jpcavin's Account Talk

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Hi jp. Neither, as my history shows. If I pull all back to safety, I will not get back in at the proper time. Guess I'm just a Birtcher.:D

Best of luck to all.
 
jpcavin said:
FAB, FAB, FAB
You forget I know nothing about the market. All these analysis and graphs that everyone posts may as well be in Mandarin. They mean nothing to me. I just go where the mood moves me. Haven't you figured that out already? Ignorance is bliss. ;)
Click to expand...
I love this quote. Are you being ironic here? Especilly from one that is 12th on the tracker. Congrates

Bill
 
Like Cramer sometimes says (I don't know if he's saying it today I don't have tv) buy, buy, buy.

My TSP is all in, can't do the actual loss math because I can't stand to look that closely at the damage right now, but it is severe that's all I need to know.

I did buy SCHA (S fund equivalent) at my online brokerage today because it's the lowest I've seen it in a long time and it's all the cash I had left. Needless to say the rest of my positions there are also underwater except for MSFT and an REIT is down but can still see the surface.

I wish I had more money, but you work with what you got.
 
Bquat said:
I love this quote. Are you being ironic here? Especilly from one that is 12th on the tracker. Congrates

Bill
Click to expand...

You'd think I was being ironic. Truth be told, when I wrote that just a few days ago I knew nothing. But JTH made a comment about some people at the top not contributing and it made me feel bad that I was not able to contribute. That got me motivated to learn a thing or two so that my moves would be based on my choices and not what the "top performers" were doing.
I still don't know anything about charts and numbers (support/resistance), etc but I found a very easy system to follow by reading "Technical Analysis: Power Tools for Active Investors" by Gerald Appel. Wish I could have shared it earlier, although I'm not sure how much importance anyone would have given it. :)
 
I like something that Tom posted in his commentary today from RevShark "I think it is better just to stay out of the way until the market acts better. So what if you don’t catch the bottom print? Many people will rack huge losses trying to accomplish that nearly impossible feat. It just isn’t worth the risk."
I noticed that a lot of people jumped into equities "because prices were really low and they were hoping for a nice bounce." The question I kept asking myself was "How do you know it won't go lower? I just couldn't do that. I'd rather go in a day late than a day early. JMHO
 
Today's numbers. Keep your eyes on the "composite column.

[TABLE="width: 513"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"] Date[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 82"] NSDQ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, width: 75"] 5d roc[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, width: 78"] 15d roc[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, width: 65"] 25d roc
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80, width: 78"] Composite
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 71"] W4500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]08/04/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2556.39[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]-7.59[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]-7.47[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]-6.72[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]-21.77[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]619.38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]08/03/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2693.07[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]-2.59[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]-3.71[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]-1.33[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]-7.63[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]660.07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]08/02/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2669.24[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]-6.01[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]-4.05[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]-0.71[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]-10.77[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]656.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]08/01/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2744.61[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-3.45[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]-2.07[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]3.46[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]-2.07[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]677.18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/29/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]2756.38[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-3.58[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-3.62[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]2.59[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]-4.61[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"]680.28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/28/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2766.25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-2.41[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-3.70[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.64[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]-2.47[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"]682.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/27/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]2764.79[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-1.76[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-2.44[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]2.89[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]-1.31[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]684.10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/26/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]2839.96[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]0.48[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]0.50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]8.00[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]8.97[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]703.44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/25/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]2842.80[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]2.81[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]0.95[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]8.65[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]12.41[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]707.94[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/22/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2858.83[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]2.47[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.08[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]8.96[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]14.51[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]715.29[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/21/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2834.43[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]2.60[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.43[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]7.71[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]13.74[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]713.29[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/20/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2814.23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]0.62[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]5.06[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]8.79[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]706.25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/19/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2826.52[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]1.60[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]5.14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]7.08[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]13.82[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]707.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/18/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2765.11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-1.34[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]4.23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]4.59[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]7.48[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]693.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/15/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2789.80[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-2.45[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.84[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.91[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]5.30[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]703.13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/14/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2762.67[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-3.83[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.26[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]2.94[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"]697.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/13/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2796.92[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-1.31[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]4.08[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.53[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]6.30[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]706.95[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/12/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2781.91[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-1.55[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]5.79[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]2.94[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]7.17[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"]702.56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/11/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2802.62[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-0.48[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]7.11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]2.56[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]9.19[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"]705.52[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/08/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2859.81[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]9.00[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]15.23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"]722.16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/07/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2872.66[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]4.82[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]9.17[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.74[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]17.73[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"]726.36[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/06/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2834.02[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]3.84[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]5.80[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]-0.05[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]9.59[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"]717.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]07/05/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]2825.77[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]5.11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]7.05[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]1.03[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"]13.20[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"]714.76[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
jpcavin said:
The question I kept asking myself was "How do you know it won't go lower? I just couldn't do that.
Click to expand...

pssst. you'll never know when it won't go lower. or higher.

when do you plan to plunk down the cash then?

what's it going to take to get you into this car today?
 
Very good JP! I learned a long time ago to not try to call a top or a bottom before it calls itself. Make money and get out!....Or, on the other end, be patient and wait for "proven performance" before getting in to make money. You might miss a great day up....but, you will still make some money....and you might miss a "great" day down...like today.

Lobo :)
 
Lobo said:
Very good JP! I learned a long time ago to not try to call a top or a bottom before it calls itself. Make money and get out!....Or, on the other end, be patient and wait for "proven performance" before getting in to make money. You might miss a great day up....but, you will still make some money....and you might miss a "great" day down...like today.

Lobo :)
Click to expand...

Thanks Lobo. Believe me, it took a lot of self control not to buy in simply because "the prices were so low".
 
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