JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

It's not much, but it would be nice to continue our quest for higher highs & lows. Despite today's damage, If we don't violate 1069 I'd consider that a good sign.

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Here's a closer look
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[JTH]

For those of you who are wondering, I lost the data on one of my laptops during the move. Unfortunately that means I lost all the backtesting data I've accumulated, including the Axial Drifters & Golden Cross systems.

I'm a computer guy, so I should know better, then to not back up my data, so it is what it is. I really don't care to redo all that crud, it's just too time consuming, so I'm just going to let it be, and perhaps dabble with something else.

Here is a glimpse of a hybrid system I'm working on, designed to track the Top 4. Today it issued a sell across the board.

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[alevin]

JTH, that is really too bad about losing all your work. but you seem to be rolling with the punch, considering you're already working on a new plan. good job.

 

[JTH]

EMA ribbon showing the moving averages converging with the March 2009 channel. 50MA Volume is rising, as in March 2009 when volume subsides, it may signal the bottom is near.

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[JTH]

JTH, that is really too bad about losing all your work. but you seem to be rolling with the punch, considering you're already working on a new plan. good job.

Thank you friend, it was somewhat disheartening to lose all that data, but at least the core lessons from it were already learned.

 

[JTH]

I'll wager we've put in the lows for the day. Check out the green arrow on the Transports. That's a spike in volume with a possible swing low in price. It is very possible we could rally from here...

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[crws]

winternals disk commander would probably be able to retrieve that... unless your HDD was non-functional

 

[Corepuncher]

Hmm, but on that graph back at "21" it was similar but bottom was later...also, that bottom was at the low end of your price channel...we are not there yet. You could be right though...nobody knows.

My guess is that we could get a short term bounce off this S&P 1040 level (as expected), but with little fanfare and it will quickly die and we'll head to 1000.

 

[nasa1974]

JTH, Let's hope your crystal ball is fine tuned. I could use some market good news. :toung:

 

[JTH]

winternals disk commander would probably be able to retrieve that... unless your HDD was non-functional

I did try to recover it, but the data was partially written over and the files were corrupted.

Hmm, but on that graph back at "21" it was similar but bottom was later...also, that bottom was at the low end of your price channel...we are not there yet. You could be right though...nobody knows.

My guess is that we could get a short term bounce off this S&P 1040 level (as expected), but with little fanfare and it will quickly die and we'll head to 1000.

I do agree, it's a short-term rally at best, and I won't be making a play for it. I'd rather wait for a break above the descending price channel. I may make a go of it if we can bounce off the bottom of the channel...

 

[JTH]

Of the Top 4, 2 are now trading below their 12 month SMA, and the other 2 have tested it. However, if you were going to trade based on this system, I'd recommend you use Monthly closing prices.

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[JTH]

Some thoughts, although it is tempting to jump in, I'll wait it out a bit longer.


Yes we have many of the short-term indicators now signaling a buy, but with this level of volatility in the markets I happen to believe we need further confirmation. Some things I'll be looking for today, if not this week are a higher high & a higher low on the Daily charts, a close above the 200 EMA, with an increase in volume supporting higher prices. I'm also looking for a break above the Fibonacci levels based on the February 5th low.

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[JTH]

I'm currently invested in the F-Fund and following AGG within its rising price channel. Currently, the bottom of that channel is being tested, but I may hold here, based on the previous swing low (red circle) and the price action in stocks. With 1 IFT on the books I need to make sure I'm confident in my analysis and prepared to stay in for the rest of this month before I jump from bonds into stocks.

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Please see my previous post for thoughts on the S&P 500.

 

[nasa1974]

Thanks JTH I was hunting for charts to stare at.

 

[JTH]

For the Transports, we have some encouraging signs of a bottom. The Hourly charts show a break above the descending price channel, while the Daily charts show a a break back into the bottom of the rising price channel from the March lows. That short white line on the hourly chart is the 500 EMA, I consider it a fairly reliable indicator on this timeframe. We've tested it, perhaps we can now work to close above it.

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See my previous post for thoughts on AGG and the S&P 500.

 

[JTH]

Thanks JTH I was hunting for charts to stare at.

My friend, you're more than welcome!!!

 

[JTH]

S&P 600 small caps opened with a gap above the 20EMA. Last time we gaped above this indicator, the gap filled that day, but it was the beginning of a strong leg up.

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See my previous post on the Transports, AGG, and the S&P 500.

 

[JamesE]

I'm in your boat Jason, I passed on jumping back in tomorrow. Some of the guys on t-t are really bearish on this little rally. I am tempted to jump back in but don't wanna get left holding the bag if this fizzles out..

 

[Birchtree]

What would happen if we were to take out Dow 10,400 before the close - there would be panic buying from the TA hedge funds. That would take back the previous 323 point drop.

 

[JTH]

I'm in your boat Jason, I passed on jumping back in tomorrow. Some of the guys on t-t are really bearish on this little rally. I am tempted to jump back in but don't wanna get left holding the bag if this fizzles out..

What would happen if we were to take out Dow 10,400 before the close - there would be panic buying from the TA hedge funds. That would take back the previous 323 point drop.

This is the now famous Mutual Fund Monday, so we sort of expected some money to roll in today, especially considering my belief that Positive Fridays tend to lead to a positive Monday. If we finish in the green today, that should be a positive sign considering it will be the first time we've had 3 up days since the previous Bull leg. The tricky part will be will investors "hope" for a pull back to enter back into stocks?

But for the moment, the top 4 appear to be fireing on all cylinders, and with a 3 day rally the Bulls have control of prices.