JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

I see the transports are stronger today playing catchup I presume. At least you're not buying the S fund at $22.00. Anyway I'm catching 20% of the S fund probably until next Monday.

We still have some work cut out for us, but for the moment I see the markets turning, with short-term higher highs. I'm taking some risk by not waiting to see where the next low falls.

Transports 15 Minute chart:
View attachment 10520

 

[crws]

Titanic on the horizon?
Let's see if CNBC picks this up.
Gold's down and bonds are up. Bugs on the run?

Gold Loses Safe-Haven Appeal

-or-

Silver: The Big Investment Of This Decade?

 

[JTH]

Titanic on the horizon?
Let's see if CNBC picks this up.
Gold's down and bonds are up. Bugs on the run?

Gold Loses Safe-Haven Appeal

-or-

Silver: The Big Investment Of This Decade?

I realize I'm going against the grain here, but for the moment I believe the correction in metals is near its end. On the 52 week chart, I've drawn a regression channel from the Feb low to the Jul low. Off the 52 week range we've retraced 31.55% I'm putting this chart on a code yellow, the 52 week trend is still up and this could be a great buying opportunity.

I should also clarify I see physical gold/silver as an investment, and paper gold/silver as a trading vehicle, it's dangerous to play with the fear trade...

View attachment 10528

 

[JTH]

I'm going to a friends house tonight to drink some Beer, smoke some Cigars, and do each in excessive amounts. As Birch would say "I'm going to the garden"

 

[FAB1]

A fine red wine will do for me.

 

[JTH]

MARCON

View attachment 10545


The biggest reason we have a MARCON Yellow this week is the weakness in the Transports & Small caps. I'll start with the weakest of the indexes the Transports. We can see we've done some damage to the dominant trendline. Regardless of where the price action takes us, this channel is officially broken. If we continue rising, making a higher high, I'll redraw the channel, if we continue down I'm looking for a test at level 2. If level 2 breaks I expect a test of level 1 with the strong possibility of a 50% retracement at the yellow line.

View attachment 10541


You can see we've broken the channel in the S-Fund, but I'm waiting for confirmation on the third wave at the ? so the channel remains intact.

View attachment 10542


These charts cover the 26 week (6 month) timeframe and when you look at prices within this channel on the S&P 500, you can clearly see the strength when compared to the small caps. We've establish a floor at 1262, we want to maintain this level to resume the uptrend.

View attachment 10543


I'm not going to post charts for the I-Fund but I will tell you both EFA & UDN were the strongest charts over the last 2 weeks. F-Fund's AGG has been the weakest fund over the last 4 weeks and has had the same reading over the last 3 weeks. The downtrend has clearly been broken, but I define AGG as "trendless" unable to confirm a break of the downtrend & unable to begin an uptrend. It does appear to have a rather vague rising-wedge/bear-flag. pattern. Since the previous trend was down, these patterns should be a continuation of the downtrend.
View attachment 10544

For questions on the MARCON system please see my blog.

 

[JTH]

Ending the month at the bottom of the tracker is giving me some serious January 2010 flash backs.

Something to consider: Last Thursday January 27, the I-Fund closed at 20.72 Last time prices were that high was on August 4th 2008 at 20.84 that was 638 trading days ago...

 

[crws]

I realize I'm going against the grain here, but for the moment I believe the correction in metals is near its end. On the 52 week chart, I've drawn a regression channel from the Feb low to the Jul low. Off the 52 week range we've retraced 31.55% I'm putting this chart on a code yellow, the 52 week trend is still up and this could be a great buying opportunity.

I should also clarify I see physical gold/silver as an investment, and paper gold/silver as a trading vehicle, it's dangerous to play with the fear trade...

View attachment 10528

I expect the Middle East civil unrest will support your conclusion, or vice versa.
I'm considering going 1/2 cash to have some DCA leverage after I see how the wee hours of the morning pan out...

 

[JTH]

I expect the Middle East civil unrest will support your conclusion, or vice versa.
I'm considering going 1/2 cash to have some DCA leverage after I see how the wee hours of the morning pan out...

I wasn't expecting Egypt to flood the news, I'm voting for a pause day, then pop day, but I never get what i want. I'm holding on metals, in the meantime I'll be picking up three more positions tomorrow morning, SGU, RAS, & SIRI. I'll be holding these positions for awhile, I need to throw more capital to work, perhaps a TSP loan is in my future...

 

[JTH]

Thus far the bottoms are holding together, we need to not pierce through Friday's lows. A close at or below 19.63 on the VIX would give me some comfort. 19.63 is a 50% retracement off the 3 month timeframe.

View attachment 10549

 

[Birchtree]

I suspect that the S fund will have regained its' $0.47 by the close on 2/1 just as Milk takes up his position. I plan to move my S fund position (20%) once it penetrates $22.00 and that may be on Friday.

 

[WorkFE]

I plan to move my S fund position (20%) once it penetrates $22.00 and that may be on Friday.

Move it where? Surely not G

 

[Birchtree]

When I move my S fund it will be back to 40C and 60I - staying large caps for the best dollar gains.

 

[WorkFE]

aye

 

[JTH]

January 2011 Personal Performance Report

1 Jan: Started out from 2010 with a 1G, 26C, 52S, 21I allocation. I had reservations about this allocation because I felt it was a mistake to split my resources across multiple funds. The reason behind my thinking? How certain can you be about a position if you're so inclined to spread your risk? If you take a position you should have proof this is the best position you can take, and by spreading your risk you're showing you have doubt about the position you're taking.

11 Jan: Exited to G with 1.01% At the time I made this decision both C & S had been down 4 of 5 days, and the dollar have been down 5 of 6. I felt the I fund had taken a downturn and I didn't want to get dragged down into the red. Turns out my decision was 1 day too early, although I escaped with a .43% gain that day, I missed out on a 1.15% gain the next day. I ended up sitting in the G-Fund for the next 10 trading days.

26 Jan: I didn't really want to enter the markets at this level, but I felt the pullback had already occurred and since the trend is up I felt perhaps we were ready for another breakout. This time I was 2 days early, as the Egypt crisis began to emerge. My first day in the S-fund I gained .41% and on the second day I lost -2.15%

31 Jan: I managed to end the month with a slight profit at .15% not even enough to outpace the G-Fund or inflation Today's bounce gives me concerns going into February, the bounce was very weak on the transports and weak across the S&P 500 & Wilshire 4500. The good news (if you can call it that) is I managed to meet my goal of starting the month invested...

YTD Stats: Days, 30% positive, 20% negative, 50% on the sidelines. Best daily gain 1.09% worst daily loss -2.15% Best YTD gain 1.55% worst YTD loss -2.15%

 

[JTH]

Large gap down on AGG is this an indicator of money flow?
View attachment 10557

 

[Birchtree]

I think it's related to the strength in the ISM manufacturing index - the economy is on the mend and rates will eventually start to rise - bad for bonds but good for equities. Money will flow from bonds for the next several years - that market is 10 times larger than the stock market.

 

[crws]

Hey JT(H)

How's the dollar looking today on that aforementioned wedge channel?

 

[JTH]

Hey JT(H)

How's the dollar looking today on that aforementioned wedge channel?

For this week the bottom line is at 76.60 just 40 cents away!

 

[crws]

For this week the bottom line is at 76.60 just 40 cents away!

Wow!
With that being the case, I say there will be some selling to free cash for Superbowl bets...
Check would be in the mail Thursday? :laugh:

If we touch that bottom trendline there will be an interesting scenario to be had after a run like today.
Bounce or trounce, time to work it!

If that $ channel stays intact and the market acclimates on-the-fly, would that not give sellers a significant
incentive to unload equities at an end-of-channel rate, most likely purchased and held with lower channel $$?

(winging it here, for educational porpoises)

Heh-
PS.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=299370&postcount=563