JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Opps, I slept in this morning and missed the IFT deadline.

I'l go ahead and state the obvious.

The last time we had a 3 dar drop (5 Aug) in the SPX it was followed by a 30 point gain!!!

The last 3 day drop before that was followed by another 30 point gain!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p34313051763

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks man, was just closing off.

Much appreciated.

Later dude.

 

[JTH]

Did anyone notice todays F fund closing price is the highest year to date?

So what does this mean with the traditional inverse relationship to the C & S?

Maybe it's time for F to drop and C & S to get out of this trading channel?

Or maybe it's time to complete it's head and shoulders?

And what about that I with 3 negitive months in a row?

 

[JTH]

Holy poo poo!!!

Look at EFA!!!

[SIZE=-1]AGG[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Ishares Leh Agg F[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100.95[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+0.28[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+0.28%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]EFA[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Ishares Msci Eafe[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]60.25[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-2.08[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-3.34%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]^DWCPF[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Dow Jones Wilshir[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]574.70[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-12.36[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-2.11%)[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]..[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]^GSPC[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]In[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]1249.67[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-25.31[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-1.99%)[/SIZE]


[SIZE=-1].[/SIZE]

 

[JTH]

Folks you need to be concerned!!!

As of the time of this post,

EFA has lost over 5% MTD
$EMW lost over 3%
S&P love 2.5%

Not sure if this is the time to catch a bottom

 

[JTH]

Here is a chart I made at the end of Augest.

The long red & green lines are the monthly pivot points.

The short red & green lines are the weekly piviot points from last week.

The blue lines are represent the number of open, closes, highs, and lows over the last three months.

Not much keeping us from going to 1200 level, cash is king... :suspicious:

[SIZE=-1]1243.57[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-31.41[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-2.46%)[/SIZE]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=DAILY&b=5&g=0&id=p06112374457

 

[JTH]

I know some of you are starting to make your way down the rabbit hole and just how deep it goes, nobody knows. From mid may through June, I followed the rabbit hole almost all the way down and lost over 7%, all the while clinging to the hope...

I'm an ever humble student of this market and I only hope that none of you do the same thing I did in June...

And just for the record, I'm not preaching to anybody, I'm -8.49% YTD

 

[JTH]

I've stuck my head in the rabbit hole today. I've Ift'd 75 into S. I could have just as easily chose C or a mix of both, but I chose S because it has shown the most strength over the months and I'm following the winner.

If we go down and re-test support at 555, then I may go all in. If we break support, then I'll look for a graceful exit.

I'll try to exit and take my gains off the table at 590 which should be strong resistance. I still have one IFT left and I'd like to use it for F, should things go sour in stocks after a mini rally.

Timing is everything and I hope to make this a good month.

Good luck everyone

 

[JTH]

CNBC has an EFT show coming on tonight. It's probably basic dumbed down EFT investing, but that means I can get my wife to watch it with me

 

[justbizness45]

I'll try to exit and take my gains off the table at 590 which should be strong resistance. I still have one IFT left and I'd like to use it for F, should things go sour in stocks after a mini rally.

Are you still considering F after the Fannie/Freddie takeover? :worried:

 

[JTH]

Are you still considering F after the Fannie/Freddie takeover? :worried:

Good question.

Truth is I have to re-evaluate my exit plan for my 2nd IFT. I'm not nearly as smart on F as others are, as I generally just follow it's channel. For a while it was always trading between 11.96 - 12.22, but now it's extended past it's trading channel.

What a week and weekend with too many unanswered questions leading into Monday morning. Although I may, I'd hate to bail Monday with all this recent news already baked in.

Good luck to you and everyone else invested, this could be a pivotal week, question is which direction?

 

[justbizness45]

Good question.

I'm not nearly as smart on F as others are, as I generally just follow it's channel.

I haven't run into anyone yet that really understands or researches F. Maybe because compared to stocks it moves really slowly. If the market is going up hard Monday I will probably bail prior to turn around Tuesday. Unless I can find a reason to stick it out. I need to make 15% a year to reach my goals so if I can manage 1 - 2% a month I can make it. Anyway good luck to all next week. JB45

 

[JTH]

Monday mornings can get busy for me at work, so I've made my IFT in advance.

G-Fund 79
S-Fund 21

My goal is to break even this year. To do that I need to make about 2.13% per month. If I meet this goal today, then I may pull the rest back to G-Fund tomorrow.

Good luck everyone...

 

[JTH]

I'm somewhat dissipointed the S-Fund hasn't been able to reach 590. I wanted it to pierce through, so it could perhaps provide support for the day.

It's going to be a long day...

 

[JTH]

Changed my allocation. As a general rule, I'm trying not to stay more then 50% invested.

G-Fund 50
F-Fund 25
S-Fund 25

I don't think the S-fund is going to meet my target today, but we may get some follow through tomorrow. I bought in at a good price and I'm willing to see it through.

As for the F-fund, it the market does tank, then there may be a flight to quality, so I'm hedging my bets...

Good luck everyone, it's going to be a tight trade today...

 

[JTH]

You know it's a good thing I have a great sence of humor, otherwise I'd be upsett that I bought 25% into the F-Fund on a day it peaks at an all time high. :cheesy:

Such is life, when you roll the dice sometimes they fall off the table...

 

[luv2read]

F fund might not be the best bet for safety...bonds may drop..takeover means more government debt.

 

[JTH]

F fund might not be the best bet for safety...bonds may drop..takeover means more government debt.

Thanks, and your point is well taken, this was a huge contraian move and I'm just following the dumb money. I'm likely to sell it off today and hold unto the 25% S a little longer. Today should be interesting, but tomorrow will be what I'm really waiting for...

 

[JTH]

Good morning everyone

I'm still holding 25% S-fund. I'll hold on to it untill I have a rational reason to let it go.


I'm in it to win it...

 

[JTH]

Will the bottom hold?

At this point I could care less if it doesn't.

BRING ON THE PAIN!!!