspect I'll be buying stock this week.

 

[FAB1]

Just keep your eyes on the rearview mirror because you know who's coming.

Birch is right. :nuts:

I may catch up to JTH. :laugh:

 

[JTH]

Just keep your eyes on the rearview mirror because you know who's coming - I may make gains this week while you are resting. I suspect I'll be buying stock this week.

Thanks Birchtree I'm well aware of what happens when I don't watch my rear. You may pass me up this week, but I'm content with the gains taken off the table. My own perspective tells me this is a great week to watch from the sidelines. We may need a catalyst to push us over the previous top, start spreading the rumors now...

 

[Birchtree]

Don't worry, you'll have plenty of time to catch him - he'll still be taking mental R&R into the first week of April. We all know the stress of managing index funds.

 

[JTH]

Birch is right. :nuts:

I may catch up to JTH. :laugh:

You'd be ahead of me right now (you were most of this month) if it weren't for that laughable spit-allocation you have there. You're dipping half a foot in the water?

 

[FAB1]

You'd be ahead of me right now (you were most of this month) if it weren't for that laughable spit-allocation you have there. You're dipping half a foot in the water?

Say it, dont spray it, eh?

 

[JTH]

Say it, dont spray it, eh?

Yez I canzot tipe wort a damm

 

[FAB1]

JTH - youre right. Ive been in a split since 3/08 (didnt realize it was that long) and during that time I went down from around 6.65 to 5.00 and back up to 6.62. As my old granpa might say, that aint worth Spit!

Oh well.

 

[Gumby]

JTH,

Looks like you are going to be in the top 10 on the tracker tonight.
Congrats

G can be sweet...... AND very predictable. :nuts:

 

[JTH]

JTH - youre right. Ive been in a split since 3/08 (didnt realize it was that long) and during that time I went down from around 6.65 to 5.00 and back up to 6.62. As my old granpa might say, that aint worth Spit!

Oh well.

Well in the grand scheme of things going sideways is hella better than backwards. We're in the Top 50, that's very respectable and there's just over 3% difference between #1 & #50 so it can change real fast. I should know, in Jan 2010 I was #1 week one and in the bottom 50 by week 4

JTH,

Looks like you are going to be in the top 10 on the tracker tonight.
Congrats

G can be sweet...... AND very predictable.

Thanks Gumby it's going to get tricky from here. From my perspective I've met 70% of my 12% YTD minimum goal. Furthermore, I'm not above thinking this market has hit it's top for the year, we have just 5 weeks till May, where we get out final answer. I see you're in the G-Fund at spot #36, that's a good spot to be. If we get a pullback from here you'll be thrust into the top 20.