JTH's Account Talk

[akpackfan]

Thanks for your response to my inquiry. Do you plan on posting this "bar" chart in your blog?

 

[JTH]

Thanks for your response to my inquiry. Do you plan on posting this "bar" chart in your blog?

I may do that in the future, but for now it's still in beta form. I'm doing further back testing, double checking, and working to filter out additional noise and also trying to come up with ways to shave off a day or two on the buy/sell signals. I'll have it ready in the next week or two, but I want to be sure I've delt with every conceivable market condition.

 

[JTH]

Somewhat encouraging to see us testing the swinging pivot point.

View attachment 7153

 

[JTH]

At this moment (my moments are short) I'm inclined to believe we've put in our higher swing low. Now the question becomes where will the next swing high be? If it's a lower swing high will we form a head & Shoulders?

View attachment 7154

 

[JTH]

EOB Tuesday, my Axial-Drifter system is

45.8% Bullish
23.6% Neutral
30.6% Bearish

(As applied to the 500 S&P 500 stocks)

 

[JTH]

EOB Tuesday, my Axial-Drifter system is

45.8% Bullish
23.6% Neutral
30.6% Bearish

(As applied to the 500 S&P 500 stocks)

EOB Wednesday

45.2% Bullish
21.8% Neutral
33.0% Bearish

 

[Uptrend]

my Axial-Drifter system is

What a name!

 

[JTH]

What a name!

Thanks, it's based on my fondness for the rule of three hence applied to an Axial Pivot, combined with trending or drifting. Yes I know I'm a bit weird...

 

[JTH]

Hello world I am a dummy...

I knew SIRUS (SIRI) was going to report today and I was looking for the pop. That darn work thing got in the way, and I missed the pop. Now I'm riding the train till I get stopped out.


Koo koo ka choo
View attachment 7164

 

[JTH]

EOB Tuesday, my Axial-Drifter system is

45.8% Bullish
23.6% Neutral
30.6% Bearish

(As applied to the 500 S&P 500 stocks)

EOB Wednesday

45.2% Bullish
21.8% Neutral
33.0% Bearish

EOB Thursday

47.0% Bullish
20.6% Neutral
32.4% Bearish

 

[JTH]

[FONT=&quot]Disclaimer: I cannot overstress the significance of understanding and
accepting the fact that all forms of trending and trading systems involve
risk. It's important to comprehend every worst-case SHTF scenario that can
happen to include losing everything you have. As always, a system's past
performance does not guarantee future profits. You take full responsibility
for all trading actions, and should make every effort to understand the
risks involved.

JTH
[/FONT]

 

[JTH]

The Axial-Drifter
Trending System Version 1.0
​

Note: This is the first half of the system. The second half is still under development. It will be a short-intermediate system designed to be invested for short periods while the long term system is out of the markets.

Designed to be an impassive momentum based Triple Exponential Moving Average Crossover System that coordinates nine unique ticker symbols. Its goal is to follow the longer trend and beat the markets, while not running out of transfers. In an effort to remove emotional moments, IFT decisions are based on end of day prices.

As is, this system invest in the I-Fund, using the S-Fund as a backup and the G-Fund for the exit. Three colors are assigned to each indicator. Red=Sell, Green=Buy, Yellow=Hold. A yellow indicator carries no weight in the decision making process. It simply serves as a caution light letting us know the markets may be getting ready to trade sideways, change direction, resume direction or a combination of the three.

Three sets of three indicators are assigned to each of the CSI funds. If 2 of 3 indictors in a fund go red, the fund goes red. If 2 of the three CSI funds go red, the system triggers a sell and exits to the G-Fund.

Inversely, if 2 of 3 indictors in a fund go green, the fund goes green. If 2 of the three CSI funds go green, the system triggers a buy and enters the I-Fund.

If the I-Fund is still on a sell while C&S are on a buy the system enters the S-fund. While in the S-Fund if the I-Fund triggers a buy the system will enter the I-Fund at the end of the month. If IFTs were previously used up, it will wait till the end of the following month to enter the I-Fund. This is done to ensure IFTs are not needlessly wasted. Here are the last 9 signals followed by a sample of what it looks like.

View attachment 7182

View attachment 7180
​

I should point out all trending systems carry their own unique flaws. The Axial-Drifter system does not pick tops or bottoms, it trades based on price pressure applied to momentum with a yellow buffer zone used to filter out oscillating whipsaws. Once enough price pressure has built up, it's flipped the switch and a buy/sell signal is induced.

Disclaimer: I cannot overstress the significance of understanding and accepting the fact that all forms of trending and trading systems involve risk. It's important to comprehend every worst-case SHTF scenario that can happen to include losing everything you have. As always, a system's past
performance does not guarantee future profits. You take full responsibility for all trading actions, and should make every effort to understand the risks involved.

 

[JTH]

The Axial-Drifter remains on a buy and the signal has strengthened today. The S2 indicator went back into a buy from a cautionary yellow.
View attachment 7190

 

[JTH]

The Air is thin up at these levels, so I'm making a quick IFT to G with one IFT ready to deploy when needed.

100%G

View attachment 7194[/QUOTE]

 

[JTH]

In last nights blog I talked about Spike High candlesticks marking a top. Although it could use a little more confirmation, here is an example.

View attachment 7195

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting JTH. Is this your system? I googled it and your post was at the top.

 

[JTH]

Interesting JTH. Is this your system? I googled it and your post was at the top.

Hey I'm famous!!! Those google bots are working hard for you aren't they?

Yes it's my system, but it's really just a tripple EMA crossover with built in redunant safeguards on steroids

 

[Nordic]

The Air is thin up at these levels, so I'm making a quick IFT to G with one IFT ready to deploy when needed.

100%G

View attachment 7194

[/QUOTE]

JTH - Just curious, are you "frontrunning" your new Axial Drifter system by going 100% G even though your system is still in "buy" status? It does appear the SPX might be getting top heavy at this point, I was just wondering what the reasoning behind your move was.

 

[JTH]

No I'm not front running the system, it's still on a buy. The S3 indicator is still on a sell, but other indicators have strengthned up.

I moved for two reasons. For one, the S-Fund was the weakest of the 3 funds on the last pullback and is not as strong as the others during this latest upswing.

I also moved out based on how the Transports and small caps were reacting to levels I was watching. It wasn't a "I see the light" IFT, but I did need to get out of the S-Fund, and I'll be moving over to the I-Fund within a week or 2.

We still have problems in these charts, like the weakness in the small & micro caps, the divergences in the Volume/MACD/RSI/ADX in that they have lower highes. This could continue for lord knows how long, but it is a sign the trend is drying up.

 

[JTH]

15 minute H&S action


View attachment 7226