James48843 Account Talk

[WorkFE]

Keeping my eye on the market- thinking a 2% quick in and out gain MAY be possible, but it is very , very risky. Do not argue with the trend, which, at the moment, is way, way down.

Agree on the chance of a 2% drive by gain as well as the risk far outweighs the reward. No argument here on the trend either. The NASDAQ is closing on 20% off the highs, clearly the biggest loser at the moment. I had 20% as my mark on the wall but I'm not sure the DOW or S&P get there, that fear and greed index is screaming.

 

[Boghie]

Uh, nope...

Not getting in... Only have a 10% allocation to the S-Fund. I'm thinking there is approximately 0% chance of me moving more into S/I anytime soon.

I'm actually looking at reducing C.

I am showing my confidence again. :laugh:

 

[James48843]

Bam! Im gonna do it.

I’m jumping in and hoping to catch a little 2% bounce over a couple days, then will jump back out again.

Moving to 40% C fund, and 60% S fund at the close of business on Wednesday.

That P & F chart filled in nicely. Now lets jump in and catch a swing up- even if its just a quick short one.


Good luck!


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[WorkFE]

I hate jumping in on a big possible up day and the news headwinds are in your face. However I am rooting for you.

 

[Boghie]

The charts don't matter right now.

It is not a stock market

It is a mess

;damnit

 

[LTJPFED]

I feel like Kramer is somewhere with his button, BUY BUY BUY....lol

 

[James48843]

CRAP!

This is the 3 1/2 % increase I was hoping to catch tomorrow. NOW WHAT? DO i go ahead and jump in? Or is it a day late and a dollar short? And will it cave back down tomorrow, or will we have a day or two more of increases??

Jeeze. I don't know what to do now. Should I jump in?

 

[tsptalk]

 

[joblin20]

Too risky for me personally.

 

[James48843]

Damn.

Well, there goes ten grand in the blink of an eye.


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[James48843]

Ok- so, I’m out of trades for the month. But tonight I was able to do the famed “1% move”.

The TSP software allows you to go in and round up to the next higher percentage.

So, effective COB on Monday, I will be:

G= 88%
F= 1%
C= 2%
S= 2%
I = 2%
L Income = 2%
L 2025 = 2%


That puts a little more into play, whilst maintaining the biggest portion into safety until things stop being so crazy.


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[tsptalk]

Nice to know that still works. I tried it once but I must have been trying to add 1% to funds I didn't own or something. It rejected it.

 

[nasa1974]

Nice to know that still works. I tried it once but I must have been trying to add 1% to funds I didn't own or something. It rejected it.

You are correct. You can only balance within the shares you have. Trying to add 1% to a fund that doesn't have any shares would be considered an IFT.

 

[James48843]

This is telling me we still have a long way down to go. I think these little red circles are going to continue down into the lower 1960’s. I’m thinking it will continue down till then in this cycle.


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[bleeck]

Ticker symbol?

 

[bmneveu]

Looks like the Russell 2000?

 

[James48843]

Ticker symbol?

Sorry- that the $EMW. Wilshire 4500 completion fund- it tracks the same as our “S” fund.

I’m seeing that it could go to 1966 or so before climbing again. That’s if it has a weak week ahead.






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[James48843]

Ok here is a question:

I’m hearing about the Fund “window” coming in June.

I’d like to identify funds that I intended to use through the window in the future. The terms of the window mean it’s not going to be a regular place for me, but I would like to explore and research now, so that I am better prepared when we can start doing it he window.

1. I’d like some kind of an energy/oil fund; and

2. I’d like some kind of an emerging markets expansion fund, to reach into areas where I currently am not getting exposure under the C,S, and I funds.

3. Some kind of precious metal fund.

My intent would be for a long term hedge for the oil fund and precious metals. Just someplace to make money when the stocks are falling.

And the emerging markets just to diversify.

Does anybody have any suggestions for these three, so that I can go research these funds?

I know we can’t buy until June, but I’d like to start thinking about it now.


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[tsptalk]

I hope you don't mind, but I copied your post to a new thread with an appropriate title so others see it.

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-news-etc-/38727-new-tsp-mutual-funds.html

 

[James48843]

I said back in April 7th that I saw the $emw (wilshire 4500 completion fund) falling to 1960.

It closed yesterday at 1958.

Unfortunately it is clear that we’re not done falling yet. Today’s P&F chart is showing a likely another decline of an additional 25 points to 50 points. I’m thinking it’s going to go to 1930, and then roll around that number for a little bit.

Then it either will bounce back the next day , or fall to 1908 or so.

The good news is I think we’re going to get a little up cycle this week. I MAY jump back in to try and catch a +1% or +2% gain, since I still have two IFT’s this month- but if I do, I’m getting right back out again.

The trend is negative, and I’m going to wait until there is a fundamental shift in direction before I try to go back in for anything other than a day or two bounce.

Good luck.



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