Iran - Impact in the Middle East

[WorkFE]

Or Iran could go further- with a lot of other reactions that would not be pretty. Could send fighters to attack US troops in Afghanistan or Iraq, of course. that COULD be the reaction of Isreal attacks.
Or any of a number of other possibilities I could think of. Invasion of Iraq. Or a provocation on the Black Sea. Or sinking of American ships in the Gulf. Or attacking Arab neighbors.

Not because of political wrangling, serious provacation only plus they would need the go ahead of heavy weights China or Russia. If not the outcome would not be pretty for Iran.

All within the realm of current capabilities.

Capabilities they would like to still have at the end of the day. As of today I don't see it. Their neighbors are already nervous.

 

[James48843]

So your thinking is that regional war is more likely than grousing and containment with a flurry of fluff?

Not sure.

See, that's the thing.

With something as unpredictable as "What will Iran's reaction, or, for that matter, the reaction of all the other countries in the region be, if Israel does a major, massive strike against Iran?" - then counting on a fincancial market reaction to such a scenario is dangerous.

If something like an Israeli major strike happened, would I bet my entire retirement fund that the markets will be calm, and not tank? Not sure I want to make that bet.

More likely than not? Now you are asking me to quantify the likehood. I can't do that- it's far outside my area of expertise.

All I am saying is that there is a whole, wide range of possible outcomes in a case like that- so banking on only the Straits of Hormuz being blocked, and banking that the other countries in the region will object to the Straits of Hormuz being blocked, is a very risky gamble.

Just remember- Iran could block those Straits for years- Saudi Arabia will find another way to get oil out. SOME, not all, of the other countries COULD find ways to get oil out.

And of course, they could all just sit back, keep their valuable oil in the ground, and wait for the price of oil to go ballistic. Provided they all have sufficient cash-on-hand- a war in that region wouldn't really adversely affect them.

Heck- it could even jack the price of oil up so high they get double their money on half the amount of shipments.

That's all I am saying.

A big realm of possibilities to keep in mind.

 

[coolhand]

Looks like they are laying the groundwork for possible future military action.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=auDTZ6.879ZE

Iran has provided weapons and as much as $200 million a year to help the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah re-arm itself to levels beyond those in 2006, when the group waged a war with Israel, the Pentagon said.