James48843 Account Talk

[James48843]

I saw this today- It’s from a newsletter on Facebook:
From:

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The car market bubble is bursting:

Subprime auto loan delinquency rates have now surpassed 5% for the first time in history.

The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has more than DOUBLED over the last 3 years.

Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak.

At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years.

Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 billion, to a record $1.66 trillion in Q2 2025.

An auto debt crisis is brewing.

MORE than 5% delinquent on Auto subprime

 

[nasa1974]

I saw this today- It’s from a newsletter on Facebook:
From:

Log into Facebook

Log into Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family, and people you know.

www.facebook.com

The car market bubble is bursting:

Subprime auto loan delinquency rates have now surpassed 5% for the first time in history.

The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has more than DOUBLED over the last 3 years.

Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak.

At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years.

Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 billion, to a record $1.66 trillion in Q2 2025.

An auto debt crisis is brewing.

MORE than 5% delinquent on Auto subprime

The cost of a vehicle is out of control. If I had to replace my 2013 F-150 today with the same bells and whistles it would cost me as much as my first house back in1979. So which bubble will burst first? Take your pick there are a few of them out there.

 

[weatherweenie]

The cost of a vehicle is out of control. If I had to replace my 2013 F-150 today with the same bells and whistles it would cost me as much as my first house back in1979. So which bubble will burst first? Take your pick there are a few of them out there.

We were considering buying a Toyota Grand Highlander earlier this year. Between the cost, no vehicles available, the cheap looking finishes even on the higher trim levels, and finally the rock hard seats we ended up getting a 'new' 2023 Ford Explorer King Ranch. Saved $20,000.

 

[nasa1974]

We were considering buying a Toyota Grand Highlander earlier this year. Between the cost, no vehicles available, the cheap looking finishes even on the higher trim levels, and finally the rock hard seats we ended up getting a 'new' 2023 Ford Explorer King Ranch. Saved $20,000.

I know unsold vehicles on the lot cost the dealers money but just think how much markup is with you saving $20,000

 

[James48843]

You know, for some reason today I’m not feeling good about the stock market.

It’s not yet to the “itchy in the back of my neck” stage, but it IS starting to tingle just a bit. “Tingle” usually comes before “itchy. “

That Poland drone attack makes me very uncomfortable.

I’ll let you know if the tingling increases. As it is, I’m perking up and paying closer attention as of today. Getting ready to move a chunk over to G for safety soon. Maybe today, maybe in a week. We shall see.

Good luck.

 

[nasa1974]

You know, for some reason today I’m not feeling good about the stock market.

It’s not yet to the “itchy in the back of my neck” stage, but it IS starting to tingle just a bit. “Tingle” usually comes before “itchy. “

That Poland drone attack makes me very uncomfortable.

I’ll let you know if the tingling increases. As it is, I’m perking up and paying closer attention as of today. Getting ready to move a chunk over to G for safety soon. Maybe today, maybe in a week. We shall see.

Good luck.

And the bombs Isreal dropped in Qatar.

 

[JTH]

That Poland drone attack makes me very uncomfortable.

The newly elected Polish President Karol Nawrocki was just at the White House earlier this month.
Nawrocki’s campaign slogan, “Poland first, Poles first” (he was also the Trump-Backed candidate) so this is a double win for Putin.

"In Poland, officials linked the drone incidents to Russian-Belarusian military exercises, Zapad 25, set to begin near their border."

The bigger question.... is it an exercise, or the beginning of a two-war front for Ukraine?

 

[James48843]

Whenever this run up ends, I have a feeling the downside is going to be bigger than “normal”- just based on how badly companies are now seeing the downturn. It could be a - 0.5% rate down tick.


We’ve had a long upward stretch. Thinking out loud- I’m thinking that we MAY get a rate cut today, or not. But if the cut materialized- I’m pretty sure we’re going to get a “sell on the news “ reaction- if not today- then in the next couple of days.

Hang in tight- or bail out. It’s up to you.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[James48843]

Dang- this market is killing me. The momentum continues to go up, and up, and up. It makes no sense. It’s gotta break sometime.

Meanwhile we quickly are approaching a likely government shutdown, and a fall ft it the stock market is overdue.

I’m thinking I’m moving to G soon- not today, but maybe this week, because I’m just seeing that I’m up over 3% for the month, and there is nothing wrong with moving to safer grounds when you are just not comfy.

Let’s see what the morning brings. Maybe tomorrow will be the day- or maybe not.

 

[Boghie]

A gubmint shutdown is unlikely - the Republicans control all three spending agencies.

The most that can happen is a few recalcitrant Republicans holding out for a couple of days till some odd-ball spending is cut by a little bit. And, really who cares if the gubmint is 'shut down'. September is normally a big revenue month and overall revenue is up every month by a rather sizable amount. Spending will decrease in October because of DOGE by a substantial(ish) amount. That doesn't mean surpluses. That game might be over with the Social Security, Medicaid, and ObamaCare spending we are now doing. I also think there will be minimal pressure to implement 'Washington Monument' closures - they will close the stupid stuff nobody cares about because they don't want the flak.

Also, nobody cares about the FED. The market is now in control and we are not in an emergency.

 

[James48843]

Moving 50% to “G” today.

Will retain C= 20%
S= 20%
I = 10%

Effective CoB today.

Government shutdown appears more likely today.

 

[James48843]

I’m sitting half in G now. Thinking about when to increase that. I got a real bad feeling about this upcoming government shutdown. I’m thinking it’s gonna go poorly. And the market is going to take a hit as a result.

And it may be down for more then just a day or two. I’m thinking it’s coming to get ugly, because the R’s can’t pass anything without the D help, and D isn’t going to help this time. Not without a compromise, and that word doesn’t exist in the R side right now. So it’s going to go to a shutdown.

Here is what Politico is reporting- the government is directing to be preparing to FIRE people , not just lay off.

From Politico :
***

White House to agencies: Prepare mass firing plans for a potential shutdown​

The White House budget office is instructing federal agencies to prepare reduction-in-force plans for mass firings during a possible government shutdown, specifically targeting employees who work for programs that are not legally required to continue.

The Office of Management and Budget move to permanently reduce the government workforce if there is a shutdown, outlined in a memo shared with POLITICO ahead of release to agencies tonight, escalates the stakes of a potential shutdown next week.

In the memo, OMB told agencies to identify programs, projects and activities where discretionary funding will lapse on Oct. 1 and no alternative funding source is available. For those areas, OMB directed agencies to begin drafting RIF plans that would go beyond standard furloughs, permanently eliminating jobs in programs not consistent with President Donald Trump’s priorities in the event of a shutdown.
* * *
More:

White House to agencies: Prepare mass firing plans for a potential shutdown

In memo, the Trump administration says the Reduction-in-Force plans would go beyond standard shutdown furloughs.

www.yahoo.com

That tells me it’s going to be more contentious- and I’m thinking will be a trigger to a major pull back.

So I really think the next move will be down, and my move to be more G, soon. We shall see. There are only three trading days before the shutdown would occur. I’m likely to move more of my money to G before then, unless some settlement is passed into law.

 

[James48843]

I saw this today in the Kobeissi letter-

“This is historic:

US nominal GDP has grown 54% since the 2020 low, marking the strongest economic expansion since World War 2.

This surpasses the 53% growth recorded in 1975-1978. It also corresponds to an average annual nominal GDP increase of 6%, indicating rapid expansion. By comparison, the post-2008 Financial Crisis recovery saw ~23% nominal growth until 2014.

In other words, in Dollar terms, the US economy has grown twice as fast as it did after emerging from 2008.

The US economy is experiencing a historic run.”

* * *

 

[JTH]

I saw this today in the Kobeissi letter-

“This is historic:

US nominal GDP has grown 54% since the 2020 low, marking the strongest economic expansion since World War 2.

This surpasses the 53% growth recorded in 1975-1978. It also corresponds to an average annual nominal GDP increase of 6%, indicating rapid expansion. By comparison, the post-2008 Financial Crisis recovery saw ~23% nominal growth until 2014.

In other words, in Dollar terms, the US economy has grown twice as fast as it did after emerging from 2008.

The US economy is experiencing a historic run.”

* * *

Interesting....

I was curious how that might be viewed from an inflation adjusted standpoint, so I asked AI to crunch the output.

 

[tsptalk]

M2 Money Supply explosion since COVID

 

[James48843]

Here is what I am seeing today-

Both the S&P500 (C fund) and the DowJones Completion Fund (DWCPF) (S fund) are showing continued weakness today. I’m thinking it’s now about halfway through where it will go before reversing and going back up.

Here is S&P- now at 6590. my best guess now is that when it hits 6510-6520 range it will bottom out. Three “O”’s will be recorded, and I think that becomes the foundation for another climb up. Next cycle will again be higher. Maybe.

 

[James48843]

Here is what I am seeing today-

Both the S&P500 (C fund) and the DowJones Completion Fund (DWCPF) (S fund) are showing continued weakness today. I’m thinking it’s now about halfway through where it will go before reversing and going back up.

Here is S&P- now at 6590. my best guess now is that when it hits 6510-6520 range it will bottom out. Three “O”’s will be recorded, and I think that becomes the foundation for another climb up. Next cycle will again be higher. Maybe

Here is S fund too:

 

[TommyIV]

Here is what I am seeing today-

Both the S&P500 (C fund) and the DowJones Completion Fund (DWCPF) (S fund) are showing continued weakness today. I’m thinking it’s now about halfway through where it will go before reversing and going back up.

Here is S&P- now at 6590. my best guess now is that when it hits 6510-6520 range it will bottom out. Three “O”’s will be recorded, and I think that becomes the foundation for another climb up. Next cycle will again be higher. Maybe

Do you see yourself buying in if the S&P hits that 6510–6520 zone before month-end? A couple AutoTracker members, including FireWeatherMet, made aggressive moves into stocks today. I liked the moves—consecutive down days tend to turn me into a buyer—but I’m stuck on the sidelines until October. Curious whether those with IFTs left will benefit from a late-September entry, or if October’s fresh IFTs will actually line up with better prices.

 

[James48843]

Do you see yourself buying in if the S&P hits that 6510–6520 zone before month-end? A couple AutoTracker members, including FireWeatherMet, made aggressive moves into stocks today. I liked the moves—consecutive down days tend to turn me into a buyer—but I’m stuck on the sidelines until October. Curious whether those with IFTs left will benefit from a late-September entry, or if October’s fresh IFTs will actually line up with better prices.

I’ve got one IFT left, so I could go either way. I’m not in any hurry to jump back in, but if the forces align, yes, I works consider it and probably go back into a 30/60/10 mix csi, or maybe a 20/60/20. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

 

[James48843]

Nothing I am seeing this morning indicates progress on budget talks. It still looks like we are less than 48 hours until a shutdown, which could be very, very harmful to the economy.

Time is running out.