jpcavin's Account Talk

[jpcavin]

Gotta get some sleep. Goodnight all!

 

[FAB1]

NASDAQ Composite ticker is .ixic in google and ^ixic in yahoo. You input the closing price into the proper cell and then you copy the formula into the blank cells. It computes automatic ally right now because I already added a row for today.
For tomorrow.....choose any filled cell in the 5d roc, copy and "paste special" into the blank 5d roc. Do the same for the other columns....Will help you later if you need the help. Or you can goggle how copy formulas in excel. NASDAQ closed at 2693.07 making the composite -7.63. ( 5d roc=-2.59, 15d roc=-3.71 and 25d roc=-1.33) If you do it right, you should get the same result.
If I go in tomorrow before it goes above 4%, it would be against the rules...Gotta decide if I want to risk it or not.

$COMPX - on MSN gives you the same thing, I like the MSN charts so I will use that.

$COMPX 2,532.41 Down-23.98 -0.94%

 

[jpcavin]

$COMPX -

$COMPX 2,532.41 Down-23.98 -0.94%

What the heck are these numbers?

 

[jpcavin]

$COMPX - on MSN gives you the same thing, I like the MSN charts so I will use that.

$COMPX 2,532.41 Down-23.98 -0.94%

FAB
My spreadsheet does not measure the percentage of price change. It measures momentum. You have over simplified the calculations and ended up with wrong data.
Based on today's close of 2532.41 the 5d roc=-8.13, 15d roc=-9.23, 25d roc=-8.69. Add them up (-8.13) + (-9.23) + (-8.69) and you get a composite roc=-26.04. Still on a downtrend since yesterday it was -21.77. Clear as mud??

 

[FAB1]

Sorry I meant to just paste the COMPX 2,532.41 part to show you its the same as the Yahoo and Google readings. My bad.

 

[jpcavin]

My primitive analysis still has momentum in a negative direction. Staying in G or F until signs of a reversal.

[TABLE="width: 513"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 82"] NSDQ
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, width: 75"] 5d roc
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, width: 78"] 15d roc
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, width: 65"] 25d roc
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, width: 78"]Composite
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, width: 71"] W4500
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]08/08/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2357.69[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-14.10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-14.73[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-16.28[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]-45.11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]556.77[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]08/05/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2532.41[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-8.13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-9.23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-8.69[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]-26.04[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]608.73[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]08/04/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2556.39[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-7.59[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-7.47[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-6.72[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]-21.77[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]619.38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]08/03/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2693.07[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-2.59[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-3.71[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-1.33[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]-7.63[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]660.07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]08/02/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2669.24[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-6.01[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-4.05[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-0.71[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]-10.77[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]656.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]08/01/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2744.61[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-3.45[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]-2.07[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, align: right"]3.46[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]-2.07[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]677.18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/29/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2756.38[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-3.58[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-3.62[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]2.59[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]-4.61[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]680.28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/28/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]2766.25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-2.41[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-3.70[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]3.64[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]-2.47[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]682.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/27/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]2764.79[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-1.76[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-2.44[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]2.89[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]-1.31[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]684.10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/26/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]2839.96[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]0.48[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]0.50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]8.00[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]8.97[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, align: right"]703.44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/25/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]2842.80[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]2.81[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]0.95[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]8.65[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]12.41[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80, align: right"]707.94[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/22/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]2858.83[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]2.47[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]3.08[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]8.96[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]14.51[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80, align: right"]715.29[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/21/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]2834.43[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]2.60[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]3.43[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]7.71[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]13.74[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80, align: right"]713.29[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/20/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]2814.23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]0.62[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]3.11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]5.06[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]8.79[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80, align: right"]706.25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/19/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]2826.52[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]1.60[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]5.14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]7.08[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]13.82[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80, align: right"]707.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/18/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]2765.11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-1.34[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]4.23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]4.59[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]7.48[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80, align: right"]693.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/15/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]2789.80[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-2.45[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]3.84[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]3.91[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]5.30[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80, align: right"]703.13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/14/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]2762.67[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-3.83[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]3.50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]3.26[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]2.94[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]697.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/13/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]2796.92[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-1.31[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]4.08[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]3.53[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]6.30[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80, align: right"]706.95[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/12/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]2781.91[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-1.55[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]5.79[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]2.94[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]7.17[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]702.56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/11/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]2802.62[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]-0.48[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]7.11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]2.56[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]9.19[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]705.52[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"]07/08/11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]2859.81[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]3.11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]9.00[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, align: right"]3.12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, align: right"]15.23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]722.16[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[jpcavin]

Not encouraging. F fund move would have pulled me further out of the hole, instead my fund gave up nearly all of yesterdays gains. Not good.

Looks like I made the right move after all, huh?

 

[FAB1]

:toung: - well I havent had the impetus to keep up with the TMTM, you asked that I awhile ago and Im answering.
I think its a interesting system, just cant help me right now Im afraid. I will start to track it once this market
starts to improve - everybody is saying it will. As for me I have a $ amt that if breached Im out, dont care what
charts say I just wont let go of less money than that.

 

[jpcavin]

:toung: - well I havent had the impetus to keep up with the TMTM, you asked that I awhile ago and Im answering.
I think its a interesting system, just cant help me right now Im afraid. I will start to track it once this market
starts to improve - everybody is saying it will. As for me I have a $ amt that if breached Im out, dont care what
charts say I just wont let go of less money than that.

It's not money you're losing, it's value. Geez!
Hanging on to what Uptrend posted today. If it's an uptrend, we'll see it soon enough...sit tight vaquero!

 

[konakathy]

You've really been doing your homework and seems like you're doing good.

I think I'm going to have to buy you a Blue Hawaiian and come visit your thread more.

Good job - Kathy

And a P.S. To Fab1 - Have a Fabulous Day.

 

[clester]

Patience.

 

[jpcavin]

You've really been doing your homework and seems like you're doing good.

I think I'm going to have to buy you a Blue Hawaiian and come visit your thread more.

Good job - Kathy

Thanks Kathy. But I don't claim to know much. What I have been posting on my thread is very basic compared to the vast wealth of knowledge posted by other seasoned traders/investors in this forum. However, I wonder if knowing less is better? I think sometimes there is too much information overload creating too many mixed "signals".
BTW - The Blue Hawaiian is on me.

 

[jpcavin]

"The opening price reflects the amateur's opinion of value. The closing prices tend to reflect the actions of professional traders.
If prices closed higher than they opened, then market professionals were probably more bullish than amateurs. If prices closed lower than they opened, then market professionals were probably more bearish than amateurs. It pays to trade with the professionals and against the amaterus. " Alexander Elder

 

[Mapper]

JP, I see you are looking at individual equities. I'll tell you what I wish someone had told me when I started doing that. Especially in this low interest rate environment, look at the big names that pay dividends. Good examples would be Abbott Labs (ABT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), McDonalds (MCD), Proctor and Gamble (PG), Exxon Mobil (XOM). You wont get rich quick on these but you will see some stability and the potential for gains. Birch has been talking about the value of the C fund in coming years and I tend to agree with that. I think it would be very natural for people to gravitate toward lower risk stocks after the market turmoil of the last few years. Add on the huge segment of the population nearing retirement age who will want low risk and I think Large Cap dividend players will be very smart. Of course I'm relatively new to this and may be totally wrong...but as I said...I wish someone had turned me on to this earlier.

No, you wont make a quick buck in these but with proper entries you might be surprised at how well you can do. In my humble opinion these are very safe stocks that, especially during a correction like this, you can get a low entry and see some upside potential. Also at lower prices you get more shares for your money. While you hold, every 3 months you get a dividend; it may be small but time is your friend. Add to positions during coming dips and your cost basis will be nice and low. A good source for information on dividend stocks is to read some of the more regular contributors on the Seeking Alpha Investing for Income page. I really like contributions by Dividends4Life, Dividend Growth Investor and Avi Morris. You'll see links to a lot of good tools and methods for determining good entry points to these dividend stocks

 

[jpcavin]

JP, I see you are looking at individual equities. I tell you what I wish someone had told me when I started doing that. Especially in this low interest rate environment, look at the big names that pay dividends. Good examples would be Abbott Labs (ABT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), McDonalds (MCD), Proctor and Gamble (PG), Exxon Mobil (XOM). You wont get rich quick on these but you will see some stability and the potential for gains. Birch has been talking about the value of the C fund in coming years and I tend to agree with that. I think it would be very natural for people to gravitate toward lower risk stocks after the market turmoil of the last few years. Add on the huge segment of the population nearing retirement age who will want low risk and I think Large Cap dividend players will be very smart. Of course I'm relatively new to this and may be totally wrong...but as I said...I wish someone had turned me on to this earlier.

No, you wont make a quick buck in these but with proper entries you might be surprised at how well you can do. In my humble opinion these are very safe stocks that, especially during a correction like this, you can get a low entry and see some upside potential. Also at lower prices you get more shares for your money. While you hold, every 3 months you get a dividend; it may be small but time is your friend. Add to positions during coming dips and your cost basis will be nice and low. A good source for information on dividend stocks is to read some of the more regular contributors on the Seeking Alpha Investing for Income page. I really like contributions by Dividends4Life, Dividend Growth Investor and Avi Morris. You'll see links to a lot of good tools and methods for determining good entry points to these dividend stocks

Thank you Mapper. Your input/opinion is much appreciated. I have looked at some of the individial equities you mentione (JNJ, PG, XOM) as well as some others. I would love to get some of them but they are just too expensive. At the moment, I can only contribute approximately $250-300 every two weeks. Most of those are $40-70 per share which means I could only get 4-6 shares. What can I do???

 

[Birchtree]

Every day I check first thing in my Wall Stree Journal for dividend increase announcements - and there have been many so far this year. Companies are balance sheet rich and are sharing their profits with investors as well as buying back their own stock. Look at MRK and PFE for cheaper priced dividend payers - oh and T is worth a look. When I started investing I used to buy in odd lots of 10 shares - it's all good.

 

[jpcavin]

Every day I check first thing in my Wall Stree Journal for dividend increase announcements - and there have been many so far this year. Companies are balance sheet rich and are sharing their profits with investors as well as buying back their own stock. Look at MRK and PFE for cheaper priced dividend payers - oh and T is worth a look. When I started investing I used to buy in odd lots of 10 shares - it's all good.

Excellent! GLW and PFE are an affordable price. I have 50 free trades for the next 3 months. No fees helps!

 

[Birchtree]

I remember when GLW was at $150 or more back in 2000 - so it's fairly priced at this point - but does have potential. I'll have 30 free trades in September - I'm so ready to start accumulating into my base again. I can now get 360 free trades over 12 months and save $1780. And the good folks at Merrill online just reduced my margin interest to 2.75%. It's time to leverage up thanks to Ben.

 

[Mapper]

Well, I'm just offering a very humble opinion...no particular reason this approach is/isn't correct for you.

I'm sure you know, but let me reiterate...I'm not in any position to give good investment advice (faaaaar from it!) but I'm just throwing some ideas out for you to contemplate on your own, discuss with others and see what works best for you. One more thing, make sure you become familiar with the tax implications of the moves you make!!!! Dividends can complicate tax issues, be sure you find out how your particular IRA works with taxes.

If I was in your position I might move in the following manner.
Considering:
1) The market has just fallen a bunch and it could easily fall further
2) Upswings tend to move slower than downswings
3) My time horizon is long (I don't know what yours is so this may not apply)

I would stay in $$ for awhile to accumulate a little more buying power. How long depends on whether the market keeps sinking or starts climbing again. Meanwhile I'd do research and find out exactly which positions I want. When the time is right make a purchase. I personally wouldn't worry much about position size. Commissions do hurt but in the grand scheme I'm less concerned about that because ultimately my dividends and growth will more than cover those costs.

I too am small time. I started about 3 years ago, while in grad school, and slowly built up buying power. I've sold when I see a little gain and consolidated smaller positions here and there as I've learned. I have finally accumulated enough buying power where I get commission free trades...that sure helps but I just got to that point. I personally like ABT because it has a lower entry price. Some call it a go nowhere stock but if you get in at the right price you can work it's up/down oscillations. I also like GE for it's entry point but do feel it has higher risk. I know a lot of people dislike GE on principle but not me...I've done fairly well with small moves in and out of ABT, GE, JNJ, SYY. If I had more self control, I'd just hold them...but I get impatient. Currently I'm loosing my tail through some forays into leveraged ETFs...I think I'm starting to figure it out, but that isn't for the faint of heart and I certainly wouldn't recommend starting there!!!! I need to work on discipline and keep certain accounts for long-term investments. For now, I have plenty of time available so I can afford to make some mistakes now in the hopes that I will have learned some good lessons by the time my account numbers are more meaningful.

Seriously take a look at those authors I pointed out. My personal favorite is Dividends4Life (LINK) I think there is a lot to be learned.

 

[Mapper]

Companies are balance sheet rich and are sharing their profits with investors as well as buying back their own stock.

I agree completely with this and think it fits very well with my comments about people starting to think more seriously about adding stability and income to their accounts. Savings accounts, money markets, CDs just don't do anything these days. A solid 3 + % dividend is a nice alternative and people are realizing this.

When I started investing I used to buy in odd lots of 10 shares - it's all good.

when I was getting started 10 shares was my favorite lot size. I think my first JNJ purchase was 5 shares.