JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

AGG gaps down and bounce off the 200 EMA at 103.72

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On the weekly 20 EMA Bollinger Band you can see we have some more room to the downside before a bounce off the lower band.

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[JTH]

All systems go...

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[JTH]

Now that all the previously baked-in good news has passed perhaps we can now find out this markets true intensions? Looking at the present, of the Four Horsemen on the weekly 15 minute charts it's a mixed bag. The Transports & S&P 500 have been chugging along putting in higher lows and working on higher highs. The NASDAQ finishes the week broadening out prices with a higher high & Lower low and a 20/200 SMA crossunder. The Small Caps have shown the most weakness appearing to put in some recent lower lows with confirmation from 20/50, 20/200, & 50/200 crossunders. Based on these 4 charts, for the weekly short-term I'm seeing the markets in a Neutral condition, therfore I may hold with my finger on the "eject" button.

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[JTH]

The Four Horsemen on the Monthly 60 minute charts show on March 19th our leader the Transports peaked, while the other 3 peaked on March 25th. Since those dates the markets have been trading sideways with the S&P 500 showing the most strength, followed closely by the Transports. Both the NASDAQ & Small caps show the most weakness trading under the 50% level within the drawn in Quadrant lines. Based on this I'd put this Intermediate timeframe on a Neutral condition with a Bullish Bias based on the previous price action.

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[JTH]

Now lets look at the Four Horsemen's Daily 3 Month charts. Based on the 20/50/200 EMA prices are extremely overbought showing not a single test of these moving averages during the Month of March. Going back to the Early February Regression Channels, prices are slightly oversold on the Transports & S&P 500, and solidly oversold on the NASDAQ and Small Caps. My instincts tell me the charts are due for a 3 week test of the 20 EMAs, but as it stands now, we still have Long-term bullish condition's over the last 3 months.

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[JTH]

Lastly, looking at the weekly Four Horsemen going back to the March 2009 low, we can see prices are on target both within the 13 EMA Bollinger Bands and the Linear Regression Channels. All Bulls ahead...

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[JTH]

Some interesting perspectives on the Dollar's weekly chart going back to the March 2009 bottom on stocks. You can see the downward red Regression Channel and how prices briefly became overbought the previous to last week. At the same time, this marked a 50% retracement. If I were to ignore the rising green channel, then I'd assume the Dollar has some serious downside potential, perhaps making for a great entry point into the I-Fund.

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[JTH]

EFA Daily 3 Month chart: While still on target within the Regression Channel, it's not every day you get to see prices gap up and over the outer Bollinger Band.

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[JTH]

On the Daily 3 month charts looking at the top 8 weighted I-Fund countries.

4 have broken above their January highs.
2 are testing the January highs.
1 is testing a 50% retracement for the second time.
1 is testing a 38.2% retracement after a failed 50% retracement.

Can you guess which two are members of the PIIGS?

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[JTH]

Hard to guage this market this morning. The S&P 500 has put in a higher high today while the Transports, NASDAQ & Small Caps haven't. Oh, and the Dollar is up too.

 

[JTH]

I'm home today, so I get to watch the markets closely, therfore I may use my first IFT to make an exit.

S&P 500 15 minute chart.

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[Birchtree]

I would wait on any exit until we take out the 61.8% Fibonacci levels of 1228 and 11,245. We may test those levels before the week ends - but then again that might lead to more upside for stocks in the next couple of months. Fear that bond money heading your way.

 

[JTH]

I would wait on any exit until we take out the 61.8% Fibonacci levels of 1228 and 11,245. We may test those levels before the week ends - but then again that might lead to more upside for stocks in the next couple of months. Fear that bond money heading your way.

You mean this Bond money?

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[JTH]

15 minute charts:

The Transports failed to break through the double top. The price action has been rather messy since the early 19 March Peak. So for the moment I'm watching this butt-ugly ascending triangle that should have broken out last week.

The NASDAQ has yet to break through the previous 25 March peak.

The S&P 500 has been the most consistent, trading nicely in this rising parallel price channel.

The S&P 600 Small Caps impressively break through the previous 25 March peak, ending the day with authority.

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EFA traded flat on the day. On this houly chart I'm watching 56.50 for support.

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[JTH]

Interesting tidbit, on the Four Horsemen with the 15 minute, 60 minute and Daily charts, all 20 EMAs are above the 50 EMAs and all 50 EMAs are above the 200 EMAs. If that's not a bull market I don't know what is...

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[Gumby]

Jason,

Impressive charts.....thanks for sharing.

 

[JTH]

Jason,

Impressive charts.....thanks for sharing.

Thanks Gumby, it's good to see your still hanging around, you've been quiet

 

[JTH]

IFT 70G, 15C, 15S

This was a decision I made last night as I went through my charts. If we get some follow-through from the Tran and NASDAQ, I'll be happy to use my second IFT to jump back in full-swing.

 

[JamesE]

Hope you didn't jump the gun, no real bad news out there right now and April is one of the best months of the year. You could be right tho, a small consolidation may be here sooner than later. GL

 

[JTH]

Hope you didn't jump the gun, no real bad news out there right now and April is one of the best months of the year. You could be right tho, a small consolidation may be here sooner than later. GL

It's likely I'm not right, but I'm taking other factors into consideration.

On a dialy basis previous seasonality patterns from March didn't match up to my expecations from the Trader's 2010 Almanac.

On some of my charts the upper bollinger bands were pierced. When this occurs 3 things can happen. You can continue to go up, but this is least likely to happen. You can go down, or you can go sidways. As of late, in an uptrend sideways seems to happen most often.

The NASDAQ has shown some weakness, as have the Transports. Without support from these two I don't believe the Markets can run up much further.

We are long overdue for a pullback. Sure we may not get one, but when we do it will be fast and sellers will be stepping over each other to get out. By then it will be too late to exit TSP without taking some damage in the process.

Lastly, Pigs get slaughtered, I did well in March and don't feel like pressing the odds based on what I've already said. I did leave 30% in stocks so I won't miss out completely if we surge upward from here.