JTH's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

As a long term buy and holder it will be interesting to watch myself climb the hallowed steps back to profitability next year. The C fund peaked out at $17.57 and I DCAd it all the way down to $9.20 accumulating multi-hundreds of shares. Now I'll DCA it back to the top providing I keep working. And I know I'll come out smelling like a rose grown in superlative bull manure. Snort.

 

[JTH]

As a long term buy and holder it will be interesting to watch myself climb the hallowed steps back to profitability next year. The C fund peaked out at $17.57 and I DCAd it all the way down to $9.20 accumulating multi-hundreds of shares. Now I'll DCA it back to the top providing I keep working. And I know I'll come out smelling like a rose grown in superlative bull manure. Snort.

Next year will be a good year, at least from the perspective of accumulating more shares. My goals are simple. All I need to do is get back the same number of shares I had during the peak of Oct 2007 and get those shares back before my TSP loan is paid off.

Once my debt is paid off, I'll have more to contribute to my Roth IRA, and once I have that built up, I'll most likely start contributing to TSP again.

Perhaps by then they will have brought back the unlimited IFTs...

 

[Corepuncher]

As a long term buy and holder it will be interesting to watch myself climb the hallowed steps back to profitability next year. The C fund peaked out at $17.57 and I DCAd it all the way down to $9.20 accumulating multi-hundreds of shares. Now I'll DCA it back to the top providing I keep working. And I know I'll come out smelling like a rose grown in superlative bull manure. Snort.

Not if (when) the bond market collapses. The last bubble! KD says he is not using the great depression as the benchmark anymore...he is now using the panic of 1873!

 

[JTH]

If you go directly to the video on Youtube and type in &FMT=18 at the end of the link in the address bar, it will dramatically increase the video's resolution.

Cheers...JTH

Freetradingvideos.com




Grandma Shoots Machine Gun :cheesy:

 

[JTH]

If you go directly to the video on Youtube and type in &FMT=18 at the end of the link in the address bar, it will dramatically increase the video's resolution.

Cheers...JTH

SnP500Trader



Freetradingvideos.com



Gerald Celente Predicts '08 Panic

 

[JTH]

I can't help but to wonder

Everywhere I go, read, and surf, everyone is counting on the Santa rally. IMHO there are far too many people counting on the Santa rally and ignoring both the fundamentals and technicals. And how many times this year have we looked to historical data and been disappointed by this year's outcome?

Sitting all by my lonesome self in the G-Fund :toung:

 

[JTH]

I can't help but to wonder

Everywhere I go, read, and surf, everyone is counting on the Santa rally. IMHO there are far too many people counting on the Santa rally and ignoring both the fundamentals and technicals. And how many times this year have we looked to historical data and been disappointed by this year's outcome?

Sitting all by my lonesome self in the G-Fund :toung:

Get out while you still can. Is this the best this market can do? The long awaited Auto bailout can't even pop this market out of its rising wedge. What good news can you expect for the rest of the year? Nothing, absolutely nothing, horrible fundamentals, and technicals.


Let's look at what the top 20 leaders are invested in, when you combine all their contributions together.

G-Fund 70.2%
F-Fund 7.75%
C-Fund 8.9%
S-Fund 9.65%
I-Fund 3.5%

Cheers... JTH

 

[RunningFool]

I'm still with you. I too cannot figure out what all this economic rebound is supposed to be based on. Bank failures, Major corporation failures, Governments around the world trying to prop up the currencies, Everyone printing money likes its toilet paper, Worldwide unemployment increasing. Just because some chart formation says that we should go up in the face of all this economic disaster, I just don't get it. I have to admit that I am tempted to jump back into the fray as the market creeps up but I just can't see how things can go up much with all the bad news. It seems to me to be a house of cards. I'm sure I don't know.

 

[Guest2]

The Market currently trades and looks forward 6 - 9 months in advance of
current economic reports and earnings. Thats why you'll hear the market
didn't drop on bad news, because it was already priced in. But some even
think that investors have priced in a "depression", not just a deep recession.
If thats true AND we see better then expected "bad news", it makes sense
that the market would rally each time we're surprised with good "bad" news.
On the other hand, if the news is worse then expected, the market seems
to fall off a cliff. The VIX is trending down and stability is slowly creeping back
in. I don't know about a Santa Rally happening unless someone other then
Walmart can perform a minor miracle. But I'm hopeful !:embarrest:

 

[Birchtree]

Look at EAT today - with gasoline prices continuing to drop the restaurant service sector will begin a turn around. That's a start to consumer spending. Exports will soothe the depth of the Q4 GDP as the dollar declines - the economic situation is improving.

 

[justbizness45]

I'm still with you. I too cannot figure out what all this economic rebound is supposed to be based on. Bank failures, Major corporation failures, Governments around the world trying to prop up the currencies, Everyone printing money likes its toilet paper, Worldwide unemployment increasing. Just because some chart formation says that we should go up in the face of all this economic disaster, I just don't get it. I have to admit that I am tempted to jump back into the fray as the market creeps up but I just can't see how things can go up much with all the bad news. It seems to me to be a house of cards. I'm sure I don't know.

Live With Oscar's, Oscar explained the holiday rally mentality some in his first vid after Thanksgiving. He says it almost always happens and the market corrects withing the first few days after the rally. I am mostly on the lilly pad 98%G. This insanity will probably continue to defy logic for the rest of the year and then tank when reality sets in. I don't think the bull is quite here yet. JB45

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=MAGnaQseATc

 

[JTH]

I don't think the bull is quite here yet. JB45

I swear all these TV traders are trying to convience me the bull is here, so they can sucker us in so they can sell us out and make up what they lost.

 

[JTH]

Stuck in the middle…?

If I hear the word “Santa Rally” on TV one more time, I think I’m going to hurl. Sometimes there is such a thing as too much knowledge. The news has a way of softening the impact of events and if everyone expects Santa will he ever come?

Some interesting things I noticed. We haven’t closed above 920 in six weeks. It kind of reminds of a Seal stuck in the water under a frozen ceiling of ice. The Seal keeps bumping into the frozen ice, gasping for air. If it doesn’t find a hole in the ice, then it will eventually drown.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=14&id=p91314943154

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=0&mn=1&dy=14&id=p64327585215

Looking at the weekly chart, volume from the last two weeks is virtually identical. If we could trade in real time, then in the last 2 weeks we’ve been stuck between 851 & 919. The median of these two numbers is 885, and we closed today at 888

End of day prices tell the same story for us TSPers, only the trading range is tighter. The last two weeks put us in a trading range of 914 & 857. The median of these two numbers is 885, and we closed today at 888.

Here’s the point. We closed today in the middle of the trading channel, meaning this market still hasn’t picked a direction…

 

[justbizness45]

I swear all these TV traders are trying to convience me the bull is here, so they can sucker us in so they can sell us out and make up what they lost.

I watched a little of Cramer last night. He is trying to get his CramerNation buying the "Santa Rally" also. :suspicious:

 

[justbizness45]

Some interesting things I noticed. We haven’t closed above 920 in six weeks. It kind of reminds of a Seal stuck in the water under a frozen ceiling of ice. The Seal keeps bumping into the frozen ice, gasping for air. If it doesn’t find a hole in the ice, then it will eventually drown.

Good analogy. Come 1/5/09 if think this market will also be gsping for air.

 

[JTH]

Good analogy. Come 1/5/09 if think this market will also be gsping for air.

No sign of the Santa rally yet, unless you count the F-Fund going down for 3 trading days in a row? Perhaps this is a good sign for those invested in stocks?

Best of the rest of the year to all of you playing for a strong finish! As for me, I'm in G :cheesy:

 

[JTH]

2008 Year in review...

Finished -14.89%

Due to a deployment, I was in the I fund from Sep 07 to Feb 08

Worst was -18.38%

Best was -3.03%

Next year's goal... Beat the G-Fund

 

[nnuut]

2008 Year in review...

Finished -14.89%

Due to a deployment, I was in the I fund from Sep 07 to Feb 08

Worst was -18.38%

Best was -3.03%

Next year's goal... Beat the G-Fund

Beat the "G", I'd settle for that right now!!

 

[JTH]

My ode to Obama :toung:

"I Believe I Can Fly"

I used to think that I could not go on
And life was nothing but an awful song
But now I know the meaning of true love
I'm leaning on the everlasting arms

If I can see it, then I can do it
If I just believe it, there's nothing to it

I believe I can fly
I believe I can touch the sky
I think about it every night and day
Spread my wings and fly away
I believe I can soar
I see me running through that open door
I believe I can fly
I believe I can fly
I believe I can fly

See I was on the verge of breaking down
Sometimes silence can seem so loud
There are miracles in life I must achieve
But first I know it starts inside of me, oh

If I can see it, then I can do it
If I just believe it, there's nothing to it

 

[Birchtree]

There's more cash available to buy shares than at any time in almost two decades, a sign to some of the most successful investors that equities will rebound after the worst year for US stocks since the Great Depression. Consumers are receiving about $500 billion from falling gasoline prices and the lowest fixed mortgage rates in 50 years. This move off the bottom may be real quick.