JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

I'm taking tomorrow off.

Beer-O-Clock will start early tonight.

I'm now down 230 S&P 500 points. :worried:

I'm sharpening my Axe because before long there will be blood in the streets and heads will role.

There isn't any point in my bailing out now, I'm too far down the rabbit hole without any IFTs left. I'd get out, but I don't want to be sitting in G when/if this market recovers. Perhaps in November I can use my 30% G to buy some cheap stocks.

Bloody bloody bloody 7 trading days this October.

 

[TradingJoe]

Thanks JTH for showing me. Another horrible day. I looked at October 1987 SPX and this month is shaping up to be a repeat. The other thing I noticed that the downward slide continued to the end of November 1987 with a tiny blip upwards at the end of October! Fast forward, we are in the middle of October and continue to wait for the turnaround, which may not come this month. On the other hand, we had a horrible September so, maybe the turnaround will be soon. Thinking of the time shift. Stay in 100% or go to G? I feel like a deer frozen in the middle of the road staring into car headlights, not knowing what is going to hit me. I cannot look at my TSP account balance. IFT limits really doing a number on us!

 

[JTH]

Thanks JTH for showing me. Another horrible day. I looked at October 1987 SPX and this month is shaping up to be a repeat. The other thing I noticed that the downward slide continued to the end of November 1987 with a tiny blip upwards at the end of October! Fast forward, we are in the middle of October and continue to wait for the turnaround, which may not come this month. On the other hand, we had a horrible September so, maybe the turnaround will be soon. Thinking of the time shift. Stay in 100% or go to G? I feel like a deer frozen in the middle of the road staring into car headlights, not knowing what is going to hit me. I cannot look at my TSP account balance. IFT limits really doing a number on us!

I hear ya, If I had unlimited IFTs I'd already be out of this market days ago. Fracken TSP board can go to hell, I hate them bastards and my only hope is that they lost more money in their personal accounts then I have. :cheesy:

 

[JTH]

It's Beer-O-Clock and the beer flowith over my cup.

What an utter disaster. I wish I could extract all my money out of TSP and put it in my ROTH where I stand a fighting chance of making a recovery. I've lost more money in the last week, then I've contributed over the last 2 years.

Nothing is working, the Fundamentals, the Technicals, are not in play and I just feel like the biggest loser for not having the guts to stay out of this market when I was -3% in May.

I'm young and can recover, but I just feel horrible for people like my dad who are going to retire in the next 5 years.

 

[nasa1974]

It's Beer-O-Clock and the beer flowith over my cup.

What an utter disaster. I wish I could extract all my money out of TSP and put it in my ROTH where I stand a fighting chance of making a recovery. I've lost more money in the last week, then I've contributed over the last 2 years.

Nothing is working, the Fundamentals, the Technicals, are not in play and I just feel like the biggest loser for not having the guts to stay out of this market when I was -3% in May.

I'm young and can recover, but I just feel horrible for people like my dad who are going to retire in the next 5 years.

YEP!!! It is called panic.

 

[Birchtree]

If you don't move your money you've only experienced a devaluation and your current shares will eventually appreciate again - in the meantime continue to accumulate more of these devalued shares because now your contribution is really working in your favor.

 

[JTH]

Good morning everyone!

I hope all is well among my fellow TSPers. I've taken a breather for the last few days, probably because I am in the numb phase of the markets emotional curve.

Tsk tsk, it really is sad how my expectations for the year have dramatically dropped. At this point I don't expect the Market to reach 1100, and I need 1140 to break even for the month.

So somebody tell me why I'm still in this market? Even if it hits 1100 this year, I still have to time it just right to reap the rewards.

Ok I'm done whining now, thanks for listening. :cheesy:

 

[turbo23dog]

I'm riding this just the same. Don't want to make a panic induced move and have optimism that we'll ride though these declines and come out better than expected in the long run. My only concern is that I'm on an 8 year timeline so I'm feeling the urge to do something.... must resist.

 

[justbizness45]

JTH and Turbo, I also have been hammered numb. The only recourse I see is to buy as many shares as possible at these prices. DCA like crazy. Two or three years from now it will be a memory. Turbo if you are on a eight year horizon IMO you need to be making the max catchup contributions if you can (age 50 or over) . These are 2004 prices and they can't last forever. JMHO guys, not expert financial advice.

 

[TradingJoe]

JTH and Turbo, I also have been hammered numb. The only recourse I see is to buy as many shares as possible at these prices. DCA like crazy. Two or three years from now it will be a memory. Turbo if you are on a eight year horizon IMO you need to be making the max catchup contributions if you can (age 50 or over) . These are 2004 prices and they can't last forever. JMHO guys, not expert financial advice.

Thanks, I feel better. Chin up! DCA away with a smile to keep the other person feeling postive too.

 

[justbizness45]

Thanks, I feel better. Chin up! DCA away with a smile to keep the other person feeling postive too.

Here is the bottom line for my experience during this market:
10/9/07 My TSP account peaked as did the C fund and I had "X" number of shares.

From then until until April 08 I DCA'd without knowing that was what it's called.

April 08 - Oct 01 2008. I continued to contribute and made a small gain overall during this period about 4% using the IFT limits.

10/1/08 on, due to losses I am DCAing again until price rises. I have 20% less dollar value in my account than I did in Oct 07 but I have 16% more shares. So when the market recovers and it will; I will be better off overall. Be proud Birch I'm learning.:toung: Calcs like this make me feel more comfortable about my declining balance because I am increasing shares and I will contribute the max 20,500 by the last payday this year. Hope this helps, it helped me doing the calcs.

 

[350zCommTech]

JTH and Turbo, I also have been hammered numb. The only recourse I see is to buy as many shares as possible at these prices. DCA like crazy. Two or three years from now it will be a memory. Turbo if you are on a eight year horizon IMO you need to be making the max catchup contributions if you can (age 50 or over) . These are 2004 prices and they can't last forever. JMHO guys, not expert financial advice.

Thanks, I feel better. Chin up! DCA away with a smile to keep the other person feeling postive too.

Here is something to think about. During the previous recession, the S&P declined for 3 straight years. Sure, there were huge rallies along the way, but the overall trend was down. The scary part this time around is that some people are skipping the recession and going right to a depression. Whether they are right or not, I have a feeling that what ever is coming is going to much worst than the previous recession. We are only in the first year.:worried:

So, I'm not a big fan of DCA or buy and hold.

 

[Frozen]

Here is the bottom line for my experience during this market:
10/9/07 My TSP account peaked as did the C fund and I had "X" number of shares.

From then until until April 08 I DCA'd without knowing that was what it's called.

April 08 - Oct 01 2008. I continued to contribute and made a small gain overall during this period about 4% using the IFT limits.

10/1/08 on, due to losses I am DCAing again until price rises. I have 20% less dollar value in my account than I did in Oct 07 but I have 16% more shares. So when the market recovers and it will; I will be better off overall. Be proud Birch I'm learning.:toung: Calcs like this make me feel more comfortable about my declining balance because I am increasing shares and I will contribute the max 20,500 by the last payday this year. Hope this helps, it helped me doing the calcs.

Yes, but wouldn't you have more shares had you been buying into the G fund all this time and covert those to (whatever: C or S) today? Your dollar cost per share has been dropping, so those dollars would buy more shares had you not been investing in the equity funds this year.

 

[justbizness45]

So, I'm not a big fan of DCA or buy and hold.

Thanks 350z, not my first choice either. I am unwilling at this point to realize the loss and miss the rally that is due to being so severely oversold. So I will DCA for awhile and hopefully not be too sorry.

 

[JTH]

Here is something to think about. During the previous recession, the S&P declined for 3 straight years. Sure, there were huge rallies along the way, but the overall trend was down. The scary part this time around is that some people are skipping the recession and going right to a depression. Whether they are right or not, I have a feeling that what ever is coming is going to much worst than the previous recession. We are only in the first year.:worried:

So, I'm not a big fan of DCA or buy and hold.

You make some great points. We are in the early stages of the downtrend and 2009/10 are likely to be a wash. In times like this, under TSP's restrictions, I'd be smarter to stay in G and gain the guaranteed money.

 

[justbizness45]

Yes, but wouldn't you have more shares had you been buying into the G fund all this time and covert those to (whatever: C or S) today? Your dollar cost per share has been dropping, so those dollars would buy more shares had you not been investing in the equity funds this year.

Don't get me wrong, I am not a DCA or buy and hold advocate. If I had been in G for this period we wouldn't be having this discussion. MY point is if you have been hammered (-22% this month) and you think the market will rise up then DCA is the only option IMO. If you think the market will continue to tank then G may be a better choice. I still think we will a 1050 or above upside before the next big drop and that's where I am placing my bet. :blink:

 

[JTH]

I still think we will a 1050 or above upside before the next big drop and that's where I am placing my bet. :blink:

I hear ya! If you offered me 1050, I'd take it and happily enjoy the 110 point loss

 

[TradingJoe]

I hear ya! If you offered me 1050, I'd take it and happily enjoy the 110 point loss

Sorry to borrow your thread, talking heads on CNBC this say that bottom may be near and we may go up towards OPX week. Sorry about the comment I made yesterday in my own thread, it was stupid - we're in this together and we'll come out of this together. So its possible that we can see 1050 soon.

 

[JTH]

Sorry to borrow your thread,

Feel free to drop by anytime. The great thing about CNBC, is the smart ones (the ones I like) admit the don't have a clue what this market will do next. My own opinion is that we won't see 1100 untill next year.

 

[CountryBoy]

Feel free to drop by anytime. The great thing about CNBC, is the smart ones (the ones I like) admit the don't have a clue what this market will do next. My own opinion is that we won't see 1100 untill next year.

I agree with 350Z in that this is just the first year. I've read that a lot of ARM's are still left to reset in 2009 and 2010. I just don't see much upside trend until mid to late 2010, except for the occasional bear rally.

CB