jkenjohnson
Active member
Re: Signal
Sh-t. I just saw the futures. This is very frustrating.
Sh-t. I just saw the futures. This is very frustrating.
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Jkenjohnson's Account Talk
- Thread starter jkenjohnson
- Start date
jkenjohnson
Active member
My thought is, if we break 1350 for the S&P, we could go much lower. Any thoughts?
jkenjohnson
Active member
S$P is currently at 1350. Will it hold?
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Nope
jkenjohnson
Active member
Well, I got smacked today by losing 2%. Nothing else to say.
System is 7.7% YTD.
System is 7.7% YTD.
Murphys_Law
Member
jkenjohnson
Active member
Re: Signal
If we get a decent bounce today, I'm getting out until the Greece crap, Iran crap, and all the other crap settles out - even though the system remains on a buy. F..k Greece, Iran and all the other countries that constantly f..k up the world.
If we get a decent bounce today, I'm getting out until the Greece crap, Iran crap, and all the other crap settles out - even though the system remains on a buy. F..k Greece, Iran and all the other countries that constantly f..k up the world.
Sensei
Well-known member
jkenjohnson
Active member
WorkFE
Well-known member
Easy JKen.
If you were surprised by yesterdays action you may want to ease up on the coffee
Just about everyone I follow has been talking up a cautious approach for the past 2 weeks. I seen it and did nothing (Stupid me) The question now is:
1. Has the trend been broken and were in for a rough ride?
2. Is this a significant correction in which case there is still room to benefit from it? 10% or more
3. Was this a short panic. <5%
I believe the answers will become apparent over the next few days. IMHO
If you were surprised by yesterdays action you may want to ease up on the coffee
Just about everyone I follow has been talking up a cautious approach for the past 2 weeks. I seen it and did nothing (Stupid me) The question now is:
1. Has the trend been broken and were in for a rough ride?
2. Is this a significant correction in which case there is still room to benefit from it? 10% or more
3. Was this a short panic. <5%
I believe the answers will become apparent over the next few days. IMHO
jkenjohnson
Active member
Easy JKen.
If you were surprised by yesterdays action you may want to ease up on the coffee
Just about everyone I follow has been talking up a cautious approach for the past 2 weeks. I seen it and did nothing (Stupid me) The question now is:
1. Has the trend been broken and were in for a rough ride?
2. Is this a significant correction in which case there is still room to benefit from it? 10% or more
3. Was this a short panic. <5%
I believe the answers will become apparent over the next few days. IMHO
I know, I am just sick of hearing about Greece and Iran, the ECB and all the crap that goes along with it. Oh, and by the way, I haven't even had my morning coffee
.
WorkFE
Well-known member
Oh, and by the way, I haven't even had my morning coffee
I can tell
jkenjohnson
Active member
So far there isn't really any indication to me what is going on. I suspect today may end negative. Maybe the trend is down -at least that is what Uptrend is saying on his thread. You staying in today or taking a wait and see?
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Jken,
Keep things in perspective. A 7.7% return for basically the first two months of the year ain't too bad.
There are a lot of TSP'ers who wish they had that good of a return.
You've obviously been doing something right. Keep up the good work.
JR
Keep things in perspective. A 7.7% return for basically the first two months of the year ain't too bad.
There are a lot of TSP'ers who wish they had that good of a return.
You've obviously been doing something right. Keep up the good work.
JR
WorkFE
Well-known member
Re: Signal
Good question. Investors are a funny group. We see futures up and we see an opportunity to sell and minimize the damage from yesterday. That selling causes the market to go down, maximizing the losses of yesterday and possibly inducing panic. Those on the sidelines potentially see this as a buying opportunity and drives it back up. Back and forth. In reality nothing has changed for the past 2 months.
If I was negative 6% (which I might be soon enough:laugh the dicision would be easy. I'm locked in long term.
But I'm not, so the decision is based on how much of the +6% am I willing to give up. Have not decided yet.
FYI: My future contributions have been going into the G fund for some time now. Should this market continue to trend downward, at some point I will deploy that cash. Also understanding that everyones situation is different is important. If you are diversified losses are contained. Moreso the older you get.
Good question. Investors are a funny group. We see futures up and we see an opportunity to sell and minimize the damage from yesterday. That selling causes the market to go down, maximizing the losses of yesterday and possibly inducing panic. Those on the sidelines potentially see this as a buying opportunity and drives it back up. Back and forth. In reality nothing has changed for the past 2 months.
If I was negative 6% (which I might be soon enough:laugh
the dicision would be easy. I'm locked in long term.But I'm not, so the decision is based on how much of the +6% am I willing to give up. Have not decided yet.
FYI: My future contributions have been going into the G fund for some time now. Should this market continue to trend downward, at some point I will deploy that cash. Also understanding that everyones situation is different is important. If you are diversified losses are contained. Moreso the older you get.
Hey, you're system is still on a buy.
Obviously none of us know what will happen but I'll say one thing. You, and everybody else, is sick of all the uncertainty associated with the Greece situation. That said, Greece is tiny. It's equivalent to one US state reporting some bad, really bad, numbers. Personally, I don't think the real ramifications will be as large as the news peddlers lead us to believe. The more recent news surrounding the Greek situation has started bearing this out...it's been mostly non-events. In a lot of ways the wild volatility Greece used to induce is played out. I think the greater threat is the psychology of the matter. People have been told it will be bad...and may start moving to safety just in case. Obviously if that pessimism spirals it WILL impact the markets.
That said, your system is still showing you that the market is doing well, in spite of all this doom and gloom. My personal theory is this:
There is apparently a lot of big money on the sidelines. Those guys probably understand how important, or unimportant in my opinion, Greece really can be. They might also see the markets are generally healthy. As such, they'll pounce on any pullbacks. If/when that happens everyone else will see the relative unimportance of this Greek event and start chasing again. I know this isn't the standard view of the situation and I know I may VERY wrong, but there's a contrainian view for you.
Obviously none of us know what will happen but I'll say one thing. You, and everybody else, is sick of all the uncertainty associated with the Greece situation. That said, Greece is tiny. It's equivalent to one US state reporting some bad, really bad, numbers. Personally, I don't think the real ramifications will be as large as the news peddlers lead us to believe. The more recent news surrounding the Greek situation has started bearing this out...it's been mostly non-events. In a lot of ways the wild volatility Greece used to induce is played out. I think the greater threat is the psychology of the matter. People have been told it will be bad...and may start moving to safety just in case. Obviously if that pessimism spirals it WILL impact the markets.
That said, your system is still showing you that the market is doing well, in spite of all this doom and gloom. My personal theory is this:
There is apparently a lot of big money on the sidelines. Those guys probably understand how important, or unimportant in my opinion, Greece really can be. They might also see the markets are generally healthy. As such, they'll pounce on any pullbacks. If/when that happens everyone else will see the relative unimportance of this Greek event and start chasing again. I know this isn't the standard view of the situation and I know I may VERY wrong, but there's a contrainian view for you.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Re: Signal
Thanks for all of the comments. I just see a lot of talk about trending down and I have gone from from 11.5% to 7% and my system has not changed. It just makes me wonder if I am missing something. I realize there aren't any models that can predict news driven events. That is why I really get frustrated over these selloffs that are blamed on Greece, Iran etc.
Thanks for all of the comments. I just see a lot of talk about trending down and I have gone from from 11.5% to 7% and my system has not changed. It just makes me wonder if I am missing something. I realize there aren't any models that can predict news driven events. That is why I really get frustrated over these selloffs that are blamed on Greece, Iran etc.
Re: Signal
But news driven events should have their effect on the variables (inputs) that comprise a model...and thus, aggregated, play the necessary role in the model's output.
But news driven events should have their effect on the variables (inputs) that comprise a model...and thus, aggregated, play the necessary role in the model's output.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Re: Signal
Agreed, you are right. Changes in the price of the S fund, which could be news driven, do affect the model output.
Agreed, you are right. Changes in the price of the S fund, which could be news driven, do affect the model output.
