Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

[nasa1974]

I'm confused too? I thought we had a Buy Signal. I'm sitting in F Fund with no IFT's left but went ahead and moved 100% G as I understood the email said to do. I was late again! I hope that won't hurt me.

DAW, You have up to noon tomorrow to change your mind. If you decide to stay 100% F then just do a cancel before noon.

 

[david.alan.williams]

Sounds like you and I are getting confused because of the 2 trading systems he is using, the similarity in their names, and the recent renaming of one of the systems. Combine that with speed reading to try to get the IFT in on time.

I think the old name, Intrepid_Trader went 100% I, then 100% F, and now 100% G.

D

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

There are two trading strategies for TSP. This was explained in the 01-04-2011 commentary.

I'll comment post it again tomorrow.

My "Intrepid_Timer" went from G to I to F and now to G fund this month.

My "Intrepid_Trending" went from G to I to 50G/50S and remains at 50G/50S.

The trending account is based 50% on my trading system and 50% on a longer term sentiment indicator which will tend to keep you in trades longer to take advantage of longer term trends.

I personally am following my "Intepid_Timer" moves but the other one gives people another option. I am having a really hard time pleasing everyone.....

I went to 100% G today because I'm out of IFTs, even though my system is giving a buy signal.

 

[CrabClaw]

He has 2 systems, trader and trending. trending has been 50S 50G since the last sell signal. trader went to 100F at that signal and then to 100G with this new buy signal as the IFT limit wont let him back into stocks. Trending remains at 50S 50G

 

[ArchAngel]

Let me take a crack at this.

I_T got a buy signal for equities which is bad for bonds (F). Since he can't IFT into C, S or I he's moving his F into the safety of G.

BUT, since he can do anything he wants with his mutual funds and ETF's, he's selling the shorts and buying longs there.

Am I even close?

EDIT: Wow! Three responses since I started typing this!

 

[CrabClaw]

oops, walked on you IT, sorry

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

You are correct ArchAngel.

No problem CrabClaw, appreciate the help!

Now I'm off to get a Texas driver's license. If I was 20 years younger, or 30, is this something I would "Tweet"? :laugh:

 

[david.alan.williams]

Yup! I'm Tracking now. I thought that was correct.

IT...can't please everyone!!! You are doing a great job. I think when the trial is over, everything will settle down.

If you don't mind, for learning purposes, why did you pick G over F? Do you feel F will lose money between now and the end of the month? I assume yes.


D

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Yup! I'm Tracking now. I thought that was correct.

IT...can't please everyone!!! You are doing a great job. I think when the trial is over, everything will settle down.

If you don't mind, for learning purposes, why did you pick G over F? Do you feel F will lose money between now and the end of the month? I assume yes.


D

I really don't know what the F fund will do the rest of the month. Part of my F fund trading strategy incorporates the premise that bonds typically go down when stocks go up. So since I got a buy signal for stocks, I exited bonds (F fund). What you'll find with any good trading system is to keep it simple..............

Now bonds and/or stocks go up or down, I'm not gonna sweat it because I'm safely in the G fund. I won't be making the 2% this month that I set as my goal, but again, this goal is an average. I'll make it up next month and my stress levels will stay down and help keep my health in tact so I can eventually enjoy the money I make each year.............. Some systems don't take this into account.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I'm getting the feeling that Goldman may be setting up for a tank job tomorrow with the whole Facebook IPO fiasco plus the fact that they will be reporting revenue from their own trading accounts separately from their client accounts. Could it make for another "embarrassment"? :embarrest:

Goldman Sachs down 4.69% today. I actually called one right!!! :laugh:

 

[bigdawg45]

Your post today was kind of confusing at first, it said your system was to buy equities in red and down below it said if your in TSP this means sale C, S, and I funds and go to G. I understand now, but it would have been clearer if you had of deleted the lines in black that were leftover from when the system was on sale the other day. Did not get the email alert till after 12 est.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Your post today was kind of confusing at first, it said your system was to buy equities in red and down below it said if your in TSP this means sale C, S, and I funds and go to G. I understand now, but it would have been clearer if you had of deleted the lines in black that were leftover from when the system was on sale the other day. Did not get the email alert till after 12 est.

I send my trades to Tom and he then posts them to my premium page. I brought this to his attention and we will most likely go back to just posting my new signal changes to another page.

Are you signed up for the alerts with a work email? I know the signal was suppose to go out at out 11:30am ET. I received on gmail at 11:36am ET. Some work emails go through a lot of filters and such and take longer to receive. You may want to sign up for a free yahoo, gmail or hotmail account.

Thanks for the input!

I_T

 

[FAB1]

Goldman Sachs down 4.69% today. I actually called one right!!! :laugh:

Yes you did! Very good

 

[DrScooter]

I'm still confused my guess was that one should BUY C-S-I but that you no longer had any moves left for the month so you were going to G?? I was sort of hanging with IT Trending so I just held at 75 G and 25 S.

Still don't get how the market can be up over 50 points and I gain a few cents, then down 12 points and the S Fund loses 2%?

Sorry fellows I'm just a bit clueless, seems to be more Casino than Investing.

 

[Lostdawg]

For DRScooter
Using todays close for DWCPF (S-Fund) of 672.59... 50 points up would be a gain of 7.4% roughly. Maybe you were think the DOW up 50 points and you only gained a few cents in S Fund? Hope this helps.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Yes DrS, you are correct. I went to 100 G because I had no IFTs left to go into equities.

I agree with Lostdawg, you must be talking about the Dow. The S&P 500 , which the TSP's C fund tracks, is actually a better indicator of the overall market because it has 500 stock market companies in it. This is why it is considered the stock market benchmark index. The Dow only has 30 companies in it and was being propped up today because of IBM. Since it only tracks 30 large companies, one or two can determine it's ultimate fate. In fact, only 8 of the 30 were up today, but since IBM was up over 3% today, the Dow didn't lose hardly anything today.

The S&P 500 is also a collection of large cap companies, but there are 500 of them so one or two companies are not going to effect the overall index like the Dow.

The Wilshire 4500, which the TSP S fund tracks, is actually an index of over 6000 mostly small and mid-sized cap companies. Because they are smaller companies, the index will be more volatile than the Dow or S&P500. Meaning on market up days, it will tend to go higher than the other 2 indexes and on down days, it will go lower.

Traders prefer to use small cap indexes like the Wilshire4500, and in particular the Russell 2000, to trade because volatility has the chance to increase gains. It'll also increase losses.

I won't even talk about the I fund because there are too many variables in it to discuss in a short time. I will say it's made up of international funds and is greatly affected by the price of the dollar.....................

 

[JTH]

Yes DrS, you are correct. I went to 100 G because I had no IFTs left to go into equities.

I agree with Lostdawg, you must be talking about the Dow. The S&P 500 , which the TSP's C fund tracks, is actually a better indicator of the overall market because it has 500 stock market companies in it. This is why it is considered the stock market benchmark index. The Dow only has 30 companies in it and was being propped up today because of IBM. Since it only tracks 30 large companies, one or two can determine it's ultimate fate. In fact, only 8 of the 30 were up today, but since IBM was up over 3% today, the Dow didn't lose hardly anything today.

The S&P 500 is also a collection of large cap companies, but there are 500 of them so one or two companies are not going to effect the overall index like the Dow.

The Wilshire 4500, which the TSP S fund tracks, is actually an index of over 6000 mostly small and mid-sized cap companies. Because they are smaller companies, the index will be more volatile than the Dow or S&P500. Meaning on market up days, it will tend to go higher than the other 2 indexes and on down days, it will go lower.

Traders prefer to use small cap indexes like the Wilshire4500, and in particular the Russell 2000, to trade because volatility has the chance to increase gains. It'll also increase losses.

I won't even talk about the I fund because there are too many variables in it to discuss in a short time. I will say it's made up of international funds and is greatly affected by the price of the dollar.....................

Thanks IT, please allow me to add that companies within the indexes are weighted, some weighing more than others.

 

[DrScooter]

Thanks, I'm not a total boob, but close. Anyway I-T my question is this, since I was in the S Fund (at 25%) as I missed the original move to F (which did actually net me some cash) when I saw your BUY signal today, I did not move my 25% out of the S fund. I know I would have lost todays S Fund anyway even if I went 100% G., However, I noted your "Trending" and figured that since you had 50% G and 50% S holding, for me at 25% S and 75% G made sense,(?) as you (I think) went to a "buy" Equities.

I assume unless there is a SELL equities at some future point leaving 25% in the S fund does make sense. That is IF i'm making any sense.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Thanks, I'm not a total boob, but close. Anyway I-T my question is this, since I was in the S Fund (at 25%) as I missed the original move to F (which did actually net me some cash) when I saw your BUY signal today, I did not move my 25% out of the S fund. I know I would have lost todays S Fund anyway even if I went 100% G., However, I noted your "Trending" and figured that since you had 50% G and 50% S holding, for me at 25% S and 75% G made sense,(?) as you (I think) went to a "buy" Equities.

I assume unless there is a SELL equities at some future point leaving 25% in the S fund does make sense. That is IF i'm making any sense.

Makes complete sense to me. I'd of done the same thing.

I'm actually thinking this current buy signal for my "Timer" system may not last long, but we'll see. The "Trending" part of my system I have no idea. Could get a sell in a couple days or a couple weeks.............you can get more info on my "Intrepid_Trending" strategy from my 01-04-2011 commentary.

I'm trying to make my service helpful to different types of investors.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

IT just testing to see if we're payin attention, but I think the wilshire 4500 is made up of 4500 stocks out of the wilshire 5000 largest US stocks including the S&P 500 stocks. The 4500 doesg not included the S&P 500

Yes DrS, you are correct. I went to 100 G because I had no IFTs left to go into equities.

I agree with Lostdawg, you must be talking about the Dow. The S&P 500 , which the TSP's C fund tracks, is actually a better indicator of the overall market because it has 500 stock market companies in it. This is why it is considered the stock market benchmark index. The Dow only has 30 companies in it and was being propped up today because of IBM. Since it only tracks 30 large companies, one or two can determine it's ultimate fate. In fact, only 8 of the 30 were up today, but since IBM was up over 3% today, the Dow didn't lose hardly anything today.

The S&P 500 is also a collection of large cap companies, but there are 500 of them so one or two companies are not going to effect the overall index like the Dow.

The Wilshire 4500, which the TSP S fund tracks, is actually an index of over 6000 mostly small and mid-sized cap companies. Because they are smaller companies, the index will be more volatile than the Dow or S&P500. Meaning on market up days, it will tend to go higher than the other 2 indexes and on down days, it will go lower.

Traders prefer to use small cap indexes like the Wilshire4500, and in particular the Russell 2000, to trade because volatility has the chance to increase gains. It'll also increase losses.

I won't even talk about the I fund because there are too many variables in it to discuss in a short time. I will say it's made up of international funds and is greatly affected by the price of the dollar.....................