JTH's Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
Transports at 6038 for a new all time high - is there a top this year or do we wait for several more years before this index peaks out.
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Redrawing the Fibonacci levels over key areas of support & resistance we could hypothetically project a 6090 price objective. I could envision this happening over the next 2 days.

View attachment 22728
 
JTH said:
In the short-term we have a 1525 triple top, with 3 touches on both sides of an ascending triangle. If you believe this is an ascending triangle then the price objective would be 1555.
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Same overall situation as the previous post, with an 800 Price Objective for a 1.6% gain from current levels. While the math is sound it looks like a meal to big for my eyes to digest...

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Bquat said:
So we're in agreement. You didn't peek did you.:D
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Yes I did peak, but honestly when I'm drawing charts, I block out everything else, perhaps your chart was in my subconscious, I like to think we don't write the material, just connect the dots and the charts draw themselves. :)
 
27 Feb:
JTH said:
As for my strategy in March, I may make an exit mid 1st week, or late 3rd week, with a re-entry early in the 4th week. All of this is dependent on how the story unfolds.
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This is a tough spot for me to adjust to, without a 3rd IFT to play out my ideal strategy, I may be forced to take smaller gains this month, in favor of the overall view. For some reason a March 6th turn date keeps popping up on many of my charts in both time, price and perspective. What I don't know is...

1. Is it a turn date?
2. If it is will it be a pullback?
3. Or is it the beginning the the bull run that gets us to 1550?

There are other consideration such as Triple Witching on the 15th, and the markets will be closed on the 29th. For personal considerations, it's important for others to know that the higher my YTD returns, the more likely I am to scale off risk, so if you are trailing on the AT and following me, you may not be served well. I'm only beating the S-Fund by .19% if I make one mistake I'll be getting slaughtered by all the S-Funders just below me, I swear it feels like they are just waiting to feed on my carcass...
 
JimmyJoe said:
Perhaps, but. With the looming all time high for the SPX, peoples will continue to buy.. Today.
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Most of the technical traders got out at the top of the channel, with the late commers keeping prices level. Tomorrow is likely to be a flat day, it will be more important to establish a higher level of support, likely at 1535. Chasing the money at curent levels is ill advised.
 
JTH said:
Most of the technical traders got out at the top of the channel, with the late commers keeping prices level. Tomorrow is likely to be a flat day, it will be more important to establish a higher level of support, likely at 1535. Chasing the money at curent levels is ill advised.
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JTH, maybe you're right about chasing these levels but 1547 is my level of support. Just too tempting to buyers. I think today, 1547 SPX. Anyway, we're climbin, for the day, for the week, for the rest of the month, year. New conceptions of stock prices will emerge.
 
JTH said:
Most of the technical traders got out at the top of the channel, with the late commers keeping prices level. Tomorrow is likely to be a flat day, it will be more important to establish a higher level of support, likely at 1535. Chasing the money at curent levels is ill advised.
Click to expand...

I didn't see dumb money fill in liked I had hoped this afternoon. You may be right, especially with the potential for poor news compared to today.
 
As I've already said, I expect Wednesday to be a flat day +/- .25% anything greater than 1% and I'd advise timers to take the money off the table. Enjoy it while it last and be prepared to book profits, these conditions could last any length of time, but when these markets turn (and they will) they will do what they always do; fool the most amount of people long enough to scalp them into the red...

Putting on a realistic perspective the average of these 11 percentile gains is 4.5% add another 1% to the current 3.5% top and that gets you to 1555. If you are attempting to time this market, then this is a realistic projection of where the markets should go as many others including myself think the 1550-1575 area is a place from which we should begin booking profits.

View attachment 22758


Also consider the March Monthly Stats for the TSP funds over the previous 12 years. The average for positive months only in the CSI funds is 3.16%/3.79%/3.26%

View attachment 22757
 
JimmyJoe said:
JTH, maybe you're right about chasing these levels but 1547 is my level of support. Just too tempting to buyers. I think today, 1547 SPX. Anyway, we're climbin, for the day, for the week, for the rest of the month, year. New conceptions of stock prices will emerge.
Click to expand...

You should lay off the birch-juice. Its heady effects have been the woe of many a man!
 
JTH said:
As I've already said, I expect Wednesday to be a flat day +/- .25% anything greater than 1% and I'd advise timers to take the money off the table. Enjoy it while it last and be prepared to book profits, these conditions could last any length of time, but when these markets turn (and they will) they will do what they always do; fool the most amount of people long enough to scalp them into the red.../QUOTE]

So when are you going to call this high???
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JTH, first off, thanks for sharring all your insights!

Question, if you did not have a second IFT left to play with in Mar, and you were not protectecting a sweet AT%, would you agree that staying invested would be prudent for a longer while? I went out end of Feb and back in monday.

Thanks,
Danny
 
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