JTH's Account Talk

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fedgolfer said:
what's your interpretation.... doesn't look like any of those systems are near a sell, correct?

Thanks, JTH!
Click to expand...

Yes and it's a bit scarely because all signals strengthened this week. For me, I'm watching the (long in the tooth) Bull Flag on the Dollar and hoping it fails.
 
Jason, are your guidelines for the ADIntermediate the same as for the original AD, as read in your Disclaimer?

I am not clear if the dates given are to be understood as the `last day' to buy/sell, or to do that day, or ... ??.

You may have posted more on using the triad and I have simply missed seeing it.

Thank you - grandma
:)
p.s. I see your response to FG - so I gather the dates are `get-in.' ...meaning Monday 1/11 would be an okay time as long as things are green - ...??

p.s. #2 - is this set up so it changes automatically, or are you having to program it daily?
 
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grandma said:
Jason, are your guidelines for the ADIntermediate the same as for the original AD, as read in your Disclaimer?

I am not clear if the dates given are to be understood as the `last day' to buy/sell, or to do that day, or ... ??.

You may have posted more on using the triad and I have simply missed seeing it.

Thank you - grandma
:)
Click to expand...

Yes the guidelines are the same, but those dates are not the last buy dates.

The ADL's last buy date was April 3rd 2009.

Back on March 26 the ADI went into a buy but sold briefly for 8 days in July. The ADI's last buy date was Jul 16, but it switched to the S-Fund Dec 18th. Now that ADI's I-Fund signals are back to a buy it will switch into the I fund on the 2nd to last day of the month, to avoid running out of IFTs.

I know it might sound somewhat confusing, and I've had a hard time explaining it. But I had to make a rule for every conceivable situation, so that I didn't have to make a judgment call. I've left the I-Fund as the default because I feel that over long periods of time it out performs the other funds.

The I3 signal is the Dollar. The ADI rules are the same, just the EMAs are shorter.
 
JTH: Now that ADI's I-Fund signals are back to a buy it will switch into the I fund on the 2nd to last day of the month, to avoid running out of IFTs.
Click to expand...

-the 2nd to the last TRADING day of the month?
January ends on a weekend -

I understand the part that when the market opens @0900 a person wants to be where he thinks he should be when the bell rings at COB.
Ex: when market opened Monday, Jan 4, L fund was already there. If I had put my funds change request in for cob on Jan 4, I would be equal. As it was, I didn't get it done until the next day 1/5 Tuesday. (that one day delay made a difference of >0.2% which translated to 17 points diff on the tracker!)

These different systems are fascinating - it still comes down to what any one member feels their risk factor is for that day, doesn't it! But bouncing from one system to another on a day-to-day, or even week-to-week basis would mean not using any system at all.

One more question/comment - your AD is based on going 100%. Splitting it would not give the same results, of course, but would splitting between G and the current favored fund of the AD negate the whole process?

Thanx much, Jason! :)

later @ 10:07 - I'm thinking I got that worng - the part of where to be when - should ALREADY be in place at opening for the base - right? Sheesh -
 
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grandma said:
One more question/comment - your AD is based on going 100%. Splitting it would not give the same results, of course, but would splitting between G and the current favored fund of the AD negate the whole process?-
Click to expand...


I'm not a Birch Tree, but I do believe that under TSP it's difficult to beat the markets while in a Bull trend. I think this system does a great long-term-view job of telling me when not to be invested.


Anyone can choose C, S, or I, I just chose the I-fund so I can have rules built around it. I chose 100% swings just to to use the tracker as a comparison for performance. This system is more designed to catch the "broad View" of the all the markets. You can see from the picture that when a Bear move is real, everything turns red and it's usually all within a few days of each other. In a sideways market I think it's at it's weakest and stands the greatest chance of underperformed the markets, but not by much. I think a reduced allocation would work fine, but also reduce the chance of beating all the markets. I happen to think (based on my previous historical bear markets blog) that this year will have us trading sideways. My goal with this system is to catch the larger trends quickly while reducing whipsaws.


But I've also added the famous Golden Crosses on the 15 minute time frame and it will definitely let us know when this markets headed down.
View attachment 7921
View attachment 7922
 
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I should point out, I'm 36 and still have 7 years to contribute to the TSP under the military. That makes my risk tolerance higher than many our member here.
 
The S&P 100 & 400 appear fine. It's too bad, it would have made for a great buying opportunity for some G-funders... :D
 
JTH,

I appreciate the time you take to point out the particulars of the 1987 crash in your blog. I was a buy-n-holder back then.... mainly in my brokerage account.
 
Gumby said:
JTH,

I appreciate the time you take to point out the particulars of the 1987 crash in your blog. I was a buy-n-holder back then.... mainly in my brokerage account.
Click to expand...

Thanks Gumby, it was a fun exercise. I can't even imagine what it was really like. ;) I learned the importance of stops myself (the hard way) if you recall my shorting the financials...
 
No changes for the Triad and no blog tonight. Except for the Transports closing above the 4 month rising wedge, all charts look the same as my weekend blogs. Yes I expect a pullback, but hey it will happen when it wants to. Also, here's a look at the Big 3 Golden dross on the 15 minute, hourly, and daily charts.

View attachment 7945

View attachment 7946
 
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