JTH's Account Talk

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Not sure what you mean by accurate information? From the Subscriber systems I see listed in the tracker is there one I'm not ahead of? I'm not attacking your system or anyone else's and I certainly wouldn't expect you to give away your hard work for free. In fact you've been more than kind helping those around you make money, not like some other jack-offs around here who think they've secretively re-invented the wheel. I've also mentioned more than once, that some folks are better off not managing their own money because they don't know what the hell they are doing and aren't willing to take the time to learn. I do like to compare myself to the subscription systems because it gives me a good gauge from which to judge my performance. Next year your system's training wheels come off and you get to feel the full weight of responsibility knowing the outcome of millions of dollars & retirements await your bated breath. Some folks have what it takes and I honestly believe you do, that's just not something I myself care to do.
 
If I was going to ask only three questions about your system.

How many indexs/stocks was it tested on?

How far back was it back tested?

What was the maximum drawdown/how much pain should one be prepared to accept?
 
Gotcha. :D

I was talking about my return. I'm not an actual premium service yet, so I stand corrrected..........:o

JTH said:
Not sure what you mean by accurate information? From the Subscriber systems I see listed in the tracker is there one I'm not ahead of? I'm not attacking your system or anyone else's and I certainly wouldn't expect you to give away your hard work for free. In fact you've been more than kind helping those around you make money, not like some other jack-offs around here who think they've secretively re-invented the wheel. I've also mentioned more than once, that some folks are better off not managing their own money because they don't know what the hell they are doing and aren't willing to take the time to learn. I do like to compare myself to the subscription systems because it gives me a good gauge from which to judge my performance. Next year your system's training wheels come off and you get to feel the full weight of responsibility knowing the outcome of millions of dollars & retirements await your bated breath. Some folks have what it takes and I honestly believe you do, that's just not something I myself care to do.
Click to expand...
 
Intrepid_Trader said:
Gotcha. :D

I was talking about my return. I'm not an actual premium service yet, so I stand corrrected..........:o
Click to expand...

For that there is not doubt, you and a handful are Da Men this year hands down. What gets confusing is out of the top 50 is who was following who, some of those folks had a bit of luck thrown in too. However, for next year that makes you my #1 target! I'll consider it personal best if I can out-perform you by the 1st quarter. :D
 
JTH said:
If I was going to ask only three questions about your system.

How many indexs/stocks was it tested on?

How far back was it back tested?

What was the maximum drawdown/how much pain should one be prepared to accept?
Click to expand...

I've gone over some of this in my overview/history on the premium service page that Tom has set up. Besides TSP, I've currently back tested 4 different ETF's and 4 different index mutual funds. I hope to have 4 more of each backtested by the first of the year. Of course, these are long/short pairs.........

The maximum drawdown depends on which equity you are using. With TSP, there has only been two negative trades in 3 years. One of them happened to be 2.26%. This was in August of 09, after already being up over 40% for the year.

With ETFs and mutual funds, you can expect to lose 10% or more at any given time. But it's not uncommon to make twice that on any given trade either. These are much riskier trades, as you know, because you are playing both sides of the ball.

I consider my TSP trading lower risk than a buy and hold strategy because I'm only in equities for about a week per month on average. The "oh my what's gonna happen tomorrow" stress is greatly reduced.............;)
 
JTH said:
For that there is not doubt, you and a handful are Da Men this year hands down. What gets confusing is out of the top 50 is who was following who, some of those folks had a bit of luck thrown in too. However, for next year that makes you my #1 target! I'll consider it personal best if I can out-perform you by the 1st quarter. :D
Click to expand...

Bring it!! :p
 
I agree, although not in fashion, there's something to be said about sitting on your hands in the G-Fund. My best TSP trades this year were made on the sidelines. :)
 
For those of you looking for a sign to the end of this rally, a VIX close above 18.32 would provide confirmation. Monday's positive price action did not deflate fear as much as I would have liked to see.

VIX 30 Minute chart:
View attachment 10411
 
Question: If we are on hte sidelines in the G fund, should we just wait for the next buy signal?
 
You could be waiting until the cows come home. What do you want to buy? The S fund is going to give up some of yesterday's gains on the close. I suggest you close your eyes, hold your nose and simply jump - it's the only way to play the bull. Snort.
 
For the time being I'm showing the markets have found support (SPX 1262.) Large caps are strong while small caps and the Transports have taken a bigger hit, but its wilder swings are to be expected. Transports & Small Caps tell the truth, when they go, so goes the markets. Till then, the trend remains up.
 
11999 - the question was for the end of 2011 not the end of January. Just when I thought you had found the bull....
 
Find him an avatar of what an "Intrepid Trader" looks like and Im
sure he will use it. :D
 
I really don't think he will change his Avatar, he's had that one longer than I've had mine! bandages.gif
 
nnuut said:
I really don't think he will change his Avatar, he's had that one longer than I've had mine! View attachment 10418
Click to expand...

And I dont think anyones sure of what an Intrepid Trader looks like :toung:

Your avatar works well, nuutt.

I still dont have one, do I? Takes me forever to make up my mind - you wouldnt want to go with me shopping for clothing.
 
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