James48843 Account Talk

[James48843]

Ukraine update this morning. Russian 122mm and 152mm Field Artillery seen moving to within 12 miles of the Ukraine border this morning. Still no direct evidence they’ve crossed into it, but the fact they pulled out of positions 25 miles from the border, and are now about 12 miles means they are now within firing range (for the 152mm. The 122mm only has a range of just under 10 miles. )

Putin this afternoon says his council advised that Russia give formal recognition to the two contested areas- Crimea and the Donbas regions. This would be in violation of the 2015 Minsk agreement.

It also would result in those Russian troops pouring to Ukraine territory.

I still think Wednesday night/Thursday morning is a more preferred day/time to invade, based on all weather forecasts and on-scene data I am seeing.

Good luck.

More detail from the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...noEz10FuvKrEHSRqZ3dbMR4ocp7s3HD0+kwptJnw1T+/O


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[James48843]

Just watched video on CNN showing tanks (T-72/T-80?) and an amphibious bridging vehicle, along with a single command type BMP style vehicle, all with large, horizontal “Z” IFF marks on the vehicle sides. The IFF markings are all the same- horizontal “Z”, with the front opening at the top.

The report did not say exactly where this was, but it appeared to be new video today/tonight.

I think it has begun.

Watch the futures market.



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[James48843]

Just saw a ticker that said Russian stock market now down 10% today.

US stock futures also very red.

NASDAQ futures now down -3.35%.





Gonna be a shaky week


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[James48843]

Oh- it’s looking painful.
I’m so thankful I’m 90% in G right now.

McDuck - you showed me the LMBM - and it works!

NASDAQ premarket sinking.




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[James48843]

I’m thinking the S&P which is now at about 4300, is going to fall to between 3400 and 3600 before we put in a bottom. I may be wrong, but that’s the resistance line I’m seeing.

Resistance : 3850-ish
Resistance and possible bottom 3350-3600.,

If that one doesn’t hold, I’m not sure what is next.




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[Epic]

Wow........ I've (on very rare occasions) seen charts like that in the past, but have absolutely no clue what the significance of any it means with all the X's and O's, and the Red or Black letters and numbers. I'm glad you can make sense of it !! :fing02:

 

[bmneveu]

I’m thinking the S&P which is now at about 4300, is going to fall to between 3400 and 3600

20% drop from here? oh boy, buckle up.

 

[James48843]

White House calls it an invasion. That’s the official word.

Germany pulls the plug on its pipeline. Russia not happy. Here we go.






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[James48843]

Very nice formation- I’m expecting a slight rebound tomorrow, unless fighting breaks out in Ukraine.

. Otherwise a quick pop upward to 4400-4450 seems to make sense to me as next. Then that will stall out in a few days too. Then down more longer term, I’m thinking.

We shall see.






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[James48843]

And I’m thinking we’re going to go down considerably more in the weeks and months ahead, is the possible impacts of sanctions/war in trade both in Ukraine, and elevated in Taiwan right now as well.

A healthy retracement ahead, and then I think an even better long term recovery - much better than expected two years from now.


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[James48843]

Missiles confirmed striking near airport in Kiev, and artillery in at least 5 other areas. Yes, it appears to be strikes going on.

Markets are going to tank in the morning. No reason for optimism any time soon. I’m sitting almost all in G. Good luck.

All indices stock futures are down around 2% tonight.




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[James48843]

Ukraine Defense Ministry just claimed five Russian jets or helicopters shot down by Ukraine so far, as of about 1:00 am eastern time. No word of any Ukraine losses yet.



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[James48843]

FEAR dominates the markets now. But the slide Down has only just begun. We’ll have a possible very quick reversal for a quick relief rally before long, but I think that’s only very temporary- hours, not a week- and the slide goes downward on for a while.

Not moving anything for me. Staying 90+% in G


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[LTJPFED]

Made my 1st move of the year today but not happy about it, just wanted to try and catch that relief rally. My hope is at least a couple days worth and then I'll move back. I agree there is lots more downside potential. The problem is markets can stay overbought or oversold for a while, just hoping that bounce happens soon and lasts a couple days at least. Thanks for the fear index read. Didn't realize it had dropped down that far.

 

[James48843]

This is a very bad time to try and catch a relief rally. Its more likely that we have lower ahead.

My gut tells me the “S” fund (as seen in EMW) will continue to drop lower. Should drop to around 1900 to 1930 in the next few days.


After that, i have no idea. The Ukraine war is a wildcard.









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[James48843]

Now everything i am seeing is a bloody, long dragged out war blowing holes in economic activity around the world.

Im sitting with 91% in G right now, and im thinking im not going to get a chance to buy until summer or even fall.

((Sigh- )) look out below.

The $EMW chart (s fund) looks like it will fall to 1946 to fill this chart.



After that? I don’t know. If it breaks downward (war news likely) then i don’t know how low it will go.

Our economy is strong, but Putin is harming the globe. Oil prices will hurt too.


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[James48843]

Ugly numbers across foreign markets:


I don’t remember ever seeing 7% down in one day before, not even in the crash of 2008. France has a lot of business contact with Russia. I guess that 7% fall shows people understand the scope of Putin’s war on businesses. It’s recovered most of that drop from earlier this morning, but its still a lower outlook everywhere.


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[Cactus]

Ugly numbers across foreign markets:
I don’t remember ever seeing 7% down in one day before, not even in the crash of 2008.

I remembered the day we had a 10% one day drop in the S Fund so I had to go back and check the numbers. Turns out we had several 7% down days in 2008. Here are some days in that range:

[TABLE="width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29-Sep-2008[/TD]
[TD]-8.77%[/TD]
[TD]-7.04%[/TD]
[TD]-8.84%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15-Oct-2008[/TD]
[TD]-9.07%[/TD]
[TD]-9.30%[/TD]
[TD]-9.74%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12-Nov-2008[/TD]
[TD]-7.24%[/TD]
[TD]-8.11%[/TD]
[TD]-8.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]01-Dec-2008[/TD]
[TD]-8.95%[/TD]
[TD]-10.78%[/TD]
[TD]-7.55%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Sorry to bring back the bad memories, folks. The way I see it is since I survived 2008 and came out smarter, I should be able to survive this just fine. Thank you Birchtree (where ever you are) for all your help.

 

[Tsunami]

I remembered the day we had a 10% one day drop in the S Fund so I had to go back and check the numbers. Turns out we had several 7% down days in 2008. Here are some days in that range:

[TABLE="width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29-Sep-2008[/TD]
[TD]-8.77%[/TD]
[TD]-7.04%[/TD]
[TD]-8.84%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15-Oct-2008[/TD]
[TD]-9.07%[/TD]
[TD]-9.30%[/TD]
[TD]-9.74%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12-Nov-2008[/TD]
[TD]-7.24%[/TD]
[TD]-8.11%[/TD]
[TD]-8.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]01-Dec-2008[/TD]
[TD]-8.95%[/TD]
[TD]-10.78%[/TD]
[TD]-7.55%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Sorry to bring back the bad memories, folks. The way I see it is since I survived 2008 and came out smarter, I should be able to survive this just fine. Thank you Birchtree (where ever you are) for all your help.

There were four days in March 2020 where the S fund was down 9% or more. The worst day was down 14.4%. The C fund was down 11.95% that day.

 

[James48843]

Ok- here is what i am seeing today. We are getting very close to a temp reversal point. I see the EMW sliding into the 1946 or less mark either today, or in the next day or two.

I think its going to fill in those two remaining boxes, and complete the cycle. After that? I have NO idea.



If it DOES hit that mark, then history says it is going to pause for a day or two, and then MAY jump back up a couple percent. THEN, my gut tells me its going to continue sliding.

I see a VERY brief opportunity to potentially make 2% on a quick in and out move over a two day period. But it is risky as hell. It literally is catching a wave . I’M NOT LIKELY to try to catch the bounce, but i am looking for the technical indicators to sed if that little 2% pop takes place or not. My gut says 75% chance it will bounce in the next three days. I MAY look again tomorrow.

I am more concerned with what cones next.

Either the S fund ($emw) holds at about 1910-1940,
-OR-, if it breaks down below that (80% chance it will go lower), then we will have a long, long way to go downwards before another resistance point kicks in.

Keeping my eye on the market- thinking a 2% quick in and out gain MAY be possible, but it is very , very risky. Do not argue with the trend, which, at the moment, is way, way down.





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