JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

IF you believe the bear still has teeth, then I have milk & cookies for you.

I won't believe in a bull run, until we break through the red descending trendline and the purple 61.8% 838 Fibonacci retracement level. If we did manage to turn 838 into tested support, I'll be the first to jump in.

A bear could also make a case for 562. Take the 940 peak, the 666 low, and the 61.8% replacement. Now apply those same levels , but make 838 your peak. That would make an 838 peak, 562 low, and a 61.8% 733 retracement.

Stranger things have happened...

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[JTH]

The Feds are coming, the world is ending, run for the hills, hide your women and gold. Dig up the buried ammo and take up arms against your oppressors. Join the Libertarian party and take back the country our Forefathers died for.

Pretty please...


10:59am 60 minute chart
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[Gumby]

The Feds are coming, the world is ending, run for the hills, hide your women and gold. Dig up the buried ammo and take up arms against your oppressors. Join the Libertarian party and take back the country our Forefathers died for.

Pretty please...

You mean the FEDS are not here to help us??
Just who are they trying to help ? Banks, Chinese, Insurance conglometates, car manufacturers, liberals, socialists ? Tell me it ain't so Timmy.

 

[JTH]

It's hard to IFT and get a good price with all this volitility. I hope you get the price you want. Although we still have room to climb here, I want to see 838 become support. Otherwise I'll wait for the mid to low 7s.

11:05 15 min 3 day

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[JTH]

I want to see 838 become support. Otherwise I'll wait for the mid to low 7s.

Thus far 838 has proven to be a hard nut to crack, but I don't need to tell you that, just look at the level of volume at that price YTD.

View attachment 6136

I'll wait for a better opportunity to jump in.

11:00 3-Day 15-min Candlestick price chart with overlaid Stochastics.

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[JTH]

Good morning

Here is a 15 minute chart with SPX bouncing off the 200 SMA & and a 60 minute chart with SPX bouncing off the 50 SMA. Whatever you do, good luck, I'll sit this one out. :cheesy:

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[JTH]

I was busy this morning so I didn't get to post anything. I hope everyone is being careful. This is one of those times where you don't want to be all in or all out.

Good luck

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[JTH]

Good morning everyone

Here is a 7 year comparison chart showing us how bad it was during the previous Bear Market, and how bad it is now.

This is just a simple chart showing the number of S&P 500 stocks above their 50, 150, & 200 Simple moving Averages. My take on this market is simple. There are better setups waiting for us on the downside. On the upside the risk verses reward is too high to chance throwing money in at this point.

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[Gumby]

JTH,

Great post. Thanks for sharing.

 

[JTH]

Thanks Gumby

5 Minute chart drifting to the downside for the moment...

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[JTH]

This might be the first month I havent used up either of my 2 IFTs.

Too bad they don't roll over :toung:

 

[Birchtree]

You must not be very jumpy - has the VIX helped calm you?

 

[JTH]

Let’s be honest here Barry, you aren’t fooling everyone. :toung:


This whole torture thing is backfiring and everyone knows the financial sector is being propped up by mobster-type tactics. This leads us to the whole swine flu fiasco. This Flu story is a welcomed distraction for the Obama Administration and the markets. However, the facts are that thousands of people die from the flu every year regardless of what we do.

While Obama was golfing, his administration broke this story under the guise of capitalizing on a crisis. Pardon me if I’m not buying the hype because I believe this is a ruse being used to scare us into buying off on mandatory health care.

EVERYONE GET YOUR MANDITORY VACCINATIONS!!! What? You don’t want a vaccination? Well then you can’t have free health care! You ate McDonalds last night? Sorry, no health care for you! You smoke? Pay more taxes and no free health care for you!

Don’t believe they can do it? They already are, because if you want your children to attend public school, then they have to receive mandatory vaccinations.

Don’t even get me started on Anthrax …

 

[JTH]

How stupid do you have to be to do a low fly-by in New York City with Airforce 1 & 2 F-16s?

Well duh?

 

[Birchtree]

Maybe he'll do a pee wee herman next.

 

[JTH]

You must not be very jumpy - has the VIX helped calm you?

I don't follow the VIX because it doesn't work for me. I've been sitting in G for most of the month because we have failed to break the dominant larger negitive trend.

Number 180 on the tracker

1st IFT effective EOB today.
60 G
30 F
4 C
3 S
3 I

 

[JTH]

If you can't beat them, join them.

I so enjoy buying at the top, now let's see if I can sell at the bottom.
It's not that I didn't want to buy much earlier, it's that I've been waiting for a dip.

My allocations are weighted on YTD price performance.
G 0%
F 25%
C 15%
S 35%
I 25%

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[nasa1974]

If you can't beat them, join them.

I so enjoy buying at the top, now let's see if I can sell at the bottom.
It's not that I didn't want to buy much earlier, it's that I've been waiting for a dip.

JTH, Your not the only one that bought high yesterday. I talked myself out of waiting one more day.

 

[JTH]

Just to put things in perspective, here is a chart showing the number of S&P 500 stocks above their 50, 150, & 200 SMAs.

View attachment 6253

 

[JTH]

If I am consistent about anything, I'm consistently wrong.


The green lines are the Fibonacci retracement levels from 915.36 (today’s high) to 666.79 I’m likely to bail or buy more if we get below a 50% retracement of 791.075

If history is any indicatory, then our next drop could be hard and fast. But for now the trend is up, and I will stay a bull until we break below the rising channel.

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Month-To-Date Price performance comparisons. For May, EFA is in the lead.


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Current 15 minute chart.

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