JTH's Account Talk

[mayday]

I'm still cautiously optimistic, technical resistance has shown its cards across the indexes. We may get volatile here, establishing a short trading range. The bulls better not gloat too much...I did think long and hard about making an exit today, "not just yet" I thought to myself.

I got out Jason. Hope you don't hold your cards too long.

 

[JTH]

I got out Jason. Hope you don't hold your cards too long.

Hard to say, This month I've made 2 trades based on 2 different systems (not the norm.) Technically speaking I've met most of my goals, but my preference is to start off the next month already invested. If I get out now, I'll lock in gains, but then have to burn an IFT next month to get back in.

At a minimum, I expect to see some profit taking tomorrow.

 

[mayday]

Limited IFT's stink. I wish you luck buddy.

 

[JTH]

Limited IFT's stink. I wish you luck buddy.

It's a tough inconclusive call to make. I have one system that statistically tells me to make an exit tomorrow. Another that tells me we are approaching resistance before the next downturn, and another that tells me to stick around and exit next month.

What I don't have is enough conviction to make a decision...

 

[burrocrat]

What I don't have is enough conviction to make a decision...

oh i got your conviction right here,

all these numbers, then with the whole charts thing

i just move it when i feel like it, put my back into it.

 

[mayday]

Do what you think is right and proper.

 

[crws]

light travels faster than sound. this is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.

HA!! :laugh::laugh::laugh:

 

[maabee6]

JTH...I am trying to read up on technical analysis and have noticed you seem to be knowledgeable in the TA arena.

What do you utilize for time periods when tracking our TSP funds with the various indicators available?

Furthermore, what indicators do you feel give you the most accurate signals, whether used together or alone?

As I mentioned, I am really interested in learning everything I can about TA and would appreciate any insight you can toss my way.

:nuts:

 

[JTH]

As far as I'm concerned, Bulkowski is the king of TA, he's statistical, frugal, and extremely humble. For time frames, I've been opening up to "the bigger picture" usually nothing less than 3 months. For technical indicators, I've used & back-tested nearly every one I could get my hands on. They each have strengths & weaknesses and I've grown tired of using them. I use them for grading momentum, trend, & volume on the MARCON system, but I haven't used technical indicators for my trading at all over the past year. I find they cloud my judgment, indicators can be wrong, while the price is always right.

Price is my best friend, I've been using trendlines, retracements, and linear lines as guides to judge price. I truly believe prices are the best indicator. This year I am not using a system, I'm free-styling with some basic guidelines to keep me grounded.

My most fundamental goal is to be invested for the least amount of time and get the most amount of profit. I'm avoiding split allocations because the tear apart my ability to use sound singular decisions. My personal belief is the majority of successful TSPers use 100% allocations.

 

[JTH]

Odds favor I'll make an exit tomorrow, I'll wait to see what the futures look like in the morning before making the decision final.

 

[BigJohn]

I may be following your lead, hoping for a nice opening.

 

[Birchtree]

JTH.

Don't forget that senile Birch is pulling up the rear and will get past you in time.

 

[JTH]

JTH.

Don't forget that senile Birch is pulling up the rear and will get past you in time.

True that may happen, but one thing I've learned is not compare myself to any one person, you especially! If you pass me me up, it's ok

 

[vegasmith]

True that may happen, but one thing I've learned is not compare myself to any one person, you especially! If you pass me me up, it's ok

So true. In a way Birchtree's like a long-term health indicator for the economy. In a way I hope he passes us all up.

 

[JTH]

So true. In a way Birchtree's like a long-term health indicator for the economy. In a way I hope he passes us all up.

Thanks VS, that's a great perspective!

 

[JTH]

Watch 5172-5177 on the Transports

View attachment 10812

 

[Bquat]

If you draw a line from the 1343 top threw the next high, Doesn't it extend to todays peak showing that we are now at the top of the declining channel and short term bearish trend. What you think? I can't chart like you.:embarrest:

 

[JTH]

We are at the top of the declining channel, but since it's a highly watched channel, it might represent a sentimental counter-trend. The S-Fund has clearly broken above this trend-line.

 

[JTH]

IFT EOB Today 100% G-Fund

 

[Gumby]

IFT EOB Today 100% G-Fund

I am struggling with my decision today. I want to stay in..currently 100% S... but there has to be a little pullback next week.

I have one indicator showing buy.... one showing sell.... and one on hold.
Jason... I think you have convinced me. I'll let the big boys duke it out over a new high next week. I sure wish we could have a couple more IFT's per month.