JTH's Account Talk

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I'd rather be a Bear and buy back in at lower prices but hey life ain't perfect. We all know the news is bad and the market should die a horrible death. But what we know doesn't matter if we can't use that knowledge to make us some cash.

Price pays and until the channel is broken, there is more money in being a Bull. :rolleyes:

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Good morning :)

I still don't think it's a good time to be in stocks or at the very least I wish we had nimble mobility with our IFTs.

We are still within the trading channel (for now) so I'll sit tight.

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As for price performance, So far this month EFA is in the lead but may get taken over by $SPX.

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On the 15 minute chart, stocks have fallen into the lower channel.

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JTH,

Great charts. If the first chart is a good indication of the S&P then we could see some nice numbers over the next few days. Support is around 908 with resistance near 930. If we stay above 920 to test the upper resistance there could a breakout early next week toward 950 or higher. Thanks for the charts.
 
Thanks NASA, I try to help out where I can. :)

I've been impressed with these shallow retracements on the daily and the 60min channel is still intact.

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Good evening folks


Although I'm invested, I'm still not able to drag myself into the Bull camp. From Oct 07's Peak to Mar 09's Bottom, we've only retraced about 25% of what we've lost.

On the positive side, I'd like to see us reach 943 before rolling back over.

On the negative side we've already begun to roll over and eminent death is on our doorstep... :cool:

Weekly chart
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Birch old bearish friend I'd hate to break it to you, but you may have to acknowledge that 950 is in the cards. And if we can get above 950, than we can make a run for the 38.2% retrace of October 2007's peak. That would take us to 1014.

With the 950 area we have a previous top (yellow line), 200 SMA (red line), descending major trendline (white line), & ascending channel (pink line.) If we stay on course that would put us there next week.

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Good morning everyone

Here are some random thoughts for you. The risk reward ratio for this market implies too much risk for too little reward. Is it worth staying in for a 50 point play to the 200 moving average while timing an End Of Day IFT?

But here is what we don’t know. Will all the money sitting on the sidelines jump in on the next supposed pullback and keep us in the channel? This all reminds me of Lemmings jumping off a cliff despite their eminent water treading death. It’s hard to argue with Mother Nature’s logic because she wins every time, just like Mr. Market does. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lemming


The facts - Despite this morning’s news based scare induced by unexpected profits for the past 9 weeks , we are still in the rising channel until proven otherwise. (60 minute chart)

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SPX 1014.1426 – Here’s a reminder that we could still see a 38.2% retracement from October 07’s high to March 09’s low. At the current rate of ascent that could put us there by mid June. But I’m still looking for a pullback to 881 before we get a push beyond SPX 950 (weekly chart)

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Price pays - and so far this month EFA shows the most potential with a 6.32% gain for the month. (price performance chart)

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Good morning :)

While everyone on the news was getting more bearish last night, I'd like to point out that most of the charts are still above their respective 20SMA.

The Nasdaq 100 still has plently of stocks above its 50, 150, & 200 SMAs and all those charts are above their own individual 20 SMAs. I'll only post one chart showing this, but It's the same picture for the S&P 100, S&P 500 and NYSE.

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Here's a 60 minute view of price performance this month. EFA still maintians its lead over the other funds. I posted this time frame so we could notice the May 11 drop on EFA dropped further than the other funds.

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On $SPX we can see we've fallen into the lower Yellow to Green upper channel. That Green line is my critical support and if it gets broken I may be forced to bail. Like others, I'd like to see 900 hold the line today. Of course with this market, everything is a trap and subject to change on a whim, so be careful & good luck... ;)

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Good morning :)

Looks like a rough day to stay in the markets. :cool:


The Nasdaq fell below the 20SMA and has broken through it's rising price channel.

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If we continue to drop, I wouldn't be surprised to see the leader (EFA) fall into the pack.

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For the moment we are still in the rising channel, so I'll stay in and sit on my hands...

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Good morning :)

We are still within the price channel so it should be an interesting day. I realize the bears are out in full force and many a stock and index fell below their 20SMA, but I'm looking at things objectively with a longer timeframe.

Here is an SPY chart with SPX overlaid in green dots. I did this so I can get a better picture of On Balance volume.
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EFA is still in the lead.
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The SPX stocks above their 50, 150, & 200 SMAs took a big drop. Also, 128 (can't remember the exact number) SPX stocks fell below their 20SMA Wednesday.

Good luck!

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Good morning everyone :)

Damm there's almost nothing better than a good cup of coffee in the morning. And watching the markets is like the cream in coffee. :cheesy:

Based on last nights blogs it sure seems the bears are foaming at the mouth. But hey it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out we need a pullback because the market moving averages have been running flat since the 1st week of May.

This isn't a time to buy, but if I sell then I must be content to be out of the markets till June and I ain't that content. As long as we remain within the rising price channel (and we have) then I will look for a target of 943-950. I realize hardly anyone takes that view, but that doesn't mean I don't agree with them, it just means I look for the unexpected as a potential senerio.

Regardless of how I feel, I have to acknowledge that the S&P 500 HAS NOT closed below the 20SMA since the March bottom breakout.
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I forgot to mention that $EMW fell below AGG, is now in last place, and the only one in the red for the month.
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The number of $SPX stocks above their 50, 150, & 200 SMAs did not retrace more than half of what they lost the previous day.
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I didn't notice it at the time, but the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index had fallen below the trendline on 13 May
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XL-entLady said:
My goodness, J, I am in awe. Good information! Giant happy face! :D

Lady
Click to expand...

Thanks Lady, you are a sweetheart!!!

I'll be posting most of those charts in my blog now. That way folks who want it can find it, and I can pollute my account talk with tripe :D
 
1. Know the trend direction. The trend is always right, until proven wrong.
2. Stay humble. It doesn’t matter if you’re wrong, it matters how long you are wrong.
3. To determine trend direction & strength I use Fibonacci levels


JTH,
You have really made a 'Great Impression'

I thoroughly enjoyed your Blog !! Your writting style is fantastic and equally important is the vast wealth of information you share. You have honestly become one of our greatest contributors and I personally want to THANK YOU.

On your 3 main points:
1. The TREND is everything - and the day to day is totally insignificant in comparsion. So that's the best place to start because chasing a few drops of water blowing in the wind is a fruitless and frustrating journey

2. Stay HUMBLE - Wow this is Beautiful - Always - Always - Always

3. Fibonacci - Good Choice - in fact Excellent Choice; I use that in conjunction with some others but the main thing is getting a good grounding in the Solid Cycles that are proven undeniable


Again EXCELLENT STUFF - thanks again
 
Good morning :)


I’ve changed my allocation this morning, by EOB today I’ll be sitting 33% in the G-fund and 67% in the I-Fund. My allocation change isn’t based on any intel or a “gut feeling” it’s just a little profit taking and position sizing based on the risk vs. reward scenario we have left in this market.

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Futures are down, I don't know what's going to happen, but at least I still have my coffee :)

At the moment I'm pondering a trade down to 886. Why you might ask?
Well for one thing it would make this chart look really cool, and it would also take us down to fill the gap.

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OBTW, Coffee (the trade) is on a 7-month high :D
 
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Yeah, J, your coffee is doing way better than my trees are! {sigh} :cheesy:

BTW, I totally love your blog. Thanks for sharing your cool charts that way!:)

Lady
 
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