James48843 Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

Tom:

Put me down for a low of 2464 in the next three weeks on the S&P500. I’m seeing that as being the support level to expect- maybe 2454 , but I’m on a better than 50/50 feeling of 2464.

Just saying- it’s time for a breather.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

Was thinking the same....maybe even 1 percent lower....closer to 2430.
Thats the level of that "open gap" from early July that Tom Crowley mentioned several weeks ago.

 

[James48843]

Well, here we are.

Gut says no.

But something else says yes.

Moving to "S" fund today.

 

[James48843]

Ohhhhh this hurts Soooooo bad.

I am still 100% FULLY invested, and have gotten the gains of the last two weeks- but I am still thinking that ANY DAY NOW ITS GOT TO COME CRASHING DOWN!!!

Seriously- does anybody else think that we will have a "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" moment if and when the tax plan gets voted on?

1. If it passes, then we are out of news for a while, and the markets will take a break.

2. If, for some reason, it DOESN'T pass, then will all heck break loose and the tower comes crashing down?


I just don't understand how fast it has climbed, and common sense says it's GOT to take a break sometime! And here I sit FULLY EXPOSED!

(SIGH)

 

[Frixxxx]

I just don't understand how fast it has climbed, and common sense says it's GOT to take a break sometime! And here I sit FULLY EXPOSED!

(SIGH)

I think the only thing that will crash the system will be an international incident. Record Consumer Confidence during a retail heavy season, fairly level commodities market and oil is even (for now). I think your exposure is fine.

 

[James48843]

I bailed.

Moving to 80% "G"; 10% L-Income, and playing with 10% "I" fund from here.

Note: I saw that the TSP Thirift Board has been discussing changing the makeup of the "I fund", to a total world fund, as opposed to the current developed markets only international fund. Good, They need to do that. Call me when it is done and I will dump more into the I fund.

Article on the proposed changes to the "I Fund" makeup: https://www.fedsmith.com/2017/11/30/i-fund-changes-proposed-tsp/

Good article.

 

[jonfresno]

Ohhhhh this hurts Soooooo bad.

And here I sit FULLY EXPOSED!

(SIGH)

Good question, When do you close the trench coat. Unfortunately I've had it closed all year languishing in the G fund, so I'll be working until I'm 80... Good job, I'm envious! :smile:

 

[JamesE]

G fund all year? Wow man, you missed out on something really special. You don't get many of these opportunities in life.

You can make more in one or two weeks invested then you can in the G fund for years.

 

[James48843]

Rocket man is being quiet.

No neo evacuation yet from Korea.

So I'm moving BACK into stocks.


Nervous here but taking the risk.

100% "S" today at noon.

 

[James48843]

Two days where the S&P 500 is out powering the small stocks- and auto sales are off- a leading indicator.

Those two things tell me we are "mature" in this cycle up- maybe time for a breather. I'm considering moving to the sidelines- although it may be a few more days to study the charts before deciding to get out and rest a while.

Still sitting 100% right now in "S", and looking for a good exit point to rest. Any day now.

Good luck to all!

 

[James48843]

Once again, the "C" fund and the "I" fund are both moving upward stronger than the "S" fund. Again, that tells me more that this is a more mature stage in the run up than I had thought, and that makes me want to split up my holdings and diversify a bit.

Moving today to a position of "33% "S", 34% C, and 33% "I" fund, effective close of business today.

Note- I love when the year starts out with a nice little bang. Gives me hope.

 

[James48843]

Look at where we are now:

[TABLE="width: 90%"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"]C= +6.04%[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"]S=+4.86%[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"]I=+5.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Can anybody tell me where we've finished a whole month with all three stock funds going up THAT MUCH, and we're only 3/4 way into the month?

in HISTORY?:

We've only had like ONE MONTH *(In Oct of 2011 we did a positive in double digits[TABLE="class: tspStandard, width: 717"]
[TR]
[TD="class: packed, width: 16%, align: right"]10.93%[/TD]
[TD="class: packed, width: 16%, align: right"]14.09%[/TD]
[TD="class: packed, width: 16%, align: right"]9.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
but that was only after a NEGATIVE in double digits the month before!

We've had returns totaling this much or more very very seldom in my 30 years of watching this.

We are, right now, in I think the TOP TEN BEST RETURNS MONTHS EVER-


I'm telling you- this is NOT NORMAL, and it's GOT TO BREAK ANY DAY NOW.

 

[nasa1974]

For 2017 the "C" fund did not have a negative month, the "I" fund had 2 negative months (June & August) and the "S" fund had 3 negative months (March, June & August).

 

[weatherweenie]

I'm telling you- this is NOT NORMAL, and it's GOT TO BREAK ANY DAY NOW.

I agree, it's not normal. However, that cautiousness kept me out of the market for most of this profitable month.

 

[Whipsaw]

James, you're gonna spook the herd! =:-o

 

[Cactus]

It reminds me of January 2013 where we had:

C Fund: 5.18%
S Fund: 6.96%
I Fund: 4.45%

This won't keep going up at that rate for ever, but what do you do about it? You can get out now and loose any possible further gain or you stay in and ride out any possible future correction. As I see it this is still a buy and hold market and trying to time it will only reduce your returns. That's how I only ended up with half the possible returns in 2013.

 

[James48843]

UNCLE!

bAILED TODAY.

went 50% "G" and 50% "L Income".

To me that is extreme safety.

Hope I did the right thing.

Good luck!

 

[James48843]

Thinking today is the day things begin to sink.

Jobs overall didn’t look too bad, but black unemployment jumped from 6.7 to 7.1.

Still no pressure on wages. I think we are now at the point where growth takes a small breather, the market drops a little, and then in a month or two we Can reassess.


Glad I am out.

The pause that refreshes-


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[kb9nvh]

I think you timed it right ....I'm about ready to give it up too and lick my wounds and enjoy what I have left from jan

 

[James48843]

Now...what to do...what to do.

Sitting on the sidelines with a pile of cash- is this all there is? Or is this just the typical third day fakeout rebound, which leads to another tumble downward in a day or two?

I hate days like this- because you just can't tell for sure which way things are about to go. I'm TEMPTED to jump back in for a quick in and out gain try.


But then again, there is honor in capital preservation.

I need some more coffee and to think about this one for a bit. Still have another 45 mintues before the deadline to decide....

What do YOU think?

Should I jump back in? If yes, why? If no, Why not?

 

[Cactus]

I'm already in so I'm going to ride it out. If I were out I would wait for a confirmation of a turn and a resumption of of the upward movement before going in. I don't think we are going to get that right away.