jpcavin's Account Talk

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Agree.. The person who operates indicators is most important. Can't use just one. Need to be complimentary. Cross overs are helpful but so are candlestick reading and even looking at the wicks and how they do or do not touch certain Moving Averages. Overall short-term trend of market (i.e past month or so) to the overall market (looking at past 10 years). Some indicators are strengthened when paired with others (MACD and Slow Stochastic), but the settings are important too. Bollinger bands. Slopes of those bands and of the MAs and the other indicators. NEWS is a big indicator. So is seasonality and sentiment. Also charts on various sectors of the market. I have only been reading this stuff since around April 2013 and have learned a lot.

But mostly what I have learned is that no one can truly predict what will happen the next day, indicators are just that and cannot predict the future, experts on TV can't reliably predict the future either and some of them are perpetually bullish because that is how they make their money. I am always cautious of those that say you should be buying and holding as many did in December and January. They talk about long term in terms of getting back those losses in a few years. True that will happen as we are reportedly in a secular long-term bull market (lasting 30-40 years). But if you are wanting to retire soon that does not work out well and also, why lose if you do not have to. To me a loss now is a lost gain because you could have been buying in at the bottom instead of riding it down to now need to work to make it up.

Having a stop loss strategy that gets you out no matter how hopeful you are is very important. I am working to get emotion out of my entry and exits.... its tough and no I have not yet met that goal but I am trying. Trying to rely on my indicators but also on news/current environment, and today I can say I exited because Slow Stochastic was getting ready to touch 80 and while we may have a few more up days. The overall trend has been a downtrend so now that we are near the 20MA, it might be time for the market to drop back down before making a lower low. I know that sounds pessimistic but I am just going based on what is on the charts (as I see them of course). Gosh .... going on and on....

Okay JTH... you started me on a soap box but time to get off... lunch is over!!! :D
 
Just for clarification: The MACD is not the only indicator that I use. I was merely pointing out the different settings that I am currently looking at within MACD. I use many more indicators as well. None of them have really helped me any but I still keep looking for clues. :nuts: I share so that others with more know how and experience can either debunk it or point out it's value. I look forward to any input regarding these settings. They were suggested by Martin Pring, by the way. If you are familiar with Pring's work, what are your thoughts?
 
Well, I guess I am not a good market whisperer. Nothing left to do except go home and play some online poker and lose some of my millions in chip currency. :cheesy:

jpcavin said:
I am willing the markets to close positive. I could use a little help here. :arms::arms::arms::arms:
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jpcavin said:
Just for clarification: The MACD is not the only indicator that I use. I was merely pointing out the different settings that I am currently looking at within MACD. I use many more indicators as well. None of them have really helped me any but I still keep looking for clues. :nuts: I share so that others with more know how and experience can either debunk it or point out it's value. I look forward to any input regarding these settings. They were suggested by Martin Pring, by the way. If you are familiar with Pring's work, what are your thoughts?
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Hi! Just wanted to let you know I was addressing JTHs comments. In any case, i think its interesting that you are using different MACD settings. What charting site are you using to do this? Stockcharts?

I've never used different settings on MACD. I usually just use default settings and use Slow Stochastic and MACD. I read some on using those two together on Investopedia.

But to decide on whether to use any indicator, and how to use it, I like to see how the indicator would have worked to keep one out of the market during past crashes or in during upswings. I do this by just eyeballing the charts, prices, ups and downs in comparison to the indicator. I look for patterns and correlations. No automated back testing, but I do back test visually to many past periods.

I write down my observations and then develop the strategy for using that indicator in that way. Sometimes I find an indicator doesn't seem to have any reliable correlation to price action, or rather i should say there is no correlation that provides a tradable signal (entry or exit).... Example..RSI. Maybe I just am not knowledgeable enough about that indicator, but I've read on it and then observed many periods and just do not find it that helpful.

Well...I am now trying to start reviewing the RSIStochastic, ROC, OBV, and Accumulation/distribution, etc. so much to review, so little time!!!

Best Wishes to You and Everyone!!!!! :smile:

P.S. Now I want to look at those MACD settings you mentioned, but I must put it on the list! :D
 
DBA, I was clarifying my previous statement because I did not elaborate very much and I wanted to make sure I didn't mislead anyone into thinking I use the MACD by itself or that I was suggesting they do the same. To answer your question, I use Stockcharts. I like ROC a lot and currently looking into the ADX and CCI as well. The below article is where I got the idea for the different MACD settings.

MoneyShow.com: TIPS FOR TRADERS - Pring’s MACD Parameters Produce Profits

JTH makes a valid point about the need to use the right indicator for market conditions (i.e. oscillating vs trending).
 
I bought UWTI@1.37 on 2/11 . Not sure what to do now. :worried: Do you guys think oil it will continue up based on summer seasonality or do you think this is a short term rally?
 
Looks like you got a great entry, but I'm not sure where your cost basis is.

Looks like a rising .33 training stop should keep you in the game long enough to turn a profit, I'd be happy to turn a profit above 1.90
 
JTH said:
Looks like you got a great entry, but I'm not sure where your cost basis is.

Looks like a rising .33 training stop should keep you in the game long enough to turn a profit, I'd be happy to turn a profit above 1.90
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Thanks Jason. My cost basis is 1.3759. I decided to hold and see what tomorrow brings. Right now it's at 1.79 (5.92%) after hours. Hopefully it works in my favor tomorrow. It's about time something did. :smile:
 
That is Great JPC!!!! Oh...I just love your new avatar!!!! I love that cute little paw sticking out!!! Niiinnnnjjjjaaaa girl!!! :laugh:
jpcavin said:
Thanks Jason. My cost basis is 1.3759. I decided to hold and see what tomorrow brings. Right now it's at 1.79 (5.92%) after hours. Hopefully it works in my favor tomorrow. It's about time something did. :smile:
Click to expand...
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
That is Great JPC!!!! Oh...I just love your new avatar!!!! I love that cute little paw sticking out!!! Niiinnnnjjjjaaaa girl!!! :laugh:
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Thanks DBA! I used to be someone's kitten. Now I'm just a Ninja Cat. Hey, at least I get to wear a cool outfit....and I can still wag my tail. :cheesy:
 
jpcavin said:
Thanks Jason. My cost basis is 1.3759. I decided to hold and see what tomorrow brings. Right now it's at 1.79 (5.92%) after hours. Hopefully it works in my favor tomorrow. It's about time something did. :smile:
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Looks great, with a strong gap on the open, I'm thinking sellers will step in at the 1.91 to 2.00 level. The monthly on this thing looks horrible...
 
JTH said:
Looks great, with a strong gap on the open, I'm thinking sellers will step in at the 1.91 to 2.00 level. The monthly on this thing looks horrible...
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LOL, yeah I know. I have a tight trailing stop loss on it and I will still be in the money if it triggers. Hopefully I get some free time later to intervene at a higher price point if possible.
 
jpcavin said:
LOL, yeah I know. I have a tight trailing stop loss on it and I will still be in the money if it triggers. Hopefully I get some free time later to intervene at a higher price point if possible.
Click to expand...

Wish I was in it with you, but alas I'm not actively trading at the moment, until I decide I deserve to play again...
 
jpcavin said:
LOL, yeah I know. I have a tight trailing stop loss on it and I will still be in the money if it triggers. Hopefully I get some free time later to intervene at a higher price point if possible.
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Oops! Spoke too soon. Stop Loss triggered a sale for UWTI @1.76. Not sure what I made on this trade but my overall return is 17.96% so I'm happy. :banana:
 
Last edited:
jpcavin said:
Oops! Spoke too soon. Stop Loss triggered a sale for UWTI @1.76. Not sure what I made on this trade but my overall return is 17.96% so I'm happy. :banana:
Click to expand...

Glad to see, I was wondering if you got stopped out on the gap fill, those types of ETFs move so fast, it's damm easy to lose the trade, so great play!
 
JTH said:
Glad to see, I was wondering if you got stopped out on the gap fill, those types of ETFs move so fast, it's damm easy to lose the trade, so great play!
Click to expand...

I know. Thanks for reminding me about the trailing stop loss. Glad it was in place or I would have lost all my good gains. I have a bad habit of holding for bigger gains and it never materializes. :eek:
 
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